MOSCOW, April 10 (RIA Novosti) Lukashenko must either lose power or merge Belarus with Russia / Russia in no hurry to join WTO / Duma will adopt any law approved by the Kremlin - opinion / Kremlin to bury Lenin / New ADR program will boost Gazprom stock / Gazprom delays development of Siberia's Kovykta deposit
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Kommersant
Lukashenko must either lose power or merge Belarus with Russia
The third, and probably last, inauguration of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, held in Minsk last Saturday, showed that the isolation of Belarus had become complete. The president's old foe, the European Union, has announced new sanctions against Minsk, and his main ally, Russia, has raised gas prices.
Lukashenko can choose between economic and social shocks and the subsequent loss of power, and gradual loss of sovereignty and the subsequent incorporation of Belarus into Russia.
The trap was laid by the Kremlin, which had defended Lukashenko from Western criticism during the election campaign making the Belarusian authorities feel safe. They did not even try to pretend that the elections were democratic or to show respect for the opposition. Lukashenko forced himself into a corner by ordering the removal of the opposition's tent camp and the peace demonstration, which made truce, or even dialog, with the EU impossible.
Moscow decided to exploit the problems of its ally. Gazprom's announcement of an increase in gas prices promises ruin to the Belarusian economy and an end to its "economic miracle," which burgeoned exclusively on Russian gas.
On the other hand, the Belarusian president can help Moscow solve the problem of the 2008 presidential election by agreeing to an accelerated integration into the Union State. Lukashenko, who has been sabotaging unification with Russia, may have to agree to build the union according to the Russian scenario. He can cede his presidential advantages to keep part of his former powers and protect Belarus from an economic catastrophe.
A source close to the Kremlin said Belarus could get gas at Russia's domestic prices only by agreeing to become a part of Russia. Lukashenko has two years to make the choice.
Izvestia
Russia in no hurry to join WTO
The Russian government is seriously considering putting off its bid for accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), a senior government official told Izvestia, a respected daily.
The government is concerned over additional U.S. demands on Russia's accession, and that any hasty decisions could seriously damage agriculture, the light industry and the machine-engineering sector, the source said.
"Although Moscow has repeatedly met various foreign demands, some countries, the United States included, are deliberately trying to prevent Russia's admission to the WTO." It appears that the government has now started listening to WTO opponents.
"Imported goods may stifle unprotected local producers," said Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, who staunchly opposes WTO membership. Russian Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeev, another WTO opponent, told the paper that transitional countries should not join this "harmful organization" because their agricultural sectors could not exist without state subsidies.
The U.S. position irritates the Russian authorities, including President Vladimir Putin, who told businessmen that Washington's demands were artificial. Putin said there were numerous restrictions on Western markets, and that ideas of free trade were mere talk. In fact these markets are very closed, and it is impossible to enter them, he said.
A government official told Izvestia that the price of WTO entry was more important than specific deadlines. "We can afford to wait in this situation, because WTO membership could spell real economic problems for Russia," he said.
Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament, said that Moscow should not hurry to join the WTO. "Instead of suspending this process, we should bargain stubbornly for favorable WTO-access terms," Kosachev told the paper.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Duma will adopt any law approved by the Kremlin - opinion
Legislative initiatives that are unpopular among much of the population, such as confiscation of property, trials in absentia, and criminal punishment for journalists, were hotly debated last week. Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta asks politicians and political experts whether there is a politician in the country who will take responsibility for repressive laws.
Sergei Popov, State Duma independent legislator, said: "We have only one politician who could do this. His name is Vladimir Putin. Any law will pass with his name on it."
Eduard Limonov, leader of the radical National Bolshevik Party, said: "The Duma will adopt anything, even a cannibalism act. They usually almost unanimously vote for bills introduced by the government, to say nothing of those introduced by the president. Convictions in absentia also go quite well with the current political line. Such laws will be adopted without doubt. Maybe they feel it's just not exactly the right time, so they are probing public opinion to see what the response is going to look like."
Sergei Markov, director of the Institute for Political Studies, said: "I think these bills are populist, rather than unpopular. There are many politicians who will willingly take responsibility for such populist projects as tougher punishments for media or property confiscation. However, the lawmakers tend to do nothing by themselves; they are just waiting to do what the Kremlin tells them to."
Nikolai Levichev, second-in-command in Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov's Party of Life, said: "Many politicians will be happy to do this, because these measures are to protect the interests and rights of a great number of citizens. The foot-dragging possibly has to do with the other part of the population, whose interests will be affected by these laws. They are simply better at lobbying than most of the people."
Novye Izvestia
Kremlin to bury Lenin
The Kremlin has decided to bury Lenin and the Communist Party would lose the battle in defense of the "leader of the planet's proletariat", according to experts.
