MOSCOW. (Ivan Zakharchenko for RIA Novosti) - On December 18, the South Koreans will elect a new president.
Their choice will not only determine the future of their country for the next five years, but also the developments on the Korean Peninsular and North-East Asia as a whole.
Decisions will be made either by the advocates of freedom and liberalism that were in power for the last ten years, or calculating and resourceful conservatives from among the business community.
Each ballot, which looks like a restaurant bill, contains the names of 10 candidates for South Korea's top position, but the main struggle has unfolded between two candidates - Chung Dong-young, the former leader of the ruling Uri Party and Lee Myung-bak, ex-Mayor of Seoul and big business owner.
Under the South Korean Constitution, no head of state can be re-elected for a second term. During the last five years, the current President Roh Moo-hyun successfully continued the policy of rapprochement with North Korea, launched by his predecessor, Nobel Peace Prize winner Kim Dae-jung. However, inside the country he was criticized for the soaring housing costs, growing unemployment and a widening gap between the poor and the rich.
Public opinion polls conducted by sociologists and journalists before the elections have shown that Lee Myung-bak, the former head of Hyundai Construction, is two times ahead of his liberal rival Chung Dong-young, who started his career as a television journalist during the struggle against the military dictatorship.
The South Korean press reports that most of Lee Myung-bak's supporters are young people in the 20-30 age group. This mood reflects an obvious change of a whole generation in South Korea in the last decade. The former dissidents that opposed enmity with North Korea and the intellectuals, who had once been suppressed by the dictatorship but eventually received power, have been replaced by young people that have grown up in a new environment and are more interested in material things than other values. The older generation also wants economic stability and thoughts about prosperity are more on their minds than, say, freedom of speech.
Both presidential nominees are promising economic reforms - better conditions for small and medium-sized businesses, new jobs and lower taxes. But the promises of the politician and the businessman carry different weights -the Mayor of Seoul in 2002-2006, Lee Myung-bak literally changed the city beyond recognition. One of the results of his activity was the appearance of a man-made transparent river in the polluted center of the capital - its graded steps have become the favorite place for walking.
Lee Myung-bak, who represents the Grand National Party, the main opposition force in the country, is quite confident in himself, despite a pre-election scandal. The Prosecutor's Office is investigating suspicions of his involvement in financial fraud. A prominent Korean businessman, who had been suddenly deported from the United States, alleged that Lee Myung-bak owned a company through which about $42 million were stolen in 2001.
This allegation has not damaged his popularity - sometimes negative publicity is even helpful. It is enough to recall the 1992 election race, when a son of the then presidential nominee Kim Yong-sam was charged with major corruption. But his father won the election and became president.
A decade later, during the 2002 presidential race, one of the supporters left the coalition with the then presidential nominee Roh Moo-hyun one day before the elections but this seemingly crushing blow did not prevent him from winning the elections.
The current elections will show the impact of negative publicity and scandals on the status of the presidential candidates.
Lee Myung-bak's ad banners on web sites are already portraying him as a tumbler with a devil-may-care attitude, who is promising prosperity to his nation.
At the same time, some analysts in South Korea fear that for quite a lengthy period, at least until his inauguration on February 25, 2008, his potential victory will be marred by scandals linked with corruption.
Reporting a cross-section of public opinion on these events, local newspapers are writing that Lee Myung-bak's supporters do not mind him being dishonest if he makes life better. He is promising to reduce to the minimum the tax on real estate for single-dwelling families, help small and medium-sized businessmen and not interfere with big business.
As for relations with North Korea, which may substantially influence the settlement of the nuclear problem and stability on the Korean Peninsular, the results of the elections may bring certain alternations but no dramatic changes. The current President Roh Moo-hyun has done all he could in order to involve business in major projects in North Korea, linked railways and highways and made official and public contacts a routine deal.
If a conservative but pragmatic leader comes to power, he would not gain much by putting an end to these undertakings. North Korea is not interested in confrontation, either. Recently, the North Korean press has not criticized Lee Myung-bak, as distinct from an even more conservative policymaker - independent candidate Lee Hoi-chang. But his chances of victory are not great, whereas the North Korean leaders may still have to deal with Lee Myung-bak.
Observers believe that a policy of rapprochement with North Korea may be replaced with a course towards tardy pragmatic cooperation, linking economic aid with political demands, primarily in the nuclear sphere. The nuclear problem became exacerbated after North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October 2006. On the other hand, it stepped up the diplomatic dialogue, which the Six (Russia, the United States, China, both Korean states and Japan) have conducted for more than four years. They have expanded a mechanism of curtailing the North Korean nuclear program and it is still in operation despite initial delays. It will continue working as long as the sides abide by their commitments.
Aggravation of relations between the two Korean states may complicate another project of the Six - to convene direct participants in the 1950-1953 Korean war - the United States, North and South Korea and China - in order to sign a peace treaty instead of the current truce. This will also depend on the position of the Americans. So far, they have refused to discuss even the prospect of a peace treaty. As for North Korea, it will be ready to renounce its nuclear weapons only when it no longer feels a threat to its security.
Ivan Zakharchenko is an international political analyst.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
