MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti economic commentator Vasily Zubkov.) -- The process of joining the World Trade Organization has already taken Russia 13 years, but the goal has still not been achieved.
The Russian Economic Development Ministry, headed by German Gref, hopes to complete all bilateral accession talks in February-March. Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, also believes that Russia will join the WTO in 2006.
Rob Portman, the U.S. trade representative at the talks, also hopes that the Russian-American WTO-related talks will be completed this year. But some experts doubt a speedy conclusion of the talks. Among them is Geoffrey Shott, senior fellow at the Institute of World Economics. Lack of progress at the talks last autumn significantly reduced the probability of their completion by the end of 2006, he says. At present, four countries - the United States, Australia, Colombia and Switzerland - still object to Russia's accession.
Russia's long path to the WTO reminds of a point-to-point race: having cleared one hurdle, it stumbles upon another, more difficult each time. Having signed an agreement with the European Union settling all disputes last year, Russia encountered a new condition, which, if rejected, may lead to Europe revoking its consent. A new concession is demanded from the Russian government - to abolish tariffs for European planes flying over Siberia. This will cost the Russian budget 330-350 million Euro annually. Europe strongly opposes Russia's proposal to discuss the issue after its WTO accession.
This is one of the 17 obstacles that shut the door to the WTO for Russia. How can it accept the U.S. demand to open its financial market for branches of foreign banks, if last December President Putin announced it would not? How should it react to new demands of the U.S. Senate, which unanimously urged Russia to mount a fight against violations of intellectual property rights to be admitted to the WTO? At the same time, the United States recently acknowledged Russia's progress in IPR protection. Other unsettled problems between the two countries include a reduction of duties on U.S. planes and veterinary and phyto-sanitary norms for American food imports.
Traditionally, the United States is the last to endorse new WTO members. In doing so, it is first of all guided by its own national interests. This is, perhaps, the most difficult hurdle Russia will have to overcome. However, Maksim Medvedkov, Russia's chief negotiator at the WTO talks, says that the balance of forces is being adjusted from the American and European dominance towards taking into account the interests of all member states.
Russia can only rejoice at this situation. Its traditional trade and economic partners - developing countries - are beginning to play an increasingly important role. Brazil and India already have significant weight. At the conference in Hong Kong, China asserted itself for the first time, and made a strong impression. This testifies to the WTO becoming multi-polar, says Medvedkov. Russia is already thinking of the distinguished role it is going to play in the organization after its admission.
Russia has made the strategic decision on joining the WTO, and in the last five years its legislation has been brought in line with WTO requirements almost completely. Even disregarding the obstacles on its way, we have to admit that Russia is not rushing to join by all means, because there is no absolute certainty that it will benefit from the move, especially due to new enslaving conditions. Although official statistics shows that as many as 70% of Russians favor the accession, most of them urge the government not to hurry with major concessions.
Medvedkov has a broader view of the problem. "We want to avoid mistakes some of the countries made when joining: they spent significant resources on talks and acceded the WTO without a specific goal or objective, which led to their rather passive position within the organization. We want to be a active member of that organization involved effectively in its activities from the very first day," he said.
There is something else to it, though. Russian negotiators are obviously guided by China's example. After long and difficult talks, the Chinese joined the organization on terms that were first of all beneficial to their country, which overproduces cheap goods and needed new markets to sell them.
Russia's specific feature is huge energy and weapons exports. The WTO has only a minor influence on these goods. So in seeking WTO membership Moscow wants to meet its demand for state-of-the-art foreign technology and to get an opportunity to protect its trade and economic interests in a civilized way. It also hopes that the accession will bring additional investment in the country's economy.
One thing is clear, though: the party that has enough patience to defend its interests during the talks will eventually get the upper hand.
