ESTONIA
Events in Nalchik have generated a considerable response, with both Russian sources and the Kavkaz-tsentr web site of Chechen separatists quoted extensively. "It is just as well that yesterday's clash in the capital of Kabardino-Balkaria between Chechen rebels and Russian security forces did not repeat the Beslan hostage drama. On the one hand, human lives were spared, and on the other, seizure of innocent hostages would not have benefited Chechen independence fighters, in the sense of the world's understanding, sympathy and support for separatists." (Eesti Paevaleht, October 14.)
Some Estonian politicians have expressed outrage about the statement made by Prime Minister Andrus Ansip that Estonia would not demand compensation from Russia for the damage caused by the Soviet "occupation." The Fatherland Union has sent an inquiry to parliament concerning Ansip's statement. Union members want to know why Ansip decided to go back on his former decision and not to demand Russia's apologies for half a century of subjugation. The party also wonders why the premier has abandoned his intention of claiming compensation for deported persons and their descendents." (Delfi, October 13.)
LATVIA
The situation in Nalchik has led the national publications to assert that Moscow has lost control over the North Caucasus. "Reprisals alone (still continued by Moscow) will not put an end to the violence in the North Caucasus. Ruthless tactics adopted by local authorities and large numbers of young men reported missing are driving people into guerilla units. With unemployment levels in the region close to 70%, it is no wonder that membership of illegal armed formations becomes a way of earning a living." (Diena, October 14.)
The official position, in particular that of Vaira Vike-Freiberga, who has backed Russia's action in wiping out militants in Nalchik, has sparked off a discussion in the press seeking to find out what had prompted the warming of relations with Russia. "Two reasons explain this metamorphosis in our president's behavior. First, the Latvian president has always followed the American policy, which is tough on terrorism. It is noteworthy that a few hours before Vike Freiberga went on the air, the U.S. Department of State strongly condemned militant excesses in Nalchik ... Secondly, during her second term in office, the head of state began increasingly to sympathize with left-wing forces ... Now she is trying alone to establish a dialogue with Moscow." (Vesti Segodnya, October 15.)
LITHUANIA
Following the crash of the Russian Su-27 jet in Lithuania, national security has become the dominant subject discussed in Lithuanian media. "Until the Karaliaucius (Kaliningrad) region is demilitarized, there is no hope for the area's sustained economic development ... Laima Andrikene, a European MP, said after her visit to the Kaliningrad region: "It is almost impossible to find investors for a region swarming with troops and weapons. There is no chance of creating market conditions in such an area." (Atgimimas, October 18.)
Apart from the military threat, the Lithuanian press and politicians are concerned about the country's economic security, especially in energy. A decision by the Amsterdam court to limit, at Russia's request, the freedom to manage shares of Mazeikiai Nafta (MN) came as an unpleasant surprise. "Is [premier] Algirdas Brazauskas so naive that he hoped to be assured by the Dutch prime minister that the Netherlands government would overrule the decision of the Amsterdam court and revoke restrictions on the Holland-registered Yukos subsidiaries Jukos Finance and Jukos International to manage MN stock?" (Verslo Zinios, October 14.)
Many articles deal with the tragic events in Nalchik. "It took over 24 hours for Russian troops to repel the attack militants mounted in Nalchik. They have challenged President Putin, showing that his policy in the North Caucasus is a fiasco." (Lietuvos Zinios, October 15.)
UKRAINE
The fuel and energy complex is in the news again. The breakdown of Ukrainian-Turkmen energy talks has not surprised the media, but is interpreted unequivocally as an indication of failure of the upcoming Moscow-Kiev gas negotiations. "The sharp response of the Turkmen president in effect condemns Ukraine's attempts to avoid Russia's gas dictate. By concluding a long-term contract with Turkmenistan, Ukraine planned to boost its positions at talks with Russia's Gazprom, which had promised to set market gas prices for Kiev from January 1, 2006." (Korrespondent.net, October 13.) "Turkmenbashi deprived us of the chance to secure an alternative source of gas and allow Ukraine to feel more assured in its gas war against Russia." (Segodnya, October 14.)
Some publications, however, still hope for a compromise with Russia, but one involving blackmail. "Ukraine has a trump card until Russia builds bypassing routes: all Russian gas intended for Europe is shipped across our state." (Lvivska Gazeta, October 14.)
