MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov). --Will the Iran nuclear file be referred to the UN Security Council, as the recent resolution of the IAEA Board of Governors suggests?
Most likely, at its next session in November the Board will, for the umpteenth time, give Iran one more chance to reach compromise with the world community on its nuclear program. The IAEA and the three European countries -- Britain, France and Germany, known as EU3 -- or maybe more nations, will take part in the negotiations on behalf of the world community. At any rate, this will be the most sensible option for several reasons.
At a recent session, 22 out of 34 members of the IAEA Board of Governors voted to refer the Iran nuclear file for the consideration of the UN Security Council, as negotiations between Iran and EU3 were on the verge of breaking down. One voted against, with 11 abstaining. With some reservations, we can say that there were 22 Westerners against 12 pro-Iranians.
The meeting was immediately followed by the rotation of 10 non-permanent members of the Board. As a result, the "pro-Iranian" faction may become stronger at the next session. The five obvious Westerners were replaced with just three that are likely to vote for sending the Iran file to the UN Security Council: Greece, Norway, and Slovenia. As for the seven new members, Belarus, Cuba, and Syria are markedly pro-Iranian, while Egypt, Indonesia, Columbia, and Libya remain neutral. The alignment may become 17 vs. 17 if Libya, which sacrificed its nuclear program to Washington, does not vote "for".
The majority is not likely to back Iran. Still, in the opinion of Vladimir Yevseyev, an expert from the Moscow Carnegie Center, the new alignment will have an effect on the general atmosphere of the debates. In addition, much will depend on the position taken by Russia and China.
At the last Board meeting, Russia and China abstained from voting, although during the discussion they had been emphatically against reporting Iran to the UN Security Council. Yevseyev qualified the two countries' neutrality as a small concession to the EU and U.S., which have done a lot to reach a consensus with Beijing and Moscow on the Iranian problem.
One example is the IAEA resolution itself, which says that the Iran file will be submitted to the UN Security Council only if Iran goes for a full nuclear fuel cycle. This is an important reservation. Besides, although many Europeans insisted on reporting Iran to the UN immediately, the resolution still has not fixed a specific date. This is another obvious concession to Russia and China.
If Russia and China continue to insist that IAEA and Iran have not yet exhausted opportunities for cooperation, other Board members, who voted "for" at the previous meeting, are likely to change their position. At any rate, there are grounds to say that France can join Russia and China.
In the month before the next meeting of the Board, Iran, the IAEA, and the EU3 will keep looking for compromise and for a convenient wording of the resumption of the negotiating process. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said recently in Moscow that Iran has a chance to avoid Security Council sanctions if it cooperates with IAEA to resolve the outstanding issues.
ElBaradei said that the IAEA wanted to find a peaceful solution to the Iranian issue, and that it was only natural that everyone was talking about the need to resume the negotiations between Europe and Iran. He urged all sides to return to the negotiating table, and expressed his conviction in that they understand how important this step was. ElBaradei quoted Iranian leaders as saying that Iran was ready to cooperate with IAEA. Importantly, now that ElBaradei has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, his words carry more weight.
Tehran has already made a step forward by declaring that it leaves the door open for the return to the negotiating table. As usual, it has made a number of reservations.
Will the West accept them? Now the ball is in the EU3 court.
