BEIRUT. (RIA Novosti political commentator Marianna Belenkaya.) - February 14 will mark one year since the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon's former prime minister and businessman, an event which shocked the country and the entire Middle East. Regional analysts were unanimous describing it as "a political earthquake." Hariri's death changed the balance of forces in the region, but the result of these changes was unexpected.
A year has passed, but the questions - who profited from the assassination of the former and, most probably, future prime minister, and who was behind it - remain unanswered. Each new day brings less hope that the answers will be found. There are also doubts as to whether we need the truth. After all, over the past year Hariri has turned into a myth and his death has become a bargaining chip for different political forces; not all of them want the perpetrators to be found.
Hariri's death upset the already fragile political balance in Lebanon and put Syria in the fire line, as Hariri's allies accused it of organizing the assassination. The international investigative commission has been working for over six months, but has still not found direct and incontestable evidence of Damascus' involvement, although it has been focusing on the Syrian trace, overlooking all other possible versions. Considering Hariri's extraordinary personality and the complicated situation in Lebanon and the entire regions, such versions could be many, both political and economic.
So, Syria is the main suspect. The former prime minister was killed in the midst of the U.S.-led international campaign against Damascus, the main charge being Syria's support of terrorists in Iraq. In fact, America's inability to put an end to the chaos in Iraq was blamed on the Syrian regime. It was also accused of interfering in Lebanon's domestic affairs (Syrian troops had been stationed there for almost 30 years) and hampering with the Palestinian-Israeli settlement by supporting extremist groups in Palestine. The Hariri case provided convenient grounds for putting pressure on Syria. The world immediately recalled the tension between Hariri and Syrian President Bashar Asad during the former's last year. But it preferred to forget that the tension had not escalated into an insoluble conflict.
In spring 2005, under mounting international pressure due to Hariri's assassination, Syria withdrew from Lebanon and Washington seemed to be celebrating its victory in the region. Alongside Iraq, Lebanon became American politicians' favorite example of democratic success in the Middle East. A few months later it turned out that the celebrations had been premature. Lebanon, as well as Iraq, did not become an island of calm and stability. Hariri's death was followed by a number of political assassinations and mistrust between different ethnic groups and religious denominations peaked.
As to the last year's outcome for the entire region, democracy has brought to power the forces the West was afraid of. Hamas won the election in the Palestinian Authority, ministers representing its ideological analog, Hezbollah, appeared in the Lebanese government, and Islamists increased their influence in Iraq. In these circumstances, attempts to overthrow the Syrian regime border on a death sentence.
Evidently, the United States should not try to put more pressure on Syria, unless Washington wants to bring chaos to another Middle Eastern country and hoist Islamists to power there. This means that America should not be interested in a further escalation of Syrian-Lebanese relations and looking for the Syrian trace in the Hariri case. On the other hand, abandoning this version will destroy the foundation for the U.S. policy in the Middle East in the past year. So the investigation into the murder can be drawn out forever, remaining a convenient way to maneuver in the region.
Now we can only hope for the wisdom of the Lebanese. At least, Rafiq Hariri, who worked hard to make them forget the consequences of the civil war, does not deserve his name being used to destabilize the situation in the country.
