The CIS and Baltic press on Russia

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ESTONIA

The press reacted negatively to the way the European leaders at the EU-Russia summit in Portugal tried to sidestep sensitive topics regarding Russian policy. The press attributed this attitude to the fact that Europe depends on Moscow for energy supplies. "The EU leaders have not publicly uttered a single critical word addressed to their guest, although previously they were often critical of Moscow. Democracy, human rights, the freedom of the press, world rules of trade, Georgia, Kosovo and Iran - these are just some of the issues the European Union could raise with Russia." (Eesti Paevaleht, October 27) "The European Union has been sitting on its hands watching Portugal allow the Russian bear to sneak up and then strike where it hurts the most... To avoid such meetings the EU countries ought to have realized that they should play with the Kremlin by the same rules the Kremlin plays with them." (Postimees, October 29)

There is a lively discussion of the possible appointment of State Duma Deputy Dmitry Rogozin, known for his nationalist views, as Russia's permanent representative to NATO. This is thought to be a sign of the Kremlin's displeasure with the alliance's policy. "Rogozin's former hostility towards NATO, coupled with his chauvinistic views, will be Moscow's way of signalling to the West that it does not regard that organization to be of any importance. (Eesti Paevaleht, October 26)

LATVIA

Political analysts believe that the Russian political elite is not ready for a change in the top leadership, and goes to unprecedented lengths to keep the incumbent president in power. "An active campaign is underway, with letters and mass action in major Russian cities in favor of a third term for the president. Pressure on the president is building up and the aim is probably not only to demonstrate the popular love for Putin... but also to lend added legitimacy to the decision which has already been made." "Everybody is guessing how Putin will manage to stay in power. People don't dare to believe that the opposite may happen." (Chas, October 29)

LITHUANIA

Observers were surprised at the tough language of the Russian president when he warned the Western countries against being hard on Iran. Putin's admonition to Europe to show more patience in dealing with the Kosovo issue was described by the press as threatening. "Vladimir Putin's last meeting with the European Union in his capacity as president of Russia was full of anger and bitterness. After no chance was left to agree on any fundamental issue, the outgoing Russian president Vladimir Putin began the meeting in Portugal with some bitter words. Madmen brandishing razors was how he described Western society trying to solve problems in the hot spots in the world by tough actions." (Lietuvos rytas, October 27)

Comparing the behavior of the Russian and Lithuanian prime ministers in the face of growing inflation, observers describe Viktor Zubkov's policy as more effective. "The Russian prime minister is not like his Lithuanian counterpart Kirkilas. The latter just sighs and shrugs, together with his finance minister... The Russian authorities grab the authors of cartel collusions by the collar... It is another question how much of it is PR and how much is real actions. But it is clear that the Kremlin is going to flat out nip that danger in the bud. Well, dictatorship is sometimes a more effective mechanism than democracy." (Litovsky Kurier, October 25)

BELARUS

Experts speak about the plight of the Belarusian opposition which neither Russia nor Europe seem to be willing to support. "Moscow will talk only with those who represent a real force. But Europe behaves in the same way; unlike Moscow, it supports the weak and the humiliated, but it seeks to do business with the strong... It is a great folly to foment anti-Russian sentiments while being oriented towards Europe... About a million Belarusians go to Russia every year in search of earnings. It would be interesting to know for whom they will vote; for those who propose building an ‘iron curtain' near Smolensk?" (Belarussky partisan, October 24)

Analysts are critical of the position of Belarusian business in the Russian market. "Selling Belarusian goods in Moscow is prestigious, but it looks as if it is not an easy thing to do... But what to do - times have changed. Even not well-to-do Muscovites hardly ever buy footwear and clothes to last years; they buy them for a season, for three or four months as long as they are fashionable. That is why the philosophy of the Minsk light industry (clothes should wear long) goes over well in Moscow only with thrifty pensioners. They like Belarusian goods because they remind them of the Soviet past (Khartia-97, October 24)

UKRAINE

Belarus' proposal to build a second line of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline has had some resonance. Observers think the project may provide Moscow with a trump card in its gas negotiations with Kiev. How will it benefit Russia? It will relieve it of the need to "react sensitively" to changes in Ukrainian policy. It will relieve it of the responsibility for slip-ups and theft of gas because there is hardly any stealing in Lukashenko's Belarus, especially compared to Ukraine. Besides, Beltransgaz has far outstripped the Ukrainian gas transportation system in terms of modernization and reliability. One hardly need discuss the choice between wily, inconstant, dodgy and politically unreliable partners and stable and professional allies." (Provokatsia, October 30)

Commenting on Moscow's decision to freeze prices on some foods, the media stressed that the situation in the Russian market will indirectly help solve the problems of Ukrainian suppliers of livestock products to the Russian Federation. "Many consumers have stopped buying European cheeses... As Russian producers cannot fully meet the demand, the gap will be filled by Ukrainian cheeses, especially since they cost 20% cheaper than Russian ones." (Ekspert-Ukraina, October 29) "The opening up of the market for Ukrainian cheeses is a matter of  weeks." (Kommersant-Ukraina, October 25)

MOLDOVA

A worsening of relations between Russia and the US may have a direct impact on the solution of the Transdnestr problem, according to the pro-Romanian press. Observers think that for the US an interim solution could be putting Transdnestr under UN and NATO trusteeship. "The US seems to be set not only to curb Russia's revenge-seeking plans, but to defeat it on its own ground... Washington is trying to freeze Moscow out of the Caucasus and Ukraine. It witnessed its cooperation with Georgia and signs of a shift in the relations with Armenia... As regards Transdnestr, its interest lies in securing the eastern borders of the EU and Ukraine. (Jurnal de Chisinau, October 26)