"Lenin's actions pushed the country into a social, economic and spiritual dead-end, slowed down its development and isolated it from the civilized world," say scientists from the Institute of Russian History (Russian Academy of Sciences).
Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party of Russia (KPRF), has accused them of falsifying history and making provocative statements. Viktor Tyulkin, leader of the Russian Communist Workers' Party, said the scientists were "lackeys" dreaming of getting "assistance from the anti-popular regime of modern Russia" during the forthcoming elections of non-voting members of the academy.
Dmitry Oreshkin, leader of the Merkator think tank, said the debates on Lenin's reburial were initiated by the Kremlin, which "wanted to expose the archaic communist thinking" and "slash the Communists' electorate."
The goal of the Kremlin is to reduce the KPRF to the deplorable state of the Ukrainian communist party, which had once been the second biggest political power but got less than 4% of the vote at the latest parliamentary elections.
"Lenin is not longer sacred, and nobody regards his mummy seriously," the expert said. "As to the Communists, they reaffirm their lunacy and show to the people that their teaching had become obsolete."
Oreshkin said debates on the burial of Lenin's mummy were for the Communist Party's popularity like acid for metal: "Pour the acid and wait for the metal to corrode." The expert said Lenin would be buried after the elections. "It would be senseless to do this before [the elections], but after them the necessity will become glaring."
Vedomosti
New ADR program will boost Gazprom stock
Experts said that Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom's plans to issue ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) will be eagerly received by foreign and domestic investors. Up to 35% of Gazprom's statutory capital could be converted into ADRs, and each ADR would equal four, rather than ten, company shares. Investment banks are now revising their estimates of Gazprom's value.
The price of Gazprom shares is now the same on Russian and global markets. As of April 7, Gazprom's capitalization totaled $214.2 billion on the London Stock Exchange and $213.5 billion on the Russian Trading System (RTS). Before the Gazprom share market was liberalized in late 2005, there was a disparity of 150-200% between Gazprom's locally-traded shares and its depositary notes.
On Friday, Gazprom asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register a new first-level ADR program accounting for not more than 35% of the company's statutory capital (now 4.42%). "ADRs would be converted into shares under the new program, while the current program expressly forbids this," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told Vedomosti, a respected business daily.
The new program would help reassess the value of Gazprom, whose stocks would account for 3.42%, rather than 0.3%, of the MSCI-GEM emerging markets index, and would become second only to Samsung. Leonid Mirzoyan, director of the Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein analytical department, said many trust-fund managers based their work on corporate stock-market indexes.
"Gazprom shares have been selling well for the last four months," said Aton analyst Dmitry Lukashov. Although foreign investors officially own 4% in Gazprom, this share is much higher due to grey schemes. Lukashov said that foreigners probably owned more shares than Russian companies, which preferred to keep their securities offshore, and that their share was likely to increase.
On April 7, Morgan Stanley raised the fair price of Gazprom ADRs from $67 to $140.
Biznes
Gazprom delays development of Siberia's Kovykta deposit
Russian energy giant Gazprom has found another argument to postpone the development of the Kovykta deposit in eastern Siberia.
Alexander Ananenkov, deputy chairman of the company's management committee, said that international feasibility studies on the project have not resolved the issue of processing helium, and that the adoption of related investment decisions will take not less than five years.
Recurring delays, analysts believe, are being brought about because the state, as represented by Gazprom, will benefit from waiting for higher export prices by changing the schedule for gas deliveries to China.
TNK-BP (which owns 62.4% of RUSIA Petroleum, licensed to develop the East Siberian deposit with 1.9 trillion cubic meters of gas) says that Kovykta is ready for development. The Russian-British joint venture is confident that early gas will reach the Irkutsk Region by the end of the year. The timeframe for export supplies may be subject to alterations.
"Gazprom is attempting to put off the development of Kovykta until 2015, when West Siberian reserves begin to run dry," a source in the industry said.
"However, Ananenkov's position is not wholly approved in the company; some of the management are certain that the project must begin now to ensure the amounts of gas initially promised to China."
The state, in the form of Gazprom, has not yet finally made up its mind whether to sell "crude" natural gas from Kovykta or convert it in Russia: the pipeline substantially limits the choice of consumer, comments Khalil Shekhmametyev, head of research at Otkrytie brokerage.
Even if the government reaches a final decision this year on exporting gas from Eastern Siberia and the Far East, Kovykta supplies to China will not begin until 2012-2013, RUSIA Petroleum Director General Valery Pak said.
As contracted between TNK-BP, South Korea's Kogas, and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), gas supplies from Kovykta to these countries will begin in 2008.
