MOSCOW (Alexei Makarkin, deputy director general of the Center for Political Technologies, for RIA Novosti) Recently, the expansion of ties between Washington and Baku has become obvious.
The opening on May 25 of the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, by-passing Russia, is one of the best examples of the recent trend. According to many experts, this project bears clearly geopolitical rather than economic significance. It fits perfectly in the framework of other projects related to the US military presence in that strategically important region.
From time to time, information leaks into the media about the US plans to deploy its military contingents in Azerbaijan. The sources hint at the possibility of "temporarily deploying mobile forces," which might stay in the region for a rather prolonged period. These forces are supposed to provide security for the pipeline and exert pressure on Iran and Russia.
Officials in Baku denied these rumors, although it does not mean Azerbaijan would not contemplate the possibility of talks on the issue. The Azeri Defense Ministry took a different position on another issue, though. It did not confirm or deny information about the possible creation of a military bloc consisting of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, a sort of NATO "subsidiary." Some sources assume Ukraine might become a member of the new alliance later.
The new prospect certainly looks good for NATO. The reason is the three post-Soviet states do not meet the criteria for joining NATO - insufficient level of democracy, existing territorial problems (both in Georgia and Azerbaijan), the presence of military forces of the states that do not make part of NATO (Russian bases in Georgia, the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol). A "mini-alliance," though, would not have such strict requirements, and its members might be always encouraged by the promises to become NATO members in the mid- or long-term perspective. At the same time, such a solution will increase Turkey's role in NATO as a compensation for the delay in its integration with the European Union. In the future US military bases might be deployed in Georgia, as well. It is worth mentioning that the pipeline passing through the territory of the three states will become a foundation of the future military bloc.
Such a development will certainly hurt Russia's interests. That is why Russia attempts to delay the withdrawal of its military bases from Georgia for as long as possible and receive guarantees that the US bases will not replace them in the future. Political risks for Armenia and Iran will increase as well. Armenia still remembers the Turkish genocide during World War I, and Iran remains a potential target of the US invasion.
However, the US expansion in the region might face an unexpected obstacle. It is well known that there is a fierce clash between the ruling regime and the secular opposition defending democratic freedoms in Azerbaijan. Recently, the police in Baku harshly dispersed an opposition meeting. Dozens of people were beaten unmercifully.
The Americans cooperate both with the official regime and the opposition in Azerbaijan, trying to avoid laying eggs in one basket. However, there is a "third force" in the country that gradually gains popularity. It unites representatives of radical Islam, popularly called wahhabites on post-Soviet territory.
The leader of Azeri Communists Ramiz Akhmedov directly accused the country's traditional Islamic leaders of supporting the growth of wahhabites' popularity. The problem is that these leaders start losing their authority among the believers and that, according to Akhmedov, forces people to search for "pure" Islam. Normally, their search leads them to the radical camp.
It is a known fact that radical Islamists despise the US and the West in general not less than they despise authoritarian Muslim regimes. Therefore, the growing popularity of wahhabites in Azerbaijan might create serious problems both for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the plans of future military cooperation between Baku and the West.
