ESTONIA
The press reports the strengthening of Russia's positions in the Middle East and describe Vladimir Putin's statement made in Tehran as Russia's support for the political hardliners in Iran. Commentators believe that such an anti-American step, made in the Kremlin's foreign policy interests, is not wise.
"Putin has reaffirmed Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear power program. In fact, he has encouraged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to continue uranium enrichment. It is a paradoxical decision, since Russia would not benefit from Iran developing nuclear weapons. Moscow probably believes that playing against the Untied States will benefit its geopolitical interests without endangering peace. Someone must have skipped history classes and went for a beer instead." (Postimees, October 17)
"U.S. President George Bush and the Israeli authorities have to realize that the time when they punished or flogged Muslim radicals jointly with the Kremlin is over. The heads of the five Caspian states will meet every year, and their foreign ministers will meet twice a year. In other words, the Devil will sit at the same table with the men (Putin, Aliyev, and others) whose opinion even Bush respects." (SL Ohtuleht, October 23)
LATVIA
The Caspian summit in Iran is described by the local press as Russia's political breakthrough. Moscow has proved that it can find allies and force Washington to back down.
"By supporting Iran's right to a nuclear power program, Putin has reaffirmed that Russia had not abandoned the idea of regaining its status as a serious player on the international political scene, especially in the resources-rich Middle East." (Republika.lv, October 19)
"Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have agreed to build a railroad along the Caspian to link their transport infrastructure and connect it to Russia's rail system. This will give Russian commodities access to the Gulf ports, and open the door for commodities from Iran and Central Asia to the Black and Baltic Seas and Russia's northern ports. We see the development of a North-South transport corridor of global import, although the geopolitical effect will be significant too: Moscow will be able to reach out to the Gulf." (Business&Baltija, October 18)
LITHUANIA
Lucrative energy contracts which Russia has offered to the leading European countries can hinder the strengthening of European solidarity. Observers believe that the results of the Moscow visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy will have a negative effect on the European Union's energy policy.
"Russia's place is among the world's great powers, Sarkozy said in Moscow, expressing the traditional French view of Moscow. It also means that major changes in Russian-French relations are unlikely soon. Sarkozy's visit to Moscow has reaffirmed that international relations are a concert performed by an orchestra of 'big countries' in which Russia is assigned one of the leading roles." (Veidas, October 20)
BELARUS
The local press sees a connection between the attractive idea to build a second leg of the Yamal-Europe has pipeline, voiced by the Russian prime minister, and a meeting between Andrea Rigoni, the special rapporteur on Belarus in the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE), and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which was followed by the opening of the European Commission's office in Belarus.
"Only recently Russia refused even to discuss the second leg [of the gas pipeline], lobbying instead the Nord Stream pipeline along the Baltic seabed bypassing Belarus. Lukashenko made several attempts to prove that laying the pipeline underwater across the Baltic Sea would be unprofitable and dangerous, but Moscow refused to listen. So, to make the Kremlin listen, you should open an office of the European Commission. The task now is to make Russia act on its offer. One can play on Russia's fear of losing unruly satellites, and anything - including the European bluff - will go in such a game." (Solidarnost, October 20)
Some experts believe that Russian and Western representatives worked hand in glove in this case.
"The moves made by Moscow and Brussels seem to be surprisingly well coordinated, with one player mounting economic pressure, and the other offering Lukashenko a solution, that is, money and a pardon for his sins in return for political reforms. Have Europe and Russia come to terms over Belarus? The circle around Belarus is almost complete." (Belorussky Partizan, October 22)
UKRAINE
Experts believe that Russia, which keeps hydrocarbon prices down, is indirectly encouraging dependent attitudes in the Ukrainian economy and postponing the introduction of energy-saving technologies and industrial modernization. However, most specialists say that gas prices will be raised soon.
