ESTONIA
The main event of the week was a statement made by Alexander Ryazanov, deputy chairman of the Gazprom board, at the Russia Gas-2005 conference on a 50% increase in the price of Russian gas sold to the Baltic countries starting next year (to $120-125 per 1,000 cu m). The media present both panicky statements of the economics ministry's officials and specialists' commentaries reassuring the public at large. "Gazprom's statement is a surprise which can raise house heating tariffs by 20% next year. About half of Estonia's thermal power is provided by gas." (Aripaev, November 30.) "The media is raising a fuss about an issue which is not new to us. Over the past few years, Gazprom's top managers have repeatedly warned the Baltic countries about a steep rise in natural gas prices. ...The increase will be at a planned level." (SL Ohtuleht, November 30).
On the whole, however, the tendency in the press was not to explain gas price rises by political reasons alone. "In the past years, the price of crude has been continuously growing on the world market, which, in turn, explains the gas price rises. The Russian gas monopoly has no reason whatsoever to export gas at a lower price than the market is ready to pay. Estonia should be grateful at least that the new gas price will initially be lower than that established in most West-European countries." (Pohjarannik, December 1).
LATVIA
The Latvian press focuses on a meeting of East-European countries' leaders, which adopted the decision to set up a Community of Democratic Choice. The Latvian mass media openly stress the anti-Russian orientation of this association. Meanwhile, the local media in Russian highlight the problem of debt repayment to Russia. "For the first time after the end of the Cold War, a political alliance directed against the founder of the United Nations Organization and a permanent member of the UN Security Council is being formed in Europe. It is worth noting that Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia - Russia's main debtors - play a leading role in the 'anti-Russian axis.' They seem to demonstrate no desire to repay their debts in a civilized manner, and have therefore resorted to the tactics of blackmail and threats in their relations with Moscow." (Chas, December 2).
The forthcoming gas price hikes remain a major issue in Russian-Latvian economic relations. "Gazprom will sell gas at world prices ($150-160 against the current price of $80) to Moldova, the poorest country in Europe... The republic's president Vladimir Voronin came to power four years ago under the motto of [Moldova's] integration with Russia. However, as soon as he took office, he adopted the opposite course oriented towards the West. Gazprom has not forgiven Viktor Yushchenko for the "orange revolution," and therefore Ukraine will also pay more for gas next year ($150-160). All this looks very much like exemplary punishment devised to 'prevent others from even contemplating similar actions.' This gives Latvia something to think about, as our relations with the Kremlin are tense enough already." (Biznes&Baltia, November 30).
LITHUANIA
Most of the economic news is again concerned with negotiations to sell Mazeikiai Nafta stock. It is noted that the Lithuanian government and Yukos are pursuing different aims. While the concern needs money to pay off its debts, Lithuania wants to have uninterrupted oil supplies for the refinery and "a politically loyal" MN owner. "The government driven by Yukos into a corner is still nourishing the hope of buying out shares from the embattled company by resorting to its right of priority ... If Yukos sells the stock to the highest bidder, KazMunaiGaz, Lithuania can say goodbye to 1 billion litas it planned to set aside for ruble deposits compensation. That is the amount the Lithuanian government dreamed of earning by selling its 20% stake in Mazeikiai Nafta." (Lietuvos Rytas, December 3.)
An imminent 50% hike in gas prices, announced by Gazprom, has provoked a broad response, but some media reacted to it with understanding. "Clearly, Russia is using its energy enterprises and raw materials supplies to exert pressure and throw its weight about. On the other hand, Russia's desire to make more money out of an expensive energy source is also reasonable. So some of our politicians and parties, which have long since been earnestly stressing Russia's unfriendliness, can at last claim credit for one more victory in the struggle for freedom: after their long and stubborn campaign the Russians discarded their friendly feelings towards Lithuania and equated it with free European countries that get no benefits from Moscow. The enterprises in this country should blame themselves for failing to prepare for this 'victory.'" (Respublika, December 5.)
