What the Russian papers say

MOSCOW, April 18 (RIA Novosti) Iran air-defense deal shot down?/NGOs fear the future/Appeal to Putin to run again unlikely to succeed/Ethnic elites fighting their corner/World Bank proposals get negative reaction

(RIA Novosti does not accept responsibility for articles in the press)

Vedomosti

Russia's air-defense system sales to Iran in doubt

Continued tension around Iran's controversial nuclear program may stymie Russia's plans to sell Tor M-1 surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems to Tehran, experts say. Moscow may also renounce the deal under U.S. pressure, while others saw no obstacles to the sale. State arms exporter Rosoboronexport inked a $900-million contract for the sale of Tor M-1 SAMs to Iran in November 2005. The missiles have a range of 12 km, and are designed to take out cruise missiles, guided bombs and other air-launched "smart" weapons.
A source close to Rosoboronexport told the paper that Moscow planned to deliver the first Tor M-1s this fall, as staff had not yet been trained, adding that he saw no problems hindering the contract.
Sergei Markov, a political analyst and member of the new Public Chamber, said last week that Moscow had deliberately halted the contract in order to meet Washington halfway, but that Russia's Western partners had failed to appreciate the move.
Jane's Intelligence Digest weekly said the delivery of decommissioned Russian S-300-PS SAM systems to Belarus aimed to cover up their further sale to Iran, but the Defense Ministry's press service called these allegations "pure gibberish." A source in the Air Force said Belarus had exported an S-300 system to the United States, rather than "rogue states," in 1996, because Washington wanted to study its design.
Konstantin Makiyenko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told the paper that Tehran's insolvency was the only factor that could torpedo the Tor M-1 deal, while Moscow's possible refusal to follow through on the contract under U.S. pressure would damage its reputation as an arms exporter.
Makiyenko said Tor M-1 SAMs could not stop an all-out U.S. air strike against Iran. Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow office of the Center for Defense Information, said a possible American decision to "punish" Iran would not depend on that country's air-defense potential.

Kommersant

Rights activists say government may shut down unwanted NGOs

Amendments to federal laws imposing tougher regulations on NGOs came into force Tuesday, and the government is now drafting subordinate legislation to enact the law. Human rights activists said the new law on NGOs would be more "sinister" than they had expected, and that the government would now have the power to shut down any unwanted NGO through the courts.
"We can now stop building a civil society: it will take all our effort and time to fill in Federal Registration Service forms," said Nina Tagankina, executive officer at the Moscow Helsinki Group, Russia's oldest human rights organization.
In addition to detailed reports for the Registration Service, NGOs will still have to submit their accounts to the tax service and to report to the Justice Ministry.
"Small public organizations will now be buried under heaps of documents, and the rest will find things hard. Experience shows that Federal Registration Service officials will feel free to file suits demanding that NGOs be shut down for violations, as happened to us," said Lyubov Vinogradova, director of the Research Human Rights Center.
The Registration Service asked for a court order January to shut down the RHRC over an overdue report. A court rejected the petition April 10.
"The true meaning of the law on NGOs is clear now," said Svetlana Gannushkina, a member of the presidential board on assistance to civil society institutions. "It is impossible to make a ton of faultless reports for the Federal Registration Service. Officials will check NGOs with a 'dubious' political stance and shut them down through the courts for any faults on absolutely legitimate grounds."
Public organizations will have to submit their first new-type reports in a year's time. Representatives of the Federal Registration Service and the Justice Ministry said this would be enough time for NGOs to get ready for new relations with the government.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Putin again called on to run for reelection

Another initiative suggesting a third presidential term for Vladimir Putin was submitted to parliament Monday by an obscure North Ossetian public movement. Experts say the appeal will be disregarded, like all previous calls from regional administrators and parliaments to amend the Constitution.
The North Ossetian organization, Accord and Stability, said there were no guarantees Putin's successor would be a man of the same caliber. Organization head Valery Gizoyev downplayed the dismissal of all previous appeals to Putin to run again.
"Previous appeals were right," he said. "Putin can run for a third term if Russians say so."
Accord and Stability, which was established four years ago and has 2,000 members, supports pro-Kremlin party Untied Russia.
"But we are not at anyone's beck and call," Gizoyev said.
Valery Kadokhov, the North Ossetian parliament's representative to the upper house of Russia's parliament, said "a critical pro-presidential mass" was accumulating in Russia.
Moscow does not seem to share the enthusiasm of Taimuraz Mamsurov, president of North Ossetia and head of the local branch of United Russia, who said the idea of a referendum on Putin's third term was "proof of the maturity of [North Ossetian] civil society and of its growing political awareness."
Andrei Isayev, chairman of the board commission of Untied Russia's general council, said: "Putin is against amending the Constitution, and our party fully supports him on this count." He said the lower house of parliament had rejected a similar initiative by deputies from the Ivanovo Region.
"They want to be holier than the Pope, while framing Putin. Every such initiative provokes a wave of accusations of [Putin's] plans to usurp power," said Sergei Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies.
Alexei Makarkin, deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, said appointing a good successor was the best way to solve the succession problem, and that the authorities were already waging a PR campaign to that effect.