"Whether we hold elections or not, and no matter who wins - the 'orange' or 'blue-white' forces - Russia would still raise prices. It will pursue this policy irrespective of whether we owe it anything for gas or not." (Den, October 17)
"Gazprom will continue to bang on the doors of every Ukrainian. There is nowhere to hide [from it]." (Oligarkh.net, October 18)
MOLDOVA
The local media has been energetically discussing the legality of mentioning "the Moldovan language" in official EU documents. Some journalists see this as Romania's political concession to Russia. Others believe that this is a necessary step in the current foreign policy, since Russia is playing a major role in the region now.
"There are businessmen, journalists and officials, as well as ordinary people in Chisinau and Bucharest who are prepared to do Russia's bidding, for different reasons. This is all the more dangerous that Moscow, which became rich overnight, apparently wants to establish its 'fifth columns' in all of the former socialist countries to stand up against the Untied States and the EU in all spheres. In this situation, Russia will turn the slightest sign of weakness, indifference or absence of solidarity among Romanians against us [Moldova]." (Jurnal de Chisinau, October 19)
"Moldova wants to join the EU, but its progress is hindered by the problem of Transdnestr, which was engendered, among other things, by the fear of approval of the Romanian language [as the state language in Moldova] and annexation to its western neighbor [Romania]. Moldova has been forced to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy because its very existence can be put into question, and not only due to a potential assimilation into Romania." (Moldova Suverana, October 23)
ARMENIA
One of the hottest topics there is the alleged absence of serious presidential candidates in Russia.
"It is widely believed that no matter who is elected Russia's next president, Vladimir Putin will still hold the reins of power, becoming prime minister after United Russia wins the parliamentary elections. The mechanism of doing this is not clear, though. Unlike Armenia, Russia has so far not revised its constitution to slash presidential powers and turn some of them over to the government formed by the parliamentary majority. That is, it is not clear how Putin will take over power if someone else is elected president. Will there be a constitutional reform? Or will Russia opt for distributing power 'by default'?" (Golos Armenii, October 23)
GEORGIA
As usual, the local media discuss the possibilities of Georgia's accession to NATO. Experts recommend assessing its accession chances realistically and taking into account the Russian factor.
"A NATO summit will be held in April in Bucharest. If everything goes well, the process of Georgia's accession to the bloc will become irreversible after it." (24 Saati, October 20)
"NATO will accept Georgia only if this does not create additional problems for Europe. It is clear that there will be no direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, but Russia will fight to the end for attaining and preserving its influence in the Caucasus and the Caspian region. The only question is, how boldly will it act?" (Rezonansi, October 22)
The opposition accuses the Tbilisi authorities of complying with Russia's economic expansion.
"Russian interests are growing stronger in the Georgian energy monopolies, because pro-Russian lobbyists in the authorities are working to honor their commitments. This is a result of corruption." (Akhali Taoba, October 19)
"It is especially alarming that Russia is taking over strategic assets in the energy, communications and banking sectors. This may cost the country its economic, and later political, independence. Indicatively, the expansion of Russian capital began after the Rose Revolution in 2005." (Sakartvelos Respublika, October 20)
AZERBAIJAN
The local media outlets claim that the useless Caspian summit in Tehran points to Moscow's intention to preserve its domination in the Caspian region in a situation where the sides' positions largely differ.
"The Russian president has proposed establishing a defensive military union in the Caspian. The Kazakh president, on the contrary, suggested demilitarizing the Caspian by limiting naval operations there to coast patrols. Indeed, who needs a defensive union if the Caspian states pledge not to attack each other and not to allow third countries to use their territory for aggression against any of the five Caspian states? In other words, Russia is trying to secure its military-political hegemony in the Caspian basin, to dictate its rules of the game to the other Caspian states, including in the construction of trans-Caspian pipelines." (Zerkalo, October 17)
Some publications believe that the Azerbaijani authorities should negotiate Caspian issues directly with the concerned regional states, such as Turkmenistan, avoiding Moscow's involvement.
