What do Iran and Hamas have in common with Munich?

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MOSCOW. (Pyotr Romanov, RIA Novosti political commentator)

- Two seemingly unrelated problems - the Hamas victory in Palestine, and the Iranian nuclear program - have inconspicuously become similar, if not an integral whole. There are at least three reasons behind that. Firstly, all events in the Middle East are intertwined with each other. Secondly, both Iran and Hamas are determined to reach their goals (Iran is after nuclear weapons, while Hamas wants to destroy Israel, something to which Iran has no objections) in blatant disregard of any sensible arguments of international mediators. Finally, the same political figures - the U.S., EU, Russia, China, and UN - are trying to solve this tangle of contradictions, so far unsuccessfully.

Indicatively, the more polite the negotiators are with their insolent opponents, the more adamant the latter become. This is a typical situation both in everyday life, and in history. Hitler used to behave in much the same manner until this led to the infamous Munich deal, and eventually to World War II. The time and the situation are different today, but Iran and Hamas are more and more often bringing back the memories of Munich. Why is that?

It is true that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been violated more than once. So, Pakistan and India have nuclear weapons today. Israel is universally believed to have them, too, but Israel has not signed the NPT, and cannot be reproached legally for any wrongdoing. Like every treaty, the NPT has its letter and spirit. It is very important for the latter who gets the nuclear button. The world community was not happy about the emergence of three more nuclear powers, but it did not panic because their regimes are sensible, responsible, or under control, like Pakistan, where the U.S. plays the decisive role so far.

But the current regime in Iran is neither sensible, nor controlled by anyone. Iran is making steady progress not only in its nuclear program, but also in developing effective missile delivery vehicles. Moreover, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has made it clear that the first goal is to erase Israel from the face of the Earth.

It is not clear what can be done in this situation. For some time the world's diplomacy will act by force of inertia, but all current measures are ineffective and have no future. Will negotiations do the job? They make sense only if there is even the smallest chance to come to terms with an opponent. Here the chances are zero. Besides, who will believe Iran's "word of honor", even if it is forced to give one?

Iran is obviously trying to gain time in order to complete its nuclear enrichment effort. Once this is done, there will be a small and easy step to the nuclear bomb. The best evidence is Tehran's rejection of the Russian proposal to upgrade uranium for its peaceful atomic programs at a joint venture on Russian territory. IAEA Director-General Mohammed ElBaradei described the Russian initiative as a bridge to a just solution of the Iranian nuclear program. But the trouble is that Iran does not want to step on that bridge. After much procrastination, Iranian President Ahmadinejad replied to IAEA, Russia, and other negotiators: "The people of Iran will not be deceived by you." In fact, he accused his partners in the talks of lying. Who can still believe in peaceful Iranian atom?

The situation with Hamas is much the same. The only difference is that the spokesmen for this radical movement have not even tried to conceal their views. The world is ready to recognize their victory in Palestine, and even to deal with them, if they give up terrorist methods of struggle, and if they recognize Israel's right to exist. But they are adamantly negative to these ideas.

Moreover, the winners of democratic elections are now openly mocking at their yesterday's sponsors, the EU, because they are sure that Islamic fundamentalists will not leave Hamas militants penniless. It would be natural to ask: where have the European taxpayers contributed their money for so long? Into the prosperous life of the Arafat family?

Meanwhile, Israel, against which EU politicians have often lashed out, continues honoring its Road Map commitments, ousting by force its own compatriots from illegal settlements despite a sharp aggravation of the situation in Palestine, and domestic political complications on the eve of its own elections.

The world's diplomacy is in a very difficult situation. Hamas still has to consolidate its positions in Palestine, but the Iranian fundamentalists may acquire the nuclear bomb in a very short span of time. Nobody should have any illusions - if Iran gets the bomb tomorrow, Hamas will have it the day after tomorrow. It can land in the hands of any group of terrorists, even the most radical ones. Indisputably, the worst case scenario is a new Munich.

Ahmadinejad-run Iran is a source of concern even without nuclear weapons. It is creating a suicide bomber belt, which has been tested by terrorists many times. On this occasion it will have a nuclear button.

Do you feel safe in a world like that?

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