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RIA Novosti

Features & Opinion

Bakiyev recognizes Russia's influence with visit to Moscow

16:03 01/09/2005

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov.) On September 4, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev will visit Moscow.

This will be his first official foreign trip, and therefore signifies Bishkek's recognition that Russia is the dominant external force in Kyrgyzstan.

However, in view of the current relations between the two countries and Russia's involvement in Kyrgyz economic and political matters, Bakiyev's visit will not be purely symbolic and limited to expressions of mutual friendship. The two countries have common plans and common problems.

The priority topic for discussion will probably be ways in which to increase Russia's involvement in the reconstruction and development of the Kyrgyz economy. Bishkek requires external assistance for a number of reasons, not least because its economic situation is complicated, if not catastrophic.

Moscow knows that the Bakiyev government needs to resolve some very tricky issues in order to prevent the escalation of social and political tensions. Moreover, Bishkek has to act fast. Its first task is to prevent further economic distortions. Then it must encourage business and capital to stay in the republic. And lastly, it must preclude another exodus of ethnic Russians from the republic, as this could cause Kyrgyzstan nasty economic and political problems.

Experts say that Kyrgyzstan's foreign debt is currently 70% of its GDP. The extremely low level of demand on the domestic market makes the problem particularly hard to address, as GDP growth requires proper demand. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan's internal sources of capital are too small for meaningful investment in the economy. Therefore, the republic needs external assistance. Practice shows that such assistance does not always come without strings attached. Whether it wants to or not, Bishkek has to search for potential investors among the main players in Central Asia - China, the United States and Russia.

So far, Bishkek has opted for Russia. This preference is based on consideration of all factors, including the republic's ethnic Russian population.

In particular, Kyrgyzstan wants Russia to help it finish construction of two systems for the Kambarata-1 and Kambarata-2 hydro cascades, and also an aluminum plant in the south of the republic. It also wants Russia to help it build a large cement mill in the south. Bishkek is very hopeful that the development of hydro energy and the construction of the aluminum plant will give a significant boost to the republic's coffers.

Russia is Kyrgyzstan's largest trade and economic partner, accounting for 26% of the republic's external trade. But Bishkek clearly wants more. Leading businessmen and economists from the republic say that Russia is not taking full advantage of the opportunities offered by bilateral economic ties.

In an effort to boost economic cooperation, an event called Days of Kyrgyzstan is being held on 8-10 September in Moscow, just after Bakiyev's visit to the capital. The program includes a Moscow-Kyrgyzstan investment forum and a session of the intergovernmental commission on trade, economic, research and technical cooperation. The parties are talking about holding another session of a similar commission in the near future, but this time at a higher, interstate level.

This is the backdrop against which Kyrgyzstan's foreign policy is being shaped. It certainly seems that the Bakiyev government has determined its priorities. By signing the recent declaration of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Bishkek lent its voice to the appeal to the U.S. that it set a deadline for the withdrawal of its military bases in Central Asia, one of which is near Bishkek.

Given the opportunities for Russia in Kyrgyzstan and the Central Asian republic's need for Russian assistance, it is clear that Bakiyev's visit to Moscow does not simply signify recognition of the leading position of Russia in Kyrgyzstan, but also expresses the hope that Moscow will maximize its standing in the republic.

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