UKRAINE
The subject of fuel and power continues to dominate newspaper columns. The press has no doubt that the dragged-out "gas" conflict is politically motivated. Gazprom's categorical stance reflects the Kremlin's reaction to the "Orange revolution" and Kiev's pro-western line. "Russia is still set on revenge and has chosen the most vulnerable economic sector - the gas branch ... Gazprom's obvious hardening towards Ukraine has been agreed with the Kremlin ... Russia has not forgiven Yushchenko's coming to power. Russian gas moguls' tactics are called upon to 'bring Ukraine down a peg or two.'" (Glavred, December 1.)
The European Union's decision to grant Ukraine the status of a market economy will, according to the media, enable Kiev to reinforce its positions as a regional leader, and help reduce its dependence on Moscow. "Following yesterday's victory in the fight for market status and numerous compliments from European figures, Ukraine has gained more confidence to defend its interests in its relations with Russia." (RUpor, December 2.) "The West has recognized Kiev's role as a democratic leader in the post-Soviet space ... The political decision to give Ukraine a market economy status was another reward presented by the West on the anniversary of the 'Orange revolution'. Now Ukraine has an edge over Russia as a democratic leader in the CIS." (Podrobnosti, December 2.)
MOLDOVA
Gazprom's intention to raise gas tariffs for Moldova to $150-160 was the most widely discussed news over the week. "A gas attack against Chisinau aims to protect Transdnestr and prevent its disappearance so humiliating for Putin. Eventually Russia will be forced to give up the separatist region, but it is playing for time until it becomes possible to pull out after creating the impression of staying on." (Flux, December 2.)
The press highlights the opinion of Moldova's Minister of Economy and Trade Valeriu Lazar that the higher price of gas will not be disastrous for the republic's economy. "There will be no impact, because direct industrial users of this gas account for just 1.7% of the country's GDP." (Vremya, November 30).
The press criticizes an attempt by Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin to establish relations with Moscow through unofficial channels. "The Moldovan president's private visit puts him at a disadvantage and he has to justify himself. No head of state who respects himself and has a basic instinct for self-preservation strolls around in an unfriendly country. He is lucky to have no value for Moscow which Rudolf Hess had for London during World War II." (Flux, November 30.)
ARMENIA
The upcoming rise in Russian gas prices has been a widely debated issue in the media for several weeks now. "Today when 'color revolutions' occur in CIS territory one after another, and these countries turn towards the West, there is no reason why Russia should not raise the gas price for one of them. It is another matter if CIS countries toe Russia's line, or orient themselves more to the West as a result" (Azg, December 1). "State-run Gazprom, and by inference Russia, are guided exclusively by market logic and draw no distinctions between its 'strategic partner' Armenia, and Georgia or the Baltics, with whom the Russian Federation is almost on hostile terms." (Aravot, December 1.)
Experts indicate that Moscow may decide to render some form of assistance to Armenia on the gas issue, but that is bound to lead to Yerevan's further dependence on Russia. "The possibility that Russia may subject Armenia to a milder gas attack than other CIS members should not be ruled out. It is rumored that Russia will compensate Armenia for the higher gas price by giving it financial aid, which will then work its way back to Russia ... But a compromise cannot be one-sided. That is to say Armenia, too, will have to cede some ground. For example, Moscow is not overly pleased about Armenia deepening relations with the United States and European Atlantic structures" (Azg, December 1).
GEORGIA
The media have been energetically discussing the situation around the Russian-Georgian framework agreement. The agreement is ready, though a key problem remains: Moscow demands a provision that Georgia would not station a third country's bases on its territory. "Georgia borders on Russia's southern regions and a bridgehead may be established on its territory to attack Russia from the south. Although Georgia will have neither the strength nor the wish to do so, no one knows what could happen in the next 15-20 years. Moscow is panicking that the North-Atlantic Alliance would encircle Russia with military bases and threaten its sovereignty. Moscow has every reason for concern as Poland has agreed to provide its territory for U.S. countermissiles designed to destroy Russian strategic ballistic missiles. One day a large U.S. military base will open in Romania and Bulgaria is ready to accept Western military officers...Moscow rightly believes that with Georgia seeking access to the North-Atlantic Alliance, it is certain to allow NATO to deploy its military bases on Georgian soil." (Kviris Palitra, December 5.)
