Russia, Ukraine may join WTO simultaneously

MOSCOW. (Tatyana Stanovaya, an expert with the Center for Political Technologies, for RIA Novosti.)

The conclusion of Ukraine's talks with the Untied States on accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) came as an unpleasant surprise for Russia. The stand of the U.S. is the only remaining obstacle to Russia's entry into the WTO, though Moscow had advanced further than Kiev on this road.

One of the biggest intrigues in Russia-Ukraine relations is who gets WTO membership first. Passions would have subsided if not for the fear of Moscow and Kiev that the runner-up would have to hold accession negotiations with the winner.

Potential economic problems can be compounded with political difficulties. The first comer will prove its effectiveness compared to the runner-up. If Ukraine overtakes Russia in the race toward WTO membership, it may use this achievement to justify the "orange revolution" and confirm the correctness of its policy of European integration and the successes of the new regime. It looks a bit like the Soviet-American rivalry for leadership in the arms race or space exploration. There are such emotions in both countries but they should not be dramatized, though the situation is very complicated.

Russia's attitude to the completion of Ukraine-U.S. talks has two aspects. They concern attitudes to the American decision and to Kiev's achievement.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin said at a news conference with Russian and foreign journalists on January 31, 2006: "The main problem today concerns the settlement of issues with the United States. I think that as soon as we come to terms with it, Colombia (will follow suit). Nearly all other countries have supported Russia's accession to the WTO. Only the Untied States is restraining our accession."

The conclusion of the talks with Ukraine allows Washington to put pressure on Russia, in particular over the most painful issue of access of foreign banks' branches to Russia, against which the Russian government protests. It seems that the U.S. is keeping back Russia in order to open the WTO door for Ukraine. Its decision to let Ukraine go first bears on Russia-U.S. rather than on Russia-Ukraine relations.

Moreover, the conclusion of Ukraine-U.S. talks will not have a serious negative effect on Russia-Ukraine relations and can even have positive political results for Russia.

On January 4, 2006, a serious change was registered in Russia-Ukraine relations. The two states signed gas agreements that benefit Russia. Ukraine's political elite, including the once pro-Russian presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovich and Yuliya Tymoshenko, with which Moscow tried to flirt after her retirement, calls for invalidating the January agreements.

President Viktor Yushchenko, the only politician who can guarantee the implementation of the gas agreements, is becoming the most pro-Russian force in Ukraine (apart from Natalia Vitrenko's electorally weak movement Public Opposition). During the inauguration of Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev in Astana, Putin praised Yushchenko for keeping his word compared to the former Ukrainian leadership. He clearly meant Leonid Kuchma, who was believed to be loyal to Moscow.

For the first time since the "orange revolution", Russia wants the new authorities to keep power in order to fulfill the gas agreements.

The conclusion of WTO accession talks will benefit not so much the United States as Ukraine, which has opened up many of its economic sectors, including the whole of the services market. The conclusion of the talks will make Our Ukraine, the election block of Viktor Yushchenko, more attractive, which suits Russia's current interests.

U.S. trade representative Robert Portman said that the conclusion of the WTO accession talks confirmed Ukraine's commitment to broad reforms and economic liberalization, and its resolve to join the international trading system. This is a major political bonus for the current "orange" government.

There is one more reason not to be worried by the outcome of Ukraine-U.S. talks. While the main obstacle on the way of Russia's accession to the WTO is the United States, Ukraine's main obstacle is its own parliament. Ukraine has not completed the approval of the block of bills on WTO accession and will hardly be able to do this soon. The new parliament will start working in late fall and may turn out to be no less opposition-minded than the current one. In this case, it will take Yushchenko a great deal of time and effort trying to get the parliament's approval of Ukraine's accession to the WTO.

In short, Russia and Ukraine are running abreast toward WTO membership, and neither has overcome the main obstacle on this way. The U.S. is aware of this; its representatives have said more than once that Russia and Ukraine should join the WTO simultaneously, which would suit everyone. It appears that this is what is going to happen.