IS A COLOR REVOLUTION POSSIBLE IN AZERBAIJAN?

MOSCOW (Alexei Makarkin for RIA Novosti). Four presidents attended an April session of the GUUAM regional organization in Chisinau.

Uzbek President Islam Karimov ignored it because his country was preparing to withdraw from the organization (the news was made public officially on May 5, changing GUUAM into GUAM). Viktor Yushchenko (Ukraine) and Mikhail Saakashvili (Georgia), who did attend the summit, were brought to power by color revolutions. Vladimir Voronin (Moldova) prevented a revolution in his country by becoming a sharper critic of Russia than the revolutionaries. The only exception was Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. He went to Chisinau but does not want this to affect his country's relations with Russia and also hopes to prevent a color revolution at home.

Color revolutions are timed for elections, as the methods behind them are based on using public protests against the real or imaginary falsification of election results. OSCE observers have criticized all the elections held in Azerbaijan, which Aliyev's opponents can use as an additional argument. This April the PACE Monitoring Committee once again criticized Baku for failing to ensure the freedom of speech and meeting, which are vital conditions for free and fair elections.

The next elections (parliamentary) will be held in Azerbaijan this November. The opposition is pinning its hopes on them, thinking that Aliyev's regime will be weaker than his father's.

Three political forces that are opposing Aliyev's regime - Musavat, the People's Front and the Democratic Party - have created a coalition that hopes to win the elections. Musavat and the Democratic Party are led by the former parliament speakers, Isa Gambar and Rasul Guliyev (the latter lives in emigration in the U.S.). The leader of the People's Front is Ali Kerimli, a comrade of the late president Abulfaz Elchibei.

In April the regional activists of these parties met with U.S. Ambassador Reno Harnish, which provoked great displeasure of the political forces that are loyal to the current authorities.

There is one more opposition bloc, New Policy, which consists of prominent figures, including the first president of independent Azerbaijan, Ayaz Mutalibov, who now lives in Moscow, Lala Shovket Gadzhiyeva, the leader of the National Unity Movement, Etibar Mamedov, former head of the National Independence Party, and former premier Ali Masimov. According to Gadzhiyeva, "if large-scale falsifications are registered during the parliament election, there will be a revolution."

The so-called Gongadze case greatly helped to discredit Leonid Kuchma in Ukraine. Azerbaijan could be exploded by the murder of an opposition journalist, Elmar Guseinov.

What do the Baku authorities hope to achieve? They hope that Azerbaijan's participation in GUAM will prevent the export of a revolution into the country (Georgian activists helped Ukrainians last year and Ukrainians are now helping Belarussians). Aliyev is acting as a political ally of Yushchenko and Saakashvili, which makes him "untouchable" to the activists of color revolutions.

Second, GUAM membership is complemented with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline project, which the West went to great lengths to promote. The project is to be commissioned on May 25 in the presence of Condoleezza Rice. By the end of the year, when the parliamentary election is due in Azerbaijan, the first oil tanker will depart from Ceyhan. Therefore, Baku's leaders do not believe the West will rock the boat in such a strategic country as Azerbaijan.

Third, Azerbaijan is involved in the U.S.-Iran confrontation. The April 12 visit of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld to Baku is indicative in this context. There were rumors before the visit that a U.S. military base might be established in the country. They have been refuted so far, which is not surprising, as the truth may sour Baku's relations with Tehran and Moscow, but this does not mean that the base may not appear some time in the future.

It is notable that Robert Simons, a special representative of the NATO Secretary General to the Caucasus and Central Asian countries, has announced that, though the bloc's leaders have not approved the deployment of troops in the South Caucasus for the protection of the oil pipeline and other economic facilities, the issue may be discussed later.

The Americans are energetically cooperating with Azerbaijan's security services. Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov said: They "are helping us fulfil several very interesting and important security programs."

Will this guarantee peace and tranquillity in Azerbaijan? Hardly. The problem is that not everything in color revolutions depends on the external or economic factors. A great deal depends on the effectiveness of the ruling regime and the ability of the opposition to use the available resources. If the regime preserves its own stability and becomes the main factor of stability in the country, the revolutionaries will have to wait for another chance. But if the regime becomes eroded, the opposition may use this situation to claim the role of a guarantor of stability, just like it did in Georgia.

Alexei Makarkin is the deputy general director of the Center of Political Technologies

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial staff.