MOSCOW, (RIA Novosti political commentator Yuri Filipov) --Political experts in the West call former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov "Russian Yushchenko."
For instance, the French Courrier International believes Kasyanov could unite the rightist and the leftist opposition, becoming their candidate during the 2008 presidential elections, which might repeat the "orange scenario."
Taking aside inevitable nuances that always downplay the most daring political predictions, Kasyanov's image as the hero of the Russian opposition challenging the Kremlin bureaucrats looks impressive, indeed.
First, the 47-year-old candidate for the role of a new national hero has appealing looks somewhat resembling Viktor Yushchenko before the Ukrainian president got dioxin poisoning. Contrary to many other candidates for the role of key leaders of the Russian opposition, he enjoys popularity among female electorate, which constitutes an active majority in Russia.
Second, Kasyanov has four years of experience as Prime Minister. He never made a serious mistake during his term even remotely resembling the 1998 national default or the hyperinflation of the first half of the 1990s.
The sudden resignation of Kasyanov's Cabinet before the 2004 presidential elections and the ensuing abstinence from the political activity create a certain aura of "an innocent victim" around him. The Russians usually sympathize with such people and support them.
Third, Kasyanov skillfully, correctly and, in a way, "attractively" criticizes the existing regime. Avoiding personal attacks and long deliberations on the subject, he says Russia, which should become a "normal European state," is going in a wrong direction at present." Like all other opposition activists, Kasyanov is appalled by the "Yukos case," and calls Putin's political reforms aimed at consolidating and strengthening state authority "the dismantling of the democratic foundation of the Constitution."
Finally, Kasyanov has not lost popularity abroad and among the international organizations, despite the fact that he has been away from the state affairs for almost a year. He continues to visit Europe and the US, often delivers lectures there. In general, he is perceived abroad as a serious political figure. It is obvious that many politicians in the West do not have any trouble imagining Kasyanov as one of the members of the G8 club in three-four years.
Unfortunately, the Russian reality quickly puts all these dreams down to Earth. The popularity of the former Premier is not enough to attract, for example, the potential political partners. They consider him as a political rival in the first place. As soon as Kasyanov hinted at his political ambitions last winter, Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky conducted a press conference and reminded the Russian public that it was Kasyanov who had been at the head of the government and built the bureaucratic/oligarchic system, which he attempts to criticize now.
The Liberal-Democratic party immediately reacted to Kasyanov's recent statements about possible unification of the right-wing and left-wing forces on the basis of democratic principles. Its deputy in the State Duma Alexei Ostrovsky called upon law enforcement authorities to make public all the materials that point at Kasyanov's possible troubles with law and check his involvement in corruption.
Regardless of whether the accusations against Kasyanov are grounded or not, it is obvious that the political parties do not want this "non-party retiree and lady's man," as they call him, to interfere with their political game. "We do not need Kasyanov's help at all," says Ivan Melnikov, the second man in the communist party. "Besides, representatives of leftist and rightist opposition in Russia are too different to be united and led by a common leader," he continues.
Probably, Kasyanov is a bit too late. The time of charismatic political figures like the first Russian President Boris Yeltsin is quickly fading away. He could address the electorate directly, without looking back at the supporting political parties, which sought his support instead.
If Kasyanov wants to bring those times back, he can only count on his personal charm and political acumen.
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