MOSCOW (Alexander Bedritsky for RIA Novosti) - Global climate change is no longer just a scientific problem.
If the current global temperature growth rate persists, the scale of the potential natural change is hard to fathom - as hard as it is to imagine the huge volume of work that will have to be done for us to adapt to the new environmental conditions. Adapting to the fluid climatic situation is key for Russia, whose steady economic development is heavily dependent on it.
Russian Frost Dwindling
The Rusisan winter has seen its customary image, usually characterized as "harsh," undergo increasing changes. For instance, winter in Moscow in 2005 was unprecedented, with temperatures of zero degrees, give or take a few, and virtually no snow on the ground in January. Over the past 40 years, January in Moscow has become 5.5 degrees warmer, and Siberia cannot boast its former frost any longer either.
According to the Federal Hydrometeorological Service (Rosgidromet), the climate in Russia is likely to change quickly. The cold seasons of the year will become much warmer, prompted by changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the warming of the ocean. The scale of Atlantic cyclones has increased, and cyclones have expanded into the northern area. As a result, 2004 proved both to be the warmest year in Russia for the past 15 years, and witnessed the greatest number of dangerous phenomena: 300.
Dangerous natural phenomena such as major flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts and abnormal temperature fluctuations have been on the rise in Russia. They have been most numerous in the east of the country and in the North Caucasus. The material damage caused by floods alone stands at over 6 billion rubles annually.
Global Warming and the Threat to Russian Agriculture
Rosgidromet forecasts another major problem for Russia in the shape of a longer vegetation period and increased potential evaporation combined with dwindling precipitation during the warm season of the year. This means that droughts and other phenomena detrimental to key agricultural areas of the country are looming large. According to Russian scientists, if the country sticks to current agricultural technologies, which are far from cutting-edge, it may face an 8-10% drop in the average crop capacity in the European part of the country as early as 2010, and a 15-20% reduction by 2030-50.
Another problem that the country may face in the near future is a thaw of permafrost due to higher air temperatures in winter. It is hard to gauge the investment necessary to protect transport, production and housing infrastructure in the permafrost-thaw areas unless preemptive measures are taken as soon as possible.
Climate Problems and the Power Industry
The G8 heads of state and government adopted a long-term plan to tackle the problem at their meeting in Evian in 2003. This tool is aimed to solve the problem of global climate change through adaptation and reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions. The plan encourages research and development in the field of renewable energy sources based inter alia on natural resources, such as solar, wind, wave, tide and other types of energy.
However, while discussing global power generation issues, it is especially important to view them within the context of national capabilities.
As far as Russia's climatic resources are concerned, the feasibility of substantial progress in alternative energy sources is limited by nature when compared to that of a number of countries situated in more favorable climates. For instance, the United States, Japan, France and Italy have an edge in the solar energy potential, the U.K. in wind energy capabilities, etc.
First and foremost, the capabilities available are spread unfavorably throughout the country in terms of the use of resources. For example, the wind is highest on the coasts of the northern and eastern seas, where the population and industry are negligible and power transfer costs are enormous. Only the southern part of the country gets enough solar radiation to develop solar energy infrastructure.
On the other hand, it is obvious that there have been suggestions to slash greenhouse emissions further, although conclusions as to the degree of the man's impact on the environment have been poorly articulated. According to Rosgidromet, such suggestions should not underlie political decisions and can only serve a reason for in-depth research, a commitment that has been repeatedly stated by the G8 leaders.
Russia should be very circumspect regarding commitments to reduce its hydrocarbon fuel output. When speaking of Russia, it should be highlighted that the largest part of the county has a cold climate. Hence, heavy power consumption is necessary to bring heat to people and ensure comfortable living standards and conditions for normal economic activities.
In addition, extraction and processing of natural resources is the mainstay of the social and economic way of life in many regions, for example, coal mining in Kuzbass. Reducing primary production and introducing a replacement economy will call for huge spending that will negate the benefits of hydrocarbon consumption reduction several times over.
Climate experts expect the upcoming G8 summit meeting to discuss the global climate change in detail, and pool international efforts to work out common approach for adapting to it.
Alexander Bedritsky, head of the Federal Hydrometeorological and Environment Monitoring Service, president of the World Meteorological Organization