"Just like the previous summit, the second meeting failed to adopt the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, which is the main goal. Turkmenistan's position is most probably influenced by Russia, which wants to maintain uncertainty in the southern Caspian. In this situation it would be much better if Azerbaijan negotiated the issue directly with Turkmenistan." (Ekho, October 18)
KAZAKHSTAN
The media highlight the issues of regional security discussed at the recent Caspian summit in Tehran. Analysts believe that Russia and Iran pressed for a ban on the presence of third countries' troops in the region in order to curtail the proliferation of the United States and European countries in the region. But this can boost the position of China as an additional center of power.
"Russia is so far Iran's best counterbalance to the Untied States in the region. It is not surprising therefore that regional security was on the agenda of the summit in Tehran. However, Moscow and Tehran do not see [their] union as a lasting relationship, viewing each other as potential regional rivals if Washington's influence is weakened there. Russia increasingly believes that it is Iran's stance that is hindering the approval of the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Tehran is aware of the danger of a possible clash with Russia, and so is looking for a counterbalance to it in China, which has become more active in the region." (Liter.kz, October 18)
The duality of power in Russia, which the local press predicts if Putin becomes prime minister under a new president, can greatly destabilize the political situation and even provoke a crisis.
"On the other hand, social and political risks in Russia will not vanish if Putin stays [as president]. They may not be apparent in socio-political processes, but they will not go away, becoming a long-term trend. Besides, life poses new challenges, against which the irreplaceable leaders of Russia and the CIS are trying to apply the same old political instruments. But these instruments are becoming increasingly inadequate. Unsettled social problems and risks are gradually becoming more and more explosive. This is like accumulating snow, which can result in a social avalanche, a catastrophe." (Respublika, October 19)
UZBEKISTAN
Although the Tehran summit failed to agree on the status of the Caspian Sea, Moscow still won because its participants decided to establish the North-South transport corridor, which will give Russia access to the Gulf.
"The trilateral agreement between Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Iran to build a railroad towards Russia in the north and towards the Gulf in the south is a historic document, which sealed Turkmenistan's initiative of establishing the North-South transport corridor. According to preliminary estimates, the future railroad will annually transport millions of tons of cargo, bringing huge profits to all participants in the project." (Vesti.uz, October 18)
KYRGYZSTAN
The local media is surprised at Russia's repeated refusal to heed Kyrgyzstan's request to extradite the son of former president Askar Akayev.
"Aidar Akayev was put on the wanted list by the Prosecutor General's Office, but Russia argued that the procedure infringed on its sovereignty." (Kabar, October 19)
TURKMENISTAN
Observers focus on the anti-American aspects of Iran-Russia rapprochement.
"Following Russian-American squabbles and Washington's entreaties against friendship with Iran, Moscow has made its move, which the United States doesn't know how to interpret. The Russian president has long stopped hiding from the Americans that Iran is the best trump card in Russia's policy, which the Kremlin plans to use to influence Washington's stance on several crucial international issues. This alarms Washington, but it cannot do anything to change Moscow's policy." (Gundogar, October 19)
Some journalists point to possible problems in Turkmen-Russian economic relations due to the implementation of the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline project.
"Gazprom currently buys the bulk of natural gas produced in Turkmenistan. But if 30 billion cubic meters of gas is annually supplied to China according to the relevant contract, Turkmenistan will not have enough gas to maintain its supplies to Russia. Only [President] Gurbanguly Mukhammedov seems convinced that Turkmenistan will have enough reserves to honor its commitments to China." (Gundogar, October 19)
TAJIKISTAN
The opposition press doubts that the commissioning of the first phase of the Sangtuda hydropower plant will improve the energy situation in the republic.
"According to RAO UES CEO Anatoly Chubais, Sangtuda-1 will come on stream in December. RAO UES, which holds a 75% stake in Sangtuda-1, will be able to set world-level electricity prices. Can we hope then that the citizens of Tajikistan will have electricity and heat in their homes this winter?" (Nigokh, October 18)
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