The CIS and Baltic press on Russia

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ESTONIA

The North European gas pipeline is still on top of the news as the media calls upon a concerted action between the countries the pipeline bypasses to exert pressure on the international community to prevent the project from getting on stream.

"Small Baltic countries have been kicked out of the political playground. The international law is of little help now, so maybe the time has come to harness the environment again, like we did in the phosphate war in the 1990s [the successful campaign of Estonian environmentalists against a phosphates production site in Estonia]... Maybe there is a prospect for a Tallinn-Helsinki sea tunnel... The two Finno-Ugric nations live 80 km from one another, while the fresh-welded pipe big nations are making still has 800 km to go to the Baltic. We need to act like Putin and Schroeder did - without asking anyone's consent." (Parnu Postimees, December 22.)

LATVIA

Gazprom, Russia's natural gas monopoly, is seen as an arm in Kremlin's anti-U.S. game on the post-Soviet territory.

"With Gazprom under their belt, the leaders of our Eastern neighbor have taken off the mufflers that had impeded their punches on America's long-insensitive body...

"Washington's first bruise in the fight with Moscow was Gazprom's agreement with Kazakh state-owned transit company KazMunaiGaz... That done, any country buying natural gas in Central Asia will have to pass Russia's face control first, and all commercial agreements will be dictated from Moscow. Gazprom is going to be equally unceremonious with Ukraine, at a time when Washington, according to U.S. officials, has second thoughts about its foreign policy." Business & Baltija, December 22.)

Latvian media suggests that if Putin comes to the Riga NATO summit in late November 2006, this will be a signal that he supports Vaira Vike-Freiberga's candidacy as NATO Secretary General.

"To invite Putin to Riga would be a logical move - after all, Russia is a NATO and 'new' EU members' neighbor. He was expected at the latest Istanbul NATO summit but did not come. In any case, while Vladimir Putin's absence would be another blow to Russian-Latvian relations, his arrival would be seen as a gesture toward Vaira Vike-Freyberga, a green light for her to become NATO Secretary General." (Vesti Segodnya, December 22.)

LITHUANIA

Lithuanian media sees Russia's natural gas policy as a "new imperial weapon" that Russia could turn against "short-sighted" Europe in the long term.

"Is there a need in Europe to give Vladimir Putin this new imperial weapon? Worse, is Russia likely to turn this weapon against gas-hungry Europe some day? Getting a former German chancellor to run a company that might give the Russian president the ability to manipulate the EU economy is a result of a dangerous deal with Putin. Should Putin decide to put a price tag to our values or to our capability to criticize Russia, for instance, over war-torn Chechnya - the Europeans look more likely to shut up than run the risks of high energy prices, or even an energy blockade, like what Ukraine is facing now." (Veidas, December 27.)

There are some critical articles on Lithuania-unfriendly investment climate in the Kaliningrad region.

"Complex bureaucratic processes are in place. They take time businesspeople just do not have. Moreover, this is a guarantee of high level of corruption... Of about 600 companies partly owned by Lithuanians and registered in the Kaliningrad region, fewer than 30 operate at full speed." (Vakaru ekspresas, December 27.)

UKRAINE

Many publications warn against what they describe as unpromising and unjustified Kiev's argument with Moscow over Russia's Black Sea Fleet stationed in Sevastopol.

"On the surface, Moscow loses a great deal. In fact, the Black Sea Fleet is a money-hungry burden." (Obozrevatel[e1], , December 21.)

"The dispute around the Black Sea Fleet is a direct threat to the nation's territorial integrity and independence... The issue of the status of Sevastopol, including state jurisdiction over the city, will again be put to the fore. Russia could even revert to the Crimea issue... It is easy to predict the result of a Crimean referendum." (Oligarh.net, December 21.)

Many media reports suggest blackmail in the bilateral natural gas dispute will only raise Russia's demands, let alone bring Ukraine to victory.

"A hope that a dispute around the Sevastopol base will get Russia to compromise on gas prices is light-minded. Russia has a great supply of reserves and range of pressure engines, of which the gas price is the simplest and already operational. What Moscow needs to do is not listen [to us] but utter nonchalantly: $220, $230, $240..." (From-ua, December 26.)