Novye Izvestia

Ethnic elites likely to oppose mergers of regions - expert

The majority of residents of Irkutsk Region and Ust-Ordyn Autonomous Area have approved a merger between the two regions, but experts warn that local ethnic elites may oppose the further enlargement of individual regions.
"The 'ethnically Muslim' regions will face the greatest problems," said Sergei Mikheyev, deputy director general of the Center for Political Technologies. "They benefit from their status as quasi-states within Russia, and enjoy significant economic and political preferences."
Mikheyev said ethnic elites in regions that depend on subsidies from the federal budget "constantly exploit the themes of separatism, nationalist moods and discontent." Merging with other regions would lower their political status and also cut off economic privileges, he said.
Khazret Sovmen, president of Adygeya, an ethnic republic within Krasnodar Territory, criticized an initiative voiced by Kuban Governor Alexander Tkachev in December 2004 to merge the two regions.
Mikheyev said Adygeya was now a battlefield for elites in the North Caucasus that oppose such mergers.
"Certainly, they will make threats, for Adygeya is a pilot scheme in the North Caucasus," said the political analyst.
"The move is tacitly backed by all elites in the whole of the North Caucasus," said Mikheyev. "They believe the federal center would not encroach on others if it were a failure in Adygeya."
Alexander Konovalov, president of the Institute of Strategic Studies and Analysis, said a merger should be put off to better times.
"If the region stages protests, it would be hard to maintain control of the tense local social-economic and political situation," he said.

Biznes

World Bank proposes investing Russian money in the West - expert

If the government decides to invest money from the Stabilization Fund, set up to accumulate windfall revenues from oil exports, then by 2030 the fund will amount to $2.29 trillion, the World Bank says. But Russian financial experts doubt the plausibility of such long-term calculations, and disagree with the role of a rent-seeker proposed for the country.
The World Bank suggests that the Stabilization Fund be invested in foreign government bonds and stocks. Its calculations are based on the assumption that oil prices will remain high even in 25 years' time, gradually declining to $40 per barrel, that budget spending will be around 17% of gross domestic product (GDP), and that GDP growth will slow from 5.5% to 3%.
"This is in fact a proposal to invest our money in Western governments and economies," said Polina Lazich, analyst of TsentrInvest Securities, commenting on the World Bank report. This scenario will result in an industrial shutdown, she said.
"No one can say what will happen in 25 years, even whether there will be demand for oil at all," she said. Oil windfall revenue should be used to help modernize industry, for example, by providing guarantees on loans and purchase foreign equipment. "If we do not start investing in fixed assets now, no stabilization fund will be able to save us in ten years," Lazich said.
Valery Mironov, senior analyst at the Development Center, also said the proposal was unattractive. "All these calculations are very relative. If there are no investment projects in the country - and there are limits to domestic investment - then it will be expedient to investment the Stabilization Fund in foreign production assets, to buy them out and make Russian property," he said.
Nikolai Podguzov, analyst with Trast investment bank, said it was unlikely that Stabilization Fund money could remain invested until 2030, as proposed by the World Bank. "The goal of the fund is not to profit, but to preserve money. A normal conservative portfolio usually has no more than 40% of stocks, not 60%," he said.

Gazeta.ru

Bulgaria set to become Russian power distributor for Balkans

Experts said the Russian power industry could expand its operations in the Balkans if the Bulgarian government allows Atomstroiexport, Russia's sole exporter of nuclear technology, to complete the country's Belene nuclear power plant (NPP).
The scheme would involve establishing a firm called New Nuclear Company using the incomplete Belene NPP and five or six reactors at the Kozloduj NPP. New Nuclear Company will own the new NPP, after attracting a strategic investor.
Atomstroiexport, which may build two 1,000-mWt VVER water-cooled and moderated reactors, said it would charge between $1.2 billion and $4 billion for the project.
Russian nuclear scientists said Bulgaria would become a regional power distributor after the Belene NPP was completed. Officials at electricity monopoly Unified Energy Systems told the paper that an Atomstroiexport victory would help promote the company's regional interests.
"Sofia's final choice may depend on the fact that the Soviet Union built the Kozloduj NPP in Bulgaria," said Igor Nuzhdin of Solid investment consultants. Finam analyst Mikhail Pak said Atomstroiexport charged "much lower prices than similar foreign companies."
Experts said the possible involvement of Atomstroiexport in the Belene NPP construction project reflected Russia's foreign energy policy. Alfa Bank analyst Alexander Kornilov said state strategic interests were primarily seen in specific projects of state-run companies like Gazprom, RAO UES and Atomstroiexport, while Nuzhdin agreed that Atomstroiexport's possible victory would match Russia's ambitions as a leading energy supplier and a major power-equipment producer.