Elections in Israel create local sensations

BEIRUT/TEL AVIV, (RIA Novosti's Marianna Belenkaya, Artur Gabdrakhmanov) -- The March 28 elections to the Israeli Knesset (parliament) created a local sensation, but will not influence the future of the region.

Just as polls predicted and all parties to the Middle East peace process expected, the election victory went to Israel's governing party, Kadima, led by Ehud Olmert.

For the first time in Israel's history, its voters were not torn between the right- and the left-wing parties, the "hawks" and the "doves". The Israeli political scene is such a mishmash right now, that it is difficult to draw a line between the two sides. This mean many voters were left feeling indecisive. In general, Israelis have grown weary of politics, which is why only 63.2% of the country's eligible voters came to polling stations and quite a few voted for the third option.

The defeat of Likud, which had led either the ruling coalition or the opposition, came as a surprise, even more so because it actually came in fifth, after the biggest ultra-religious party Shas and Avigdor Lieberman's party Yisrael Beiteinu (Our Home Israel).

All the recent polls predicted that the Russian-speaking politician would surge ahead in the election race. The majority of the Russian-speaking population voted for him.

Another sensation was created by the pensioners' party, Gil, which was predicted to get no more than two seats, but it instead received seven mandates. Now it will be able to exert substantial influence on the creation of a government coalition and the adoption of decisions on crucial matters.

This is not the first time in the nation's history that parties with fewer seats in the Knesset decided the voting results, because none of the main political forces could secure enough seats in the parliament to ensure the adoption of requisite resolutions.

This time, Olmert's Kadima received 28 of the 120 seats, and 20 seats went to the Labor Party (Avoda), led by Amir Peretz. Even if they join forces, the two parties will be unable to work without assistance, as at least 61 mandates are necessary to form a ruling coalition.

However, Kadima and Avoda will find enough allies in the Knesset to form a coalition and will even have the possibility for maneuver among parties. There are several options for a coalition, but the choice is to be made during inter-party talks. Israeli sociologists predict that the distribution of ministerial seats may take long, and that the multiparty government may crumble even over minor differences.

Israel has had one government crisis after another in the past decade. The March 28 elections were the fourth early elections held in the past seven years.

Internal instability in Israel is affecting the Middle East peace process, as attempts to accelerate the road map could provoke a government crisis. Olmert won only a minor advantage over his rivals, which will restrict his maneuvering abilities and force him to listen to the opposition and future coalition partners. However, he is resolved to implement his plan of marking Israel's borders by 2010, which promises new debates over the Middle East settlement in Israel and abroad.

The future Israeli prime minister has already called on Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), to resume talks. Abbas also expressed his readiness to talk with Israel before the election results were made public.

But the talks' future looks vague because the Palestinians cannot be satisfied with Olmert's plan of marking the borders of Israel (and consequently, the future Palestinian state), which he announced before the elections. Abbas will not accept this and the Palestinian parliament and government led by the radical Islamic movement Hamas will not ratify it.

At the same time, the future premier hinted that if his plan were not supported by the Palestinians, a decision would be made unilaterally. However, this is quite impossible without the support of the international community.

It is not surprising therefore that Avigdor Lieberman told RIA Novosti: "The Quartet is the main asset with whom to discuss the marking of permanent borders, and next come our more influential neighbors Egypt and Jordan."

The leader of Our Home Israel said practical plans could be discussed only after solving the problem with certain intermediaries and neighbors.

Olmert knows this very well and is ready to make the issue of permanent borders a subject of broad internal dialogue and consultations with foreign partners in the peace process.

This promises a long and difficult negotiating process, which will have to cross many obstacles on both sides of the conflict, from terrorist attacks and military operations to government crises. But then, this is how it has always been, and the Israeli elections have not changed anything in that sense. They only marked the beginning of another attempt to settle the regional conflict.