MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Vladimir Simonov.)
U.S. President George Bush must be disappointed. Shortly before the parliamentary elections in Ukraine, he signed a law lifting all the trade barriers in U.S.-Ukrainian trade, notably the infamous 1974 Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which links trade with U.S. with the freedom to emigrate and is still in effect in relations with Russia. This opened the door to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for Ukraine.
President Bush approved the law in a bid to strengthen the positions of Ukrainian leader Viktor Yushchenko and his supporters in the March 26 parliamentary elections. But he failed to attain his goal.
Ukrainians dealt a heavy blow to Yushchenko's party, Our Ukraine, which came in third behind the pro-Russian Party of the Regions, led by former prime minister and defeated 2004 presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych (about 30% of the vote), and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's eponymous bloc (22.49%). A former ally of Yushchenko, Tymoshenko lost the post of prime minister in his government over sharp differences in November 2005.
Western analysts are writing about the election results, searching for hidden reasons behind the revival of the political popularity of Yanukovych, who has been widely accused of rigging the 2004 presidential election results in his favor. They explain his success by the fact that the Party of Regions had secured the services of U.S. strategic consulting company Davis Manafort and the leading political advisers tapped for the election campaigns of both former U.S. presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr.
True, they might have taught Yanukovych to opt for blue suits instead of funeral-parlor black ones and to take off his tie when talking with everyday people. But there are more fundamental reasons behind his success.
The election results mirrored Ukrainians' reaction to the betrayal of hopes they had pinned on the leaders of the Orange Revolution. Contrary to their lavish promises, they have not raised living standards or contained corruption in the country. Economic plunder continued to bleed the national economy white; only the mafia clans have changed places. The country's GDP growth fell from 12% in 2004 to 2.5% in 2005. The gas conflict with Russia in early 2006 showed that Kiev has pushed relations with Moscow to a dangerous limit.
Throughout this, Moscow ally Viktor Yanukovych has retained and even increased his popularity in the already traditionally pro-Russian eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, where he is seen as a moderate independent politician who could improve the country's relations with Russia and possibly turn it into a bridge between Russia and the European Union.
"Ukraine will become what it has always been - a bridge between the West and the East, a potential member of the EU and a reliable partner of Russia," said Alexander Kiselyov of the Party of the Regions. This will not make the party pro-Russian, pro-European or pro-American, he said.
Yulia Tymoshenko wisely used her dismissal as prime minister to pose as an opponent of Yushchenko, and in this capacity, to steal a part of the votes from Yanukovych. Her bloc garnered the second largest number of votes, which promises a chance to regain the prime minister's seat in the revived and revised Orange coalition. But the Orange Princess dismisses the possibility of an alliance with Yanukovych's party.
President Yushchenko has been placed between the anvil and the hammer. Neither of the leaders of possible coalitions appeals to him, but, since his party underperformed in the elections, the president can only try to make the most of the situation and agree to a marriage of convenience of sorts.
Yushchenko is already in talks with Tymoshenko, according to information Tuesday. But the creation of a new model of an Orange government is fraught with more than just painful political compromises. A coalition with Tymoshenko would not be stable, and not just because of the personal feelings of the two heroes of the Orange Revolution.
The only thing they had had in common was protest against the regime of former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma. Their economic goals have always been different: Tymoshenko has been more pro-state than Yushchenko and did not share his enthusiasm for joining NATO. Yushchenko's team cannot accept the overall radicalism of Tymoshenko, which means that the second marriage of the old partners would be short-lived.
Western authors of post-Soviet strategies are aware of this. In the past few days, the United States and the EU started prompting Yushchenko to form a coalition with Yanukovych, which the incumbent president could present without losing face as an act of national reconciliation in a deeply split country.
Influential foreign observers said Yanukovych, despite his pro-Kremlin stance, is open to cooperation with the West. Even if the Orange team fails to overcome internal differences, there are certain areas in which Yushchenko and Yanukovych could work together.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