Meanwhile, some publications see the gas scandal as a blessing for both sides. While Russia is interested in destabilizing Ukrainian energy-consuming and export-dependent economy, hoping that poorly powered Ukrainian factories will be up for grabs at bargain prices and will free up some more gas that could be sold to Europe, Kiev's firm stance could bring about a fully independent modernized economy and suppress the popularity of pro-Russian parties in the Ukrainian East.

"Russia's gain is clear, as a less consuming Ukraine will free up some more gas for Europe. Gazprom is rightfully suspicious about Ukraine's gas transit credentials and is of course trying to run the Ukrainian pipeline network itself...

"Ukraine's political dependence on Russia will go down, and so will the overall energy dependence. Sooner or later, the economy will adapt to new gas prices. Demonstrating Russia's pressure for the pipelines and [leader of the pro-Russian political forces Viktor] Yanukovich's [electoral] victory, the authorities have a chance to unite the people, ... which will result in a new political pattern unfavorable to the 'blue side' [during the Orange Revolution a year ago, Viktor Yanukovich's supporters chose blue as opposed to Viktor Yushchenko's orange]." (Obozrevatel, December 21.)

MOLDOVA

The pro-Romanian press ironically describes the new gas prices and the new Russian plan to federalize Moldova as "Christmas presents" from Russia. Journalists believe that Moscow is exerting economic pressure in order to split Moldovan political forces, "to tilt the political balance and bring pro-Kremlin groups into power." "Guided by its own geopolitical interests, Moscow is hitting directly at Moldovan people, aggravating their economic situation... This outside pressure requires an urgent consensus of all political forces in Moldova. A clear expression of general attitudes formulated on a broad basis, without anti-Russian sentiments, would have a positive feedback both in the country and from the international community, showing to everyone that Moldovan society cannot be split by blackmail." (Flux, December 21.)

ARMENIA

Some publications express the view that the rise in Russian gas prices may reverse Armenia's attitude towards Russia. "Our 'friend' Russia treats us any way it sees fit. There is nothing we can do about it: Russia can do anything it wants to its 'outpost.' It can, for example, take away plants, raise gas prices or even hinder the construction of another pipeline, so that the 1,500-mm gas pipe from Iran becomes 750-mm in Armenia lest we - Lord forbid! - should start selling it to others, infringing on Russia's interest." (168 Zham, December 21.)

The mass media write that due to the peculiarities of Armenia's domestic political situation, Yerevan is incapable of putting up resistance to Russia's political and economic pressure. "In this situation, a strong and geo-politically independent parliamentary opposition would be efficient... But there is no opposition... The fate of Armenian gas will depend on how pitiful [President] Robert Kocharyan will look and how touched Vladimir Putin will be." (Aikakan Zhamanak, December 21.)

GEORGIA

There is a wide coverage of the news that Gazprom is interested in the privatization of the Georgian main gas pipeline. The mass media maintain that in case of refusal, the Russian gas giant has promised to double gas prices for the country again. "It has turned out that if Gazprom does not get control over the pipeline in one form or another, it will rise gas prices to $200 per 1,000 cu m from 2007. In addition, in this case Gazprom will demand advance payments from Georgia and will not put up with accumulating debts for gas supplies. If Gazprom does get the pipeline, a contract will be signed and in 2006-2016 Russian gas will be supplied to Georgia at $110 per 1,000 cu m. Georgia has a year to think it over and to find alternative sources." (Rezonansi, December 26.)

The mass media traditionally pin hopes on the U.S. in this issue. "The U.S. has serious strategic interests in Georgia, linked with its influence in Central Asia and a brewing conflict with Iran. In this situation the United States will never allow Georgia to sell its gas mainline to Gazprom." (Ahali Taoba, December 27.)

AZERBAIJAN

The press stresses Azerbaijan's role in the Russian-U.S. confrontation on the oil and gas market, which promises to liberate the country from the northern neighbor's political dictate. "The looming prospect of 'energy shortage' has heated up the 'political atmosphere' in the global energy sector, where the confrontation between Russia and the United States promises to become soon the main topic on the agenda. Specifically, it will be Washington's desire to restrict Russia's role on the global energy market... There is no doubt that having won the casting vote on the international oil market, Russia will not hesitate to use energy supplies as a means of political pressure... Here it is useful to recall that it is Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan (and for the latter our country means access to the global oil market) that are the most viable oil sources for Europe, and an alternative to Russian supplies. It is here that the collision of Russian and American interests will become most acute and evident. Obviously, Azerbaijan is running out of time for pursuing a 'balanced policy' and delaying the moment of making its choice." (Ekho, December 24.)

