MOSCOW. (Alexei Makarkin, Deputy General Director, Center of Political Technologies, for RIA Novosti). Ukraine's three main political forces, namely, the supporters of Viktor Yushchenko, Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych, are now courting voters in eastern Ukraine.
Yushchenko, for one, has nominated Dnepropetrovsk regional governor Yury Yekhanurov as prime minister, concluding an agreement with Yanukovych, also.
2004 presidential elections split Ukraine along geographic lines. The country's central and western regions voted for Yushchenko, with southern and eastern Ukraine supporting Yanukovych. The densely populated and industrialized eastern areas decisively influenced all previous election campaigns. However, eastern Ukraine lost the 2004 elections for the first time, failing to defeat the supporters of Yushchenko and Tymoshenko during the protracted stand-off on Kiev's famous Independence Square. But this does not necessarily mean that all major political forces have now given up eastern Ukraine for good. They will continue to woo the local electorate because it would otherwise be impossible to form a stable majority in the Supreme Rada (Parliament).
Supporters of Viktor Yanukovych can expect to be backed by part of south-eastern Ukraine's electorate. Latest events show that his Ukrainian Regions party is more interested in guarantees for its leaders' personal freedom and for sponsors' property. These are the main points of the Yushchenko-Yanukovych agreement that was concluded on the eve of the second, and successful, parliamentary vote concerning Yekhanurov's candidacy. The agreement's other provisions, such as fair parliamentary elections and opposition rights guarantees are of a declarative nature and have something to do with Yushchenko's previous promises. And it was impossible to renounce political reform guarantees because this would have wrecked the Ukrainian political situation. All voters and parties aspire for change.
Yekhanurov's appointment means that Ukraine has received a pragmatic Prime Minister who is well-versed in economic matters. Yekhanurov also maintains a good relationship with the President's inner circle, as well as the economic and political elite that had ruled Ukraine under President Leonid Kuchma. Its representatives may be appointed to the new Cabinet of Ministers, which can play the part of Yushchenko's future election coalition. Yekhanurov held important posts under Kuchma; for instance, he was Economics Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister. However, Yekhanurov remained loyal to Yushchenko's Our Ukraine faction in the last several years. He interacted with representatives of pro-Rukh nationalist political organizations.
Yekhanurov's Russian policy will be more loyal and predictable than that of Tymoshenko because he was not indicted by the Russian Prosecutor-General's Office.
Tymoshenko and her closest supporters, including Economics Minister Sergei Terekhin (who backed her in the conflict with Yushchenko) vehemently opposed Ukrainian-Russian cooperation within the framework of the Common Economic Space. But Yekhanurov said he liked the idea of such cooperation from the very beginning. Moreover, eastern Ukrainian businessmen support this project.
Still one should not exaggerate the consequences of Yekhanurov's appointment for Russian-Ukrainian partnership because Ukrainian politicians have always promised a lot. But their practical achievements are far more modest.
Yushchenko's elite expansion to the east of the country and Tymoshenko's courting the eastern Ukrainian electorate by circumventing the local power players coincide in time. Tymoshenko, for one, wore an orange ribbon and a blue ribbon on TV, as she apparently tried to reconcile revolutionary and anti-revolution traditions. It seems that Tymoshenko has small chances because she was one of the "orange revolution's" architects. But one should not forget that Tymoshenko launched her business and political career in Dnepropetrovsk, eastern Ukraine. Most importantly, she implemented some populist measures during her tenure of office. For instance, Tymoshenko paid overdue wage arrears to Donbass miners. And her current opposition status implies that she has nothing do with unpopular, albeit necessary, measures.
Therefore one can say that the eastern Ukraine is not some outcast region, home to political losers. Local elites and voters are becoming increasingly popular with those who talked arrogantly about "bandit Donetsk" not so long ago. Such politically incorrect statements are now history. Consequently, there is every reason to believe that the new Ukrainian Government, just as that to emerge next year, will represent regions more adequately than the first "post-revolutionary" Cabinet.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the RIA Novosti editorial board.
