MOSCOW. (Alexei Makarkin, deputy director general of the Center of Political Technologies, for RIA Novosti) - Russia-Belarus rapprochement is necessitated by geopolitical realities: Russia has no other ally in Europe.
Until just recently Russia was maneuvering between Belarus and Ukraine, threatening to suspend oil and gas supplies in response to Lukashenko's intractability and considering (at least hypothetically) alternative candidates ahead of the Belarussian presidential elections. Belarus was considered to be much less important to Russia than Ukraine; the latter was believed to be the main and most promising partner in the region.
The undisputed priority for the Ukrainian government, victors in the "orange" revolution, is full integration with Europe, including the Euro-Atlantic military structures. Moreover, during a visit by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko to the US it was decided to consider whether Ukraine could be linked to the U.S. anti-missile defense system. Though this was more likely a politically motivated declaration than the start of a real project, Moscow was far from enthusiastic about the news.
The intention to increase cooperation between Russia and Belarus in air defense, which was announced at a recent meeting between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, can be seen as a response to Kiev's desire for integration with American military structures. The two leaders apparently discussed the completion of the joint air defense system. As distinct from the CIS air defense system, which has existed for some time, the Russian-Belarussian system envisages joint command.
Belarussian Defense Minister Leonid Maltsev announced last year, "With the establishment of a joint air defense system we shall pass from cooperation to direct subordination." The air defense system will be controlled from a joint command center. The Supreme Council of the Russia-Belarus Union State will select the commander.
The two countries are already conducting regular joint exercises using their anti-aircraft systems. For example, last August the Belarussians took part in training exercises held at the Ashuluk training ground in Russia's Astrakhan region. And new large-scale maneuvers were held just recently.
In addition, it has been agreed that in 2005 Russia will provide Belarus with a number of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems. Aitech Bizhev, deputy Commander-in-Chief of Russia's Air Force, says that once the S-300s have been delivered to Belarus, they will be on combat duty, protecting the air space of the two countries.
The establishment of a joint air defense system was first discussed back in 1996, when the defense ministers of the two countries signed a protocol on the formulation of the guiding principles for the creation and operation of the system. In October 1999, the Russian and Belarussian defense ministries signed an agreement stating that they would develop a joint system, and procedures for the joint use of military infrastructure were established. This project however has not been completed.
The official position is that the main reason for the delay has been differences between the legislation of the two countries, but there has clearly been sufficient time for the necessary amendments to have been made. It is more likely that Belarus has been wary of a rapid rapprochement, fearing that it would lose control over decision-making. (This has also been the case with the project to introduce a common currency, which would be issued from Moscow. This project has been in the pipeline for a few years now.)
Today the situation looks different. Although the Belarussian authorities are adamant that a "velvet" revolution could never occur in their country, they cannot ignore the "domino effect," especially when the Belarussian presidential elections are scheduled for next year. The opposition will probably take the opportunity to stage mass demonstrations similar to those held in Ukraine. "Velvet" revolutions usually coincide with elections.
Lukashenko is still less acceptable to the West than Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma was in his time, and so he has no alternative but to seek a full rapprochement with Russia, one that also encompasses defense.
Russia has not raised objections to the Belarussian government's tough domestic policies or to last year's referendum, which removed restrictions on the number of presidential terms any one person could serve. Therefore, it is not surprising that the project to create a joint air defense system is gaining momentum.
At the same time it is obvious that were Belarus to undergo a change of power, as Ukraine did, it could lead not only to the joint air defense system being dropped but also to a fundamental change in Belarussian foreign policy. And the political stance of the new authorities, whether they are left-wing or right-wing, would not necessarily make a difference. In Moldova, for instance, the communists ran in the 2001 elections on a pro-Russian platform, but are now clearly oriented toward the European Union. This explains the interest of the Russian authorities in preserving the status quo in Belarus, an interest that stems from both geopolitical and military strategic considerations.
