U.S. IN CASPIAN REGION AND RUSSIA'S POSITION

MOSCOW, (RIA Novosti commentator Pyotr Goncharov). Iran has offered support for a Russian initiative on the Caspian Sea states alone establishing a joint rapid reaction force in the region.

"These Caspian states should come to terms on the establishment of a rapid reaction force," said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi.

Russia's initiative initially envisaged more than efforts to combat international terrorist attacks against the region and to avert other common threats. It was also designed to prevent countries from outside the region, above all the U.S., from becoming involved in the affairs of the region, which the U.S. has included in the zone of its interests. This fully met Iran's interests. Will Russia and Iran be able toprevent an American presence in the Caspian region?

The idea of forming a rapid reaction coalition force in the Caspian region is not new. In August 2002, the Russian Caspian flotilla conducted naval exercises in the Caspian to practice rapid reactions not only to terrorist attacks on oil pipelines but also to emergency situations in Caspian countries. A high-ranking representative of Iran's navy who was present at the exercises praised Russia's naval strength there and recalled with delicate irony that both Moscow and Tehran were in favor of "preventing the militarization of the Caspian region." His irony was to the point because Tehran's call for the other Caspian states to join Russia's initiative may seem belated.

These apprehensions have come on the back of a recent lightning visit to the capital of Azerbaijan, Baku, by U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. The visit was made in great secrecy, which immediately reminded one of a statement by General James Jones, NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, in which he said that the U.S. planned to establish military bases in the Caspian area and was drafting the Caspian Guard program for the coming decade. Under this project, the U.S. attaches particular importance to Azerbaijan, seeing it as a prime location for deploying mobile rapid reaction forces and for solving its foreign policy problems in the region, mainly those concerning Iran.

Significantly, the U.S. program also includes setting up special task forces, whose mission will be similar to those Russia has proposed for its regional plans: "a rapid reaction not only to terrorist attacks at oil pipelines, but also to any emergency situations in the Caspian countries." A command center equipped with most up-to-date radars will be established in Baku and the entire Caspian zone will become its responsibility. Some analysts say the Azerbaijani authorities have already agreed in principle to the proposal. The implementation of the Caspian Guard program will pose a threat primarily to the defense interests of Russia and Iran, as it includes observation systems for the air and sea, and will place a vast territory under U.S. control.

As they try to consolidate the naval forces of the Caspian states in their common interests, Moscow and Tehran are in favor of preventing the Caspian's militarization. However, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are not concealing their desire to modernize their naval forces, in which the U.S., in contrast to Iran and Russia, is helping them. Kazakhstan's navy will soon receive a ship displacing more than 1,000 tons free of charge. The republic will establish military infrastructure along its coast using American money. The U.S. is offering the same to Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

Furthermore, Washington is said to be considering a plan of forming a tripartite union of the U.S., Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan in the region. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and even Turkey may eventually join it. Meanwhile, Russia's initiative is only being discussed in the media. All five Caspian states are unlikely to reach a mutually acceptable solution to the "demilitarization, non-militarization or limited militarization" of the Caspian area. The continuing wrangling over the Caspian Sea's legal status only serves to prove this, as Iran and Turkmenistan have chosen to reject the understandings reached by Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan on dividing the Caspian seabed.

But one thing is certain. The arrival of the U.S. in the Caspian region will certainly upset the policies Moscow and Tehran pursue in a region that is important for both countries.