AZERBAIJAN
The press has criticized the Kremlin for its careless interference in the internal affairs of an independent state. "The problem with Moscow's behavior in Azerbaijan is that it has become pushy recently while Baku's foreign policy is becoming increasingly pro-Russian... Today many Russian media openly state that the Kremlin "had written" the scenario of the Azerbaijani parliamentary elections... Someone seems to be following the principle of "no opposition, no problem," thereby preservation of power becomes irrelevant. This may explain the decision made to follow the scenario proposed by Russian special services." (Zerkalo, November 30.)
Gazprom's announcement of a price hike in natural gas exports has had a vast and unfavorable effect on Moscow.
"The gas war" Russia is waging against its "defiant neighbors," mostly Ukraine and Georgia, is transforming into a serious political conflict on the post-Soviet space and directly concerns Azerbaijan... Soon after the Russian authorities announced their intention to sell gas to insufficiently loyal countries at "world prices," Baku made it clear that as soon as it pus the Shakh-Deniz gas condensate deposit into operation it would not import Russian gas and start exporting the "blue fuel" instead. (Echo, December 1.)
KAZAKHSTAN
The opposition media criticize the presidential election campaign and accuse the president of authoritarian rule. Journalists write that Nursultan Nazarbayev has exaggerated Kazakhstan's economic success and contradicted his own statements that a leader should not remain in his post for decades.
"Meetings of presidential candidate Zharmakhan Tuyakbai and his official representatives with voters were restricted, [opposition] newspapers, programs and information printed materials that explained to people its policies were confiscated without sanction or explanation, active members were beaten or arrested... This is enough to bewilder anyone and make not only opposition, but the entire world reconsider whether the president used democratic means to get elected or not." (Navigator II, December 6.)
A number of articles cover the Kazakh-Russian-Chinese oil forum held in Beijing. Apart from oil business development in Kazakhstan, they focus on the project of pipeline construction from Kazakhstan to China, pointing to its dependence on Gazprom. "The expansion of Kazakh gas to European markets depends on the Russian gas monopolist, which benefits more from selling its own gas than from transporting Kazakh gas across its territory." (Kazainform, December 2.)
KYRGYZSTAN
Some media note with regret that Russian companies have limited interest in Kyrgyz business. "Russian businesses were in no hurry to expand to Kyrgyzstan, leaving it to the Chinese, Turks, Americans and Japanese. Russian investment has appeared in the country only in the last five years, but mainly in the manufacturing and textile industries and in machine-building." (MSN, December 1.)
The press suggests that the main goal of the Collective Security Treaty Organization is to boost Russia's geopolitical role in former Soviet republics. "Moscow is trying to turn the CSTO into a kind of Warsaw Pact, to build peacekeeping forces within it in order to control the situation in these countries... The CSTO serves only one goal - it appeases the imperial ambitions of Russian leaders. The Kremlin is guided by last century's geopolitical principles, which say that the success of a state is defined by the territory it can control, as well as by the number of military unions made with foreign countries." (Obshchestvenny Reiting, December 2.)
UZBEKISTAN
The press reports that Rusal's head Oleg Deripaska has promised to address environmental problems while modernizing the Tajik aluminum plant situated near the Uzbek border. "It is widely known that harmful substances emitted by the plant have long been a cause of concern for the health and environmental control authorities, as well as for the public. It is no secret that the emissions harm people in Uzbekistan's Surkhandarya region. Mr. Deripaska, who came to this country to study the situation, visited the region as well. At his meeting with the president, he said that making production environmentally safe was Rusal's main goal and that it had allocated $173.4 million for environmental protection. (UzA, Uzbekistan, December 2.)
TAJIKISTAN
Mass media have published the speech of U.S. Ambassador in Tajikistan Richard Hoagland delivered to the leaders of the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan, representatives of the government's committee for youth affairs and students. He urged Tajiks to overcome their excessive dependence on Russia. "In the contemporary world, countries should decide first and foremost what is in their own national interests," he said. "What will make them truly stable and prosperous? What will give their populations hope for the future? And I have to say it's not holding Big Brother's hand every time you want to cross the street." (Azia-Plus, December 1.)