The initiative to merge the Republic of Adygea with the Krasnodar Territory has received negative coverage. "The process of merging and enlarging Russian regions is gaining momentum... In fact, Adygea is to be dissolved in the Krasnodar Territory with its notoriously chauvinistic leaders. Besides, this is being done solely in the interests of the Slavic community, whose representatives do not want to be a non-eponymous minority... Apparently, Moscow realizes that an ethnic explosion in the region cannot be prevented and is trying to deprive future fighters for the independence of the Caucasus of the chance to contact the outside world bypassing Russia." (Ekho, December 23.)

KAZAKHSTAN

Most media write about the clash of Russian and Kazakh oil and gas interests, saying that Moscow is annoyed by Kazakhstan's independent projects and fears losing one of its instruments of pressure on the country. Journalists conclude that Russia is unlikely to choose to damage good partner relations with Kazakhstan and will therefore respect its interests.

"Problems are holding back the two countries' talks on extending the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Kazakhstan wants to increase oil production and export to the West; Russian companies are appalled because they also plan to increase oil production. They want to monopolize the export of energy resources from the former Soviet countries to Western Europe. Kazakhstan is one of the few post-Soviet states with which Russia has no problems, and so it will not want to create them without solid reason." (Navigator-II, December 21.)

KYRGYZSTAN

The biggest event of the outgoing year was Russia's "return" to Central Asia.

"Russia's strategy of conditional support of the region's political regimes has proved more effective and desirable than the United States' strategy of spreading democracy. The Central Asian leaders have seen that their utmost respect for the interests of the U.S. resulted in numerous destabilizing responses aimed at making the region's political regimes more democratic and at legalizing the opposition. As a result, the Central Asian political regimes have made a U-turn toward restoring relations with Moscow. Russia is indeed ready to bring investment and state projects to Central Asia, ensure the security and sovereignty of the rising national states, sign agreements on union relations, and supply arms and hardware." (Obshchestvenny reiting, December 21.)

Many publications write about the problems of Russian capital on the Kyrgyz market. Russia's Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Yevgeny Shmagin confirms this in his statement to the press: "Russian private business is having a hard time in Kyrgyzstan. All businessmen suffered as a result of the March events, which is why the Russian business community is wary of Kyrgyzstan." (Gazeta.KG, December 20.)

UZBEKISTAN

The local press writes about Russo-Chinese rivalry in Central Asia, noting the growing number of clashes between the interests of Russia and regional states despite their foreign policy accord. It writes that the two powers' interest in the region will grow in the future.

"Central Asia is not suffering from the lack of attention to its resources, since China and Russia have a major interest in them, and India has recently joined the club. China is not pleased with Russia's growing influence on the former Soviet states; likewise, Russia is not content with the possibility of China 'taking over' these states. Therefore, China-Russia relations in the region are regulated by this restraining factor, which prevents unceremonious interference in the region's affairs and resources. Full China-Russia agreement on the exclusion of the United States from the region is reinforcing the effect of this factor." (TRIBUNE-uz, December 26.)

The republican media welcomed the news about the agreement on the delivery of 29 Russian Tor-M1 air defense missile systems to Iran. "In the last 60 years, the U.S. has launched wars against North Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Grenada, Panama, Iraq, Somalia, Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, but never against Iran. So, who is the aggressor? How can one protect oneself from such threats as are repeatedly made against Tehran or Pyongyang? This can certainly encourage a country to get the bomb, because nobody rattles the saber at the countries that have it." (Vesti.uz, December 21.)

TAJIKISTAN

Writing about Russia's need for labor migrants, the Tajik press cites statements by a spokesman of the Russian-based New Eurasia Foundation, which has drafted a program of settling migration problems in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Its first stage is to be implemented in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. "Migrants are not a burden, and Russia is not a stepmother to immigrants from the CIS," the spokesman said. "Our intention is to support the operation of centers for comprehensive information, reference, legal and medical assistance to immigrants." (Avesta, December 23.)

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