MOSCOW, May 6 (RIA Novosti) Ukraine, Georgia under fire over CIS quit threats/Russia and U.S. no longer partners?/How should Russia reply to Cheney?/Aeroflot to push ahead with Airbus deal/Russia helping Iran avoid economic sanctions
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Kommersant
Russian politicians threaten economic reprisals against Ukraine and Georgia
Kiev has followed Tbilisi's example and said it is seriously considering leaving the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Russian politicians, in reaction to the anti-integration initiatives of color-revolution leaders, have threatened serious economic problems for Ukraine and Georgia.
Vadim Gustov, chairman of the committee for CIS affairs of the Federation Council, the upper house of parliament, told the paper that Ukraine could face colossal unemployment, and that economic relations would be revised and energy tariffs raised once again. Gustov said the Ukrainian economy is oriented toward Russia, and relies heavily on its market, the main destination for Ukrainian goods. "No one in Europe needs Ukrainian goods; and their subsequent sale outside the CIS is doubtful," said Gustov.
The senator said the recent criticism of Russia in Lithuania was a reversion to cold war tactics. "Ukraine has virtually joined a big political game aiming to establish a new sanitary cordon around Russia," said Gustov.
Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, said Kiev and Tbilisi wanted to aggravate relations with Russia because they hoped to expedite integration into West European and trans-Atlantic structures. "Hopes for easier integration amount to wishful thinking, because nobody inside these structures is waiting for Georgia and Ukraine," said Kosachev.
These statements are a verbal warning. Moscow has already demonstrated its ability to punish intractable neighbors. The Kremlin has many political instruments, as seen in the recent gas war against Ukraine, and trade wars with Georgia and Moldova, used to pressure its political opponents. Russia may introduce a visa regime, if Ukraine decides to leave the CIS; Moscow may also abolish the system introduced two years ago for Ukrainian citizens on Russian territory, through which they can remain without registration for three months. Such measures would cause Kiev much more trouble than that inflicted by the Russian-Georgian "wine war."
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Russian-U.S. strategic partnership dead - expert
There is no global-scale hostility between the Untied States and Russia, nor will there be in the future. The Cold War is truly over, Alexander Rahr, director of the Korber-Unit, a joint institution of the Korber Foundation and the German Council on Foreign Relations, told popular daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta.
Nevertheless, statements made by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney at the Baltic and Black Sea summit in Vilnius show that there is no friendship between the two nations either. The period of strategic partnership and the joint U.S.-Russian counterterrorism coalition is over.
The U.S. administration suspects Moscow of intending to rebuild itself as an energy superpower, because in this capacity it would be able to radically change the geopolitical situation in Europe and Asia.
Rahr writes that Washington does not want Russia to become a leader in the diplomatic settlement of regional conflicts, notably in Iran and the rest of the Middle East.
Moreover, there is a probability of Russian-U.S. rivalry in former Soviet territories. Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and possibly Azerbaijan, want to join NATO, and Russia is bound to see this as an attempt to squeeze it out of the region. And this is happening at a time when Washington should be joining forces with Moscow in a much more important undertaking - the fight against terrorism.
According to the German researcher, the West is concerned about the Russian political elite's priority goals: the strengthening of the state, preventing its disintegration, and creating acceptable living conditions for the people in an efficient economy. These ideas are taking precedence over freedom and democracy in Russia.
Rahr writes that the Vilnius summit will not provoke another cold war, primarily because Russia has not abandoned the idea of close cooperation - and possibly partial integration - with the West. But it wants to do this on its terms and with due regard for its national interests.
Trud
Russian foreign minister could give tough reply to Cheney - expert
Dick Cheney, a ceremonial bystander at the Vilnius forum of Baltic and Black Sea states, delivered an address on West-Russia relations that made Russian analysts talk of "another Fulton" in reference to Winston Churchill's famous "Iron Curtain" speech of 1946. Political experts argue whether Russian President Vladimir Putin or at least Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov should have gone to the Lithuanian capital to assert Russia's stance.