A statement by Anatoly Kinakh, secretary of the National Security Council, that Ukraine and Russia should synchronize their WTO entry moves, is widely discussed. Perplexed Foreign Ministry officials are quoted as saying the idea is not realistic. "Concerning the Kinakh statement the Ministry complained they could not comment on it, because they had not seen it. But they confirmed that in compliance with the presidential decree on the Ministry's coordinating role, only the president, the prime minister and the foreign minister were authorized to comment on foreign relations." (ProUA, October 12.)
The media recall that according to the Russian press Prime Minister Yury Yekhanurov had already voiced the argument about coordinated WTO positions of Russia and Ukraine. The intention behind the statement is to deliberately "lull" Russia into a false sense of security. "In order to slow down the Kremlin's WTO entry, Yekhanurov is trying to diplomatically assure his Russian colleagues of friendly intentions." (Galitskiye Kontrakty, October 13.)
MOLDOVA
The local media consider the most important event of the week to be the visit of the Russian delegation headed by Deputy Secretary of Russia's Security Council Yury Zubakov. "There is every indication that President Vladimir Voronin was presented with a new plan (the so-called Kozak-2 Memorandum) proposing a solution to the Transdnestr problem. This document has been discussed by the Tiraspol press for a long time and should become an alternative to Viktor Yushchenko's initiatives. Zubakov came to Chisinau in order to persuade, or, perhaps, blackmail Voronin, to accept the Russian plan as the alternative or even essential ingredient to settle the Transdnestr crisis." (Flux, October 13.) The Transdnestr press has shown a favorable response to the Russian delegation's visit. "Joint projects in our economic relations with Moscow were charted in Tiraspol. Moscow has demonstrated its willingness to promote the self-proclaimed Transdnestr Republic's international contacts and its integration into the modern system of international relations." (Olviapress, October 17.)
ARMENIA
The local press offers extensive coverage of the "Foreign Policy Processes" seminar, which was organized by the Soglasiye (Concord) Center of Legal and Political Studies. Armenia's foreign policy has been subjected to harsh criticism. "Armenian society has lost its national values and foreign policy priorities since 1998, when the Administration of President Robert Kocharyan took over. Consequently, Armenia still cannot choose between a pro-Russian and a pro-American orientation, as well as between relations with Europe and the Arab world." (Aikakan Zhamanak, October 14.)
The Armenian press devoted considerable attention to the visit of Krasnodar governor Alexander Tkachev. "Anti-Armenian sentiments in the Krasnodar Territory are still an extremely serious problem. There are 10 million Armenians in the world, and about 2.5 million of them live in Russia. There may be more Armenians in Russia than in Armenia itself. Over 500,000 Armenians live in the Krasnodar Territory, and some local residents do not like this. The problem of xenophobia and nationalism, which is widespread all over Russia, has become particularly acute in Kuban." (Novoye Vremya, October 13.)
GEORGIA
The Georgian Parliament has passed a resolution concerning the activities of Russian peacekeeping forces in conflict zones. Most publications discuss this political event. "The resolution is not an end in itself, nor is it intended as an ultimatum. The Parliament has passed this resolution in order to convince Russia that Georgia's patience has run out, and that we cannot and do not intend to tolerate this time bomb any longer." (Akhali Versia, October 12.) "Georgian Parliament has made the right decision. However, this document does not stipulate the mechanism for withdrawing CIS forces,and this is its main drawback. CIS peacekeeping forces abide by a UN mandate, therefore, the issue should be raised in the UN." (Akhali Taoba, October 18.)
The Georgian media predict that the West is more likely to support Russia than Georgia on the issue of withdrawing Russian peacekeepers. Practical considerations will prevail. "The United States and Europe have already overcome revolutionary euphoria,and have no intention of taking part in romantic battles. They have their own interests and problems. Global politics is controlled by oil and gas, which Georgia lacks, while Moscow has everything. Not only does the West aspire for improved relations with Russia, but it also advises Tbilisi to strive for the Kremlin's favor." (Alia, October 13.)