ARMENIA

The media report that as a reward for Yerevan's pro-Russian course the Kremlin has offered the incumbent Armenian President Robert Kocharyan an executive position with the biggest Russian company Gazprom once he finishes his term in office. "Moscow wants to reward Kocharyan for his services that had turned Armenia into a ‘Russian outpost'. It looks as if Kocharyan is inclined to accept Moscow's gift." (Aikakan Zhamanak, October 25)

According to expert opinion, the replacement of the chief Iranian negotiator with the European Union, Ali Larijani, with Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Jalili signals Teheran's attempt to sort out its problems with Moscow in connection with the building of the Bushehr nuclear plant. "Larijani is not a pro-Western member of the Teheran elite. One can speak about his pro-Western leanings only in the sense that he has shown no preference towards Russia and, faced with a choice between two evils - the West and Russia - opted for the West. The candidacy of Jalili is quite acceptable in terms of Iranian-Russian relations because he will pursue a more pragmatic course." (Novoye Vremya, October 25)

GEORGIA

Reports about Abkhaz refugees being forced out of Sochi as part of the city's preparations to host the 2014 Winter Olympics have caused a strong negative reaction in Georgia's media.

"The new policy of Russian authorities involves ethnic cleansing in the city of Sochi ahead of the 2014 Olympics." (Gruzia-Online, October 27)

"The expulsion of the refugees is unlawful... Preparations for the Olympics must not resemble a deportation campaign... If it continues this way, the refugees will need the same kind of help that was provided to Georgian nationals subjected to deportation from Russia last year." (Novosti-Gruzia, October 26)

AZERBAIJAN

The press in Azerbaijan highlights a recent flurry of diplomatic activity by Russian officials in Iran.

Azerbaijani analysts point out the contradiction between U.S. efforts to toughen sanctions against Iran and Washington's fears the measure may push the Islamic Republic into an alliance with Russia.

"Washington is highly cautious in making any assessments of the Russian president's visit to Iran... In the States, they know only too well that today's Russia sees a Russian-Iranian alliance as something inevitable and that the very fact of such inevitability prompts many in Washington to take every effort to prevent the events from taking such a twist. Iran, in line with the concept of [former U.S. National Security Adviser] Zbigniew Brzezinski, is one of the world's five major geopolitical centers and the establishment of Russian control over it would be fatal for American dominance in Eurasia and the world at large." (Zerkalo, October 27)

KAZAKHSTAN

The media in Kazakhstan say the lack of an agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea makes Astana oriented more toward Russian energy projects in Central Asia.

"The Caspian has not yet been formally demarcated in line with international regulations, but the sides concerned are already trying to partition the skin of the not yet caught ‘Caspian gas bear.' But those natural gas projects involving Central Asian states, Azerbaijan, the United States and the European Union may be ignored, to put it roughly, by Iran... It is easy to imagine what will happen in case plans to lay a submerged gas pipeline get underway.  Iran claims to own 20% of the Caspian Sea floor, and will not have any Americans or their European allies trespass. " (Delovaya Nedelya, October 25)

The press is quite skeptical of Europe's attempts to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies. But it effectively regards Russia's steps to bring to a minimum the role of Ukraine, Belarus and Poland as transit countries. "The North European Gas Pipeline is under construction, and it has drawn both investors seeking large profits and opponents of Russia's growing dominance of the energy production and delivery market.... On the one hand, Europeans will get guaranteed access to Russian natural gas. On the other, the European Union's dependence on Russia will grow further, making Moscow even more powerful and, possibly, more self-confident in the international arena." (Gazeta.kz, October 29)

KYRGYZSTAN

Political analysts say that the stability and level of Russia's economic development are evidence supporting not only pro-president political structures, but also the president's guidance of such structures. "As is known, the Russian and Kazakh presidents support one party which they regard close to their spirit, goals and objectives. And what is wrong with this? They have considerable backing in parliament... For example, Russia has paid off its loans and has practically paid off its foreign debt. Big Russian companies have strong places in the world market and a number of them have become leading world companies. The peoples of these countries live in peace and are confident about the future. So, what is wrong if  Kurmanbek Bakiyev's intention is to achieve the same in Kyrgyzstan?" (Zhany Ordo, October 26)

TURMENISTAN

Experts say that despite a number of populist decisions and projects, the situation of the Russian-speaking minority in Turkmenistan leaves much to be desired.  "Despite the demonstrative steps by Turkmenistan's new leadership, such as days of the Russian language, a promise to open new Russian schools, and plans to send students to Russian universities, there has been no significant change in the situation of the Russian-speaking population. Russian-speakers in Turkmenistan are still discriminated against in admission to state institutions, mainly officer positions in the army and in law-enforcement and security agencies." (Gundogar, October 26)

TAJIKISTAN

According to analysts, Tajikistan has the advantage of balancing between the geopolitical poles.

"Tajikistan's geopolitical orbit, tightly holding it in the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Euro-Asian Economic Community, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, guarantees stability in the country, but cannot solve all the problems of future development. The most pressing issue is to provide Tajikistan's economic breakthrough into the future by finally solving the problem of energy security. It is clear that neither Russia, nor China, nor Kazakhstan can help. Tajikistan must remain a member and maintain close cooperation in the existing regional organizations - the CIS, the OSCE, the CSTO, and the SCO - and also seek active support from both Western and Islamic countries by developing fruitful relations with them." (Biznes i politika, October 25) 

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