Moscow, November 15 (RIA Novosti)
KOMMERSANT
Russian president starts solving 2008 problem
Yesterdays cabinet reshuffle was the most serious since Mikhail Kasyanov was fired in February 2004. In fact, the change entailed more than just a number of new appointments: the entire government structure was altered. It appears to have marked the start of the search for Putin's successor.
President Putin's third reshuffle is designed to outline the structure of supreme government bodies as it will continue to exist until 2008. And it will pave the president's way for the crucial moment in his political career.
Undoubtedly, the transfer of the Kremlin administration head to the post of the first deputy prime minister will serve to strengthen the government and bring back its political functions. This will be especially true if Dmitry Medvedev, former head of the Kremlin administration and the new first deputy prime minister, retains his position as Gazprom board chairman.
In the past year, the government's work has been paralyzed because key decisions in energy have been made directly by the Kremlin. Given the structure of the Russian economy, the government was helpless.
The obvious move toward a political government, and one discussed a great deal recently, seems logical even in the context of increasingly voiced opinions about transition to a party government. The political government to be led by the United Russia suggests a considerable redistribution of the executive's powers that would protect and control a potential successor to President Putin.
VEDOMOSTI
New deputy prime ministers to streamline budgetary outlays
The Russian business community does not expect major changes in the country's economic policy following yesterday's government reshuffle, and economists do not think this will lead to radical improvements either.
Businessmen are convinced that the new appointments of Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov were prompted primarily by political considerations rather than a desire to strengthen the economic block of the cabinet.
"The new appointments have nothing to do with the economy," said Daniil Khachaturov, general director of the Rosgosstrakh state insurance company. "In Russia there are three people who handle every aspect of the economy - Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref. They have kept their posts and hence the economic policy will not change."
It is a great advantage to be responsible only for federal projects, said Alexander Morozov, head economist of the Russian subsidiary of the HSBC bank. But these projects will not have a lasting effect without reforms and "the authorities do not want to carry them out simultaneously with financing the industry." The economist predicts that next year the government will spend 200 billion rubles ($6.94 billion) over and above plan and "the appointment of Medvedev can influence the distribution of this money but not the amount of spending."
These changes will not increase the probability of using the Stabilization Fund resources either, which is high anyway because of the upcoming 2007 and 2008 elections, said Yevsey Gurvich, head of the Expert Economic Group.
The new status of Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov will allow him to assume full control of the defense industry in the government because there is no single decision-making center now, said Vladimir Zhelonkin, a board member of the United Industrial Corporation, which controls the Baltiisky Zavod plant and the Severnaya Verf Northern Shipyard.
Yuri Yeliseyev, general director of the Salyut works that produces fighter engines, said "it would certainly be a good thing if somebody took charge of coordinating the military-technical policy in the cabinet."
VREMYA NOVOSTEI
Putin will not run for third term - expert
Politicians and political scientists comment on the latest reshuffle inside the Russian Government and the Presidential Administration.
Vladimir Ryzhkov, independent State Duma deputy, one of the Republican Party's leaders:
It is fairly obvious that Vladimir Putin will not run for the third term. The appointment of Dmitry Medvedev as first deputy prime minister shows that the Kremlin is going to back him. For balance, Sergei Ivanov was made deputy prime minister while keeping his job as defense minister. This does not seriously affect the situation for other political forces.
Ivan Melnikov, first deputy chairman of the Russian Communist Party's central committee, member of the State Duma:
I do not think that Putin has chosen his successors, because that would be premature and too straightforward. Given present-day policies, such a successor could tarnish his reputation more than once. In my opinion, the president is trying to mitigate contradictions between different Kremlin and cabinet officials.
Alexander Konovalov, president of the Strategic Assessments Institute:
This is Byzantine-style politics. We must read between the lines, learn a multitude of details and analyze the entire situation. It is possible that the Kremlin has started assessing prospective successors. So, will Sergei Ivanov outdo Dmitry Medvedev? Given Russia's specifics, I think that both men can go under before their time.
Stanislav Belkovsky, director of the National Strategy Institute:
This decision shows that the president is ready to fire Mikhail Fradkov soon and to replace him with Dmitry Medvedev. It took almost a year to chart this personnel reshuffle. But the president's actions often do not match his words. He always seems to be in the middle of a special operation. Moreover, he remains convinced that utterly unexpected decisions (those that have not been leaked to the media) are a key to success.
It is still too early to talk about Putin's successor. Sergei Ivanov is unlikely to become president. In short, Russia's law-enforcement agencies have to be reshuffled; and someone should coordinate this process.
MOSKOVSKY KOMSOMOLETS
Russian-Uzbek alliance puts Moscow at risk
The Kremlin has become involved in a dangerous political game. Monday's talks in the Kremlin between President Vladimir Putin and his visiting Uzbek counterpart, Islam Karimov, culminated in an alliance agreement. This document can help Moscow to score some points in its unofficial race with Washington for influence over post-Soviet space. Or it may involve the Kremlin in the bloody Asian drama.