AZERBAIJAN
The media cites Western commentators' deliberations about the possibility of a full-scale war in the North Caucasus. "Russia has never been able to maintain peace on the territory between the Black and the Caspian seas. This summer, some analysts started talking about an impending third Caucasian war. Yesterday's attack on Nalchik may be regarded as the beginning of that war." (Ekho, October 15.) "Right now, the Kremlin faces large-scale insurgency in the seven North Caucasian republics. This will mean that Russia has lost control over its southern border, and that one of the most intensive conflicts has moved closer toward the EU. Moreover, Russia has jeopardized Western plans to develop oil and gas deposits in the Caspian region. (Ekho, October 15.)
The republic is concerned about energy cooperation between the Russian Federation and the South Caucasus. Russia's RAO UES (Unified Energy Systems) power monopoly plans to synchronize Russian and Iranian power grids via Georgia and Armenia. Consequently, Azeri politicians have recognized the need to revise the agreement between Azerbaijan and RAO UES on the parallel operation of Russian and Iranian power grids via Azerbaijan. "The RAO UES initiative goes against Azerbaijan's principles. There can be no talk of telecommunications and energy cooperation, until the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is resolved." (Ekho, October 15.)
KAZAKHSTAN
The Central Asian tour by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is seen there as a response of the White House to the increased role of Russia and China in the region. "Rice is to assess to what extent America has lost influence in the region... Analysts think that Washington may be nurturing integration projects, such as the creation of a so-called union state, United States - United Asia, with two capitals, one in Washington and the other in the center of the future enclave, Astana." (Liter.kz, October 13.)
Local media write about LUKoil's final agreement on the acquisition of Nelson Resources Limited. "LUKoil is changing the rules of the game in the process. Russians think that they should have been consulted before the sale of Petro Kazakhstan to China, but are trying to buy Nelson Resources without asking the opinion of the (Kazakh) government." (Kompromat.kz, October 17.)
KYRGYZSTAN
The visit of Condoleezza Rice was the highlight of the week. The press doubts that Moscow and Washington can settle all of their differences in the region. "Americans feel that they are lagging behind Russia in this region, as Russia has the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and, following the talks in St. Petersburg, the Eurasian Economic Community reinforced with Central Asian states. To counterbalance this, Washington may try to create an alternative regional organization, excluding Russia and China." (Kazeta.KG, October 12.)
The local media note that Bishkek stands to earn "political dividends" in this case. "This is largely due to the efforts of President Bakiyev, who has publicly announced Kyrgyzstan's unwillingness to develop friendly relations with the U.S. to the detriment of other (including adjacent) countries. He seems to be quickly acquiring one of the strengths of his predecessor - the ability to cleverly maneuver between the interests of world powers." (Obshchestvenny reiting, October 13.)
UZBEKISTAN
The Central Asian tour by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was breaking news all week. "The choice of places she would visit - Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan - and those she would not - Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan - shows that the United States plans to divide the region into rogue states and states which might be encouraged to launch democratic reforms and thus be upgraded to its (American) democratic standards." (Vesti.uz, October 12.)
In response to the deportation of Uzbek national Marsel Isayev, who had asked for political asylum in Russia, from Kazan after he refused to give false testimony over the Andijan events, experts note the coordination in the actions of Tashkent and Moscow, which is allegedly concerned about the proliferation of the 'color virus' in post-Soviet territories and the decline of Russian influence in the region. "The deportation is illegal and points to the Kremlin's fear of 'orange revolutions' in Central Asia. Isayev fell victim to the situation; his life was sacrificed to the so-called geopolitical interests of Russia in Uzbekistan." (Fergana.ru, October 13.)
TAJIKISTAN
An interview with Sergey Annenkov, Deputy General Director of Russian Aluminum (in charge of joint ventures), has caused major repercussions. "RUSAL promised to create 10,000 jobs under an agreement with the government of Tajikistan, and we assume that most of them will be connected with the completion of the Rogun Hydro. In addition, small and medium-sized businesses usually flourish around major projects, and we are witnessing this: there was no cellular communication in Rogun a year ago, but today there is access not only to Dushanbe but also anywhere in the world." (Aziya-Plyus, October 13.)
The media point out the danger of Russia-U.S. confrontation in Central Asia. "Washington and Moscow have become rivals in the region. To a certain extent, this is a healthy competition, but it must not be allowed to grow into a tug-of-war that would damage the common cause of America and Russia in the region." (Aziya-Plyus, October 15.)