Uzbekistan needs understanding, not isolation

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - At their meeting in Luxembourg European Union (EU) foreign ministers passed a resolution against Uzbekistan.

This did not come as a surprise but emerged as a logical result of the special attention paid by the EU and U.S. to this Central Asian republic since May, when its government suppressed massive riots in Andijan.

The resolution has imposed some sanctions on Uzbekistan (prohibition of arms sales to that republic and denial of European visas to several people from the Karimov entourage), but they are not expected to have a significant effect. Europe and the U.S. cannot isolate Uzbekistan, or any other country for that matter, if other partners are not going to do so. In fact, the sanctions were not intended as an effective measure, but were largely imposed for propaganda purposes and as a form of moral support for the U.S., which has been having difficulties in the region.

The U.S. and EU adopted such a tough stance on Uzbekistan after U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried gave up on his numerous attempts to persuade Uzbek President Islam Karimov to extend the deadline for the withdrawal of the U.S. air force base from Karshi-Khanabad.

Shortly after the Andijan tragedy, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice demanded in no uncertain terms that Uzbek President Islam Karimov allowed international investigation into the events.

"As to what consequences there might me, I think Uzbekistan does not want to endure further isolation from the international community," she said.

The problem is that the U.S. cannot find a good alternative to its base in Khanabad. Its other Central Asian air base, Gansi, is located at Manas international airport in Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan. The flying time from Manas to Kabul, Afghanistan, is twice as long and requires twice as much fuel. Besides, Manas airport is overloaded.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has passed a resolution urging the U.S. to consider the deadlines for withdrawing its military bases from Central Asia. Much to Washington's surprise and displeasure, Kyrgyzstan, where the U.S. has its last air force base, also signed the resolution.

The current developments were also influenced by the fact that the current trial in Tashkent of the Andijan rioters revealed U.S. Embassy's involvement in the uprising.

In the U.S. dispute with Uzbekistan, the EU sanctions are just a tip of the iceberg. The U.S. Congress is going to discuss a recent draft resolution on instigating criminal proceedings against Uzbek President Islam Karimov in the International Criminal Court. The U.S. House Committee on International Relations has urged President Georges Bush to use U.S. influence in the UN Security Council to punish Karimov for the events in Andijan.

The U.S. and EU are unanimous in accusing Islam Karimov of disproportionate use of force against the rioters. But adequate defense of national security is a sensitive issue for any country, and Uzbekistan is no exception. For this reason Russia is not the only country to adopt a different stance on this situation. "We view the events in Uzbekistan as a tragedy, but our estimate of their causes is poles apart from that of Western human rights organizations," said Russian Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov. Russia is not going to cut arms supplies to Uzbekistan, he added.

Leading expert of the Center for Current Politics Anatoly Belyayev said that it is necessary "to display extreme caution in applying European standards of democratization, especially when it comes to societies with a predominantly Muslim population."

"If democracy is established in Uzbekistan under the Western scenario, the effect is very likely to be the opposite: radical Islamization extending far beyond the boundaries of the republic," he said. There were no guarantees that the Andijan events would not have generated similar tragedies in adjacent republics, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, if Tashkent had not displayed enough resolve.

Moreover, Moscow and Tashkent have "many common interests in ensuring political and social stability in the region, and in promoting economic cooperation," said the expert. He believes that the West should pay more attention to the opinions of politicians and experts who are familiar with the regional problems firsthand and not just from newspaper articles.

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