Karimov, a former member of the Soviet Communist Party's Politburo, began to implement an ostentatiously independent policy after Uzbekistan seceded from the U.S.S.R. The Uzbek leader took advantage of the conflict of interests between Moscow, Washington and Beijing, as he strove to turn his country into a regional superpower. Karimov maintained more close-knit political relations with Washington, rather than Moscow, only a few years ago. It is hardly surprising that one of America's largest Central Asian air force bases was located in Uzbekistan until now. However, the West decided that Karimov was a marked man, after he crushed an uprising in Andijan this May.
The Uzbek leader had no choice but to embrace Moscow in his fight for political survival. Still it would be naive to rejoice over this "major Russian diplomatic triumph." The Republic of Uzbekistan is seething with discontent. The local economy has virtually disintegrated, and bureaucrats rule supreme. Consequently, Islamic extremists have become more popular than before. And the authorities have launched a new wave of repressions.
Extremely tough measures have enabled Karimov to restore a semblance of stability. Experts believe, however, that this fragile balance will not last long, and Islamist attacks or popular uprisings can happen any moment.
It would be an exaggeration to accuse the Kremlin of adventurism because there is still no acceptable alternative to President Karimov. If he steps down, Islamic fundamentalists will take over. Therefore, subtle political games are the only way to get out of the Uzbek maze. But it is unclear whether Russian leaders can accomplish this objective.
GAZETA
Russia ready to fight piracy to gain access to WTO
German Gref, the Russian Minister of Economic Development and Trade, has found the center of counterfeit production in Russia. He said law-enforcement officers had confiscated 6 million pirate CDs at five restricted-access enterprises of the defense industry.
Why did a civilian minister make a statement that should have been made by a security-related official? As a rule, it is the Prosecutor General's office and the economic security department of the Interior Ministry that threaten the producers of pirated goods with persecution. There can be only one explanation for Gref's statement: he is not fully convinced that the people responsible for the operation will be called to account.
Sources in the law-enforcement agencies say the General Prosecutor's Office keeps silence because it has not yet decided to institute criminal proceedings against the counterfeiters, although the special operations forces confiscated hundreds of production matrixes in addition to millions of pirated CDs.
Likewise, it has not been decided yet who should be held responsible: only the producers of pirated goods or their bosses as well, the heads of these enterprises. It was no coincidence that Minister Gref and the prosecutors refused to name the enterprises or say what military use products they manufacture, and how the pirates could develop their business at a restricted-access plant.
President Vladimir Putin wants to crown his second term with Russia's access to the World Trade Organization. But the appalling standards of protecting intellectual property can become an insurmountable obstacle to this goal. The United States has taken an especially tough stand on the issue. When Gref was negotiating in Washington in early October, he was told that Russia should not expect to join the WTO without holding demonstration trials of counterfeiters and confiscating production matrixes.
Putin has apparently given the go-ahead to the prosecutors and police, who would not have dared to conduct their investigations at restricted-access enterprises otherwise. But will he allow them to arrest defense industry generals?
IZVESTIA
Lithuania and Russian oil companies vie for Yukos legacy
The struggle for the Yukos-owned Mazeikiu Nafta (MN) oil concern among international companies has become a matter of national importance for Lithuania. Russian oil firms believe that Lithuanian politicians will do everything in their power to keep Russian companies out. But Yukos, the owner of the concern, will make the final choice, and it says that it is only interested in finances, not politics.
At present, 53.7% of Yukos stock in MN is frozen on request of Rosneft and other creditors. And if the Amsterdam court rules in their favor on November 24, months of efforts to choose a Yukos successor will have been in vain. The tender scheme is extremely complex and carries greater risks for Lithuania than just dependence on Russian oil. Under the terms of an investment contract between the two shareholders of the concern - Lithuania and Yukos - Yukos will choose the future owner. Then the authorities will have either to agree to it or buy out the stock themselves to resell it later to whomever they want.
A few weeks ago Lithuanian Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas said he was favoring half-British TNK-BP. Lithuania had ignored Russian oil and partnered up with Kazakhstan's Kazmunaigaz - the Kazakhs have already contracted to pump up to 12 million tons of crude to Lithuania and offered to invest up to $400 million in Mazeikiu modernization.
Yukos is demonstrably keeping a distance from politics. "The determining condition for winning the tender will be the financial aspect of the bid. There will be no politics," says a representative of the embattled company.
But the Baltics will not do without Russian resources. Lithuania's neighbor, Latvia, is casting about for suppliers of Russian gasoline, because, in the view of the Latvian anti-monopoly authorities, MN is taking advantage of its dominating position by driving fuel prices up. In order to ease the grip of the monopoly, Latvia agrees to import gasoline from Russia and Belarus, even though it does not conform to European standards.