Alexander Konovalov, president of the Institute of Strategic Assessment and Analysis, said that the invitation to Vilnius should have been turned down in any case.
"We do need to learn how to build democracy, but there is no point in going to a conference to listen to accusations of constantly oppressing neighboring states and using power as a weapon," he said. "It is a waste of money to attend an event to be lashed out at. Moscow has never opposed any unions within the CIS without its participation. Yet the idea of a union of Baltic and Caucasian states is not quite clear, especially as these nations are far from the wealthiest."
An expert close to the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, who asked to remain anonymous, said, "We should not act like maudlin provincial girls. OK, we may have to hear unpleasant things that we disagree with, so what? We have to put up with scolding, mockery and scorn. But we should not keep silent, but respond - calmly, without hysteria, reasonably and logically. This is, in fact, what the art of diplomacy is about. Perhaps the president should not have appeared at this Vilnius gathering among some unfriendly heads of state. But the foreign minister could have made Russia's stance reach the audience. In a tough manner, if necessary, as a similar answer to Dick Cheney. Why do we have to be afraid?"
Vedomosti
Aeroflot to receive Airbus jetliners
Russian officials have decided that national air carrier Aeroflot will buy European-made Airbus A-350 liners instead of Boeing 787 Dreamliners apparently because of America's tough stand in talks on Russia's bid to joint the World Trade Organization.
Aeroflot managers, who have been trying to choose between the mid-size Dreamliner and the A-350 since last summer, said they would need 22 airliners in this class by 2014 and another 12 planes in 2015-2017.
The $3-billion deal (minus discounts and options) will become the largest contract for the Russian aircraft market.
A Kremlin official said the Aeroflot board of directors had decided to buy the A-350 on April 27. Lev Koshlyakov, Aeroflot deputy director, said the board had discussed a tender and adopted a decision that is yet to be made public.
A source familiar with Aeroflot-Airbus talks said it was decided to put off an announcement this week after an Armenian A-320 crashed into the Black Sea near Sochi on May 3, killing 113 people, 27 Russians included.
Boris Rybak, general director of the Infomost aviation consultancy, said this tragedy would not affect the Airbus-Aeroflot contract because the A-350 and the B-787 had similar specifications, and many Boeing aircraft crashed last summer.
A Kremlin official said Aeroflot had made the right choice given the unwarranted U.S. pressure of the WTO, and a government official called Boeing's defeat "an asymmetrical response."
Yaroslav Lisovolik, senior economist with Deutstche UFG, said Airbus had scored a political victory. "Moscow is telling Washington not to pressure it too hard on WTO-accession talks because many profitable contracts and privileges will otherwise go to the EU," Lisovolik said.
Gazeta.ru
Russia to help Iran avoid international sanctions
Iranian companies are searching for ways to invest outside the "isolation zone." A Russian defense holding in the Urals may offer such a possibility.
Motovilikhinskiye Zavody, located in Perm in the Urals, is one of the largest Russian machine-building companies, with special interests in arms production; it also manufactures equipment the oil and gas sector.
A modern Russian-Iranian plant is to be established at its facilities to produce carriers and trailers for export to Europe. The two countries may broaden their cooperation to the defense sector.
Iranians were encouraged to team up with Russians following a particular contract with European companies, who for understandable reasons are more willing to buy vehicles assembled in Russia than in Iran.
The Urals company's deputy director, Alexander Gorodetsky, said the sides have a five-year contract for deliveries to Europe and Southeast Asia. The contract was signed because of the deteriorating international situation around Iran.
"The decision to locate the plant in Russia was made because of the complicated political and international situation surrounding Iran," another spokesman of the Russian company said.
Analysts are divided over this news. Elena Sakhnova, an analyst with Deutsche UFG, doubts that the Iranians will implement this project in Russia.
Dmitry Parfenov, an analyst with Prospekt brokerage, said the market is too small. This could lead to the creation of a monopoly producer of this kind of equipment in Russia.
"In view of the political events surrounding Iran, Russia seems to be the only country with which Iran can maintain business relations," said Igor Nuzhdin of the Solid investment company. "A civilian contract is important to any defense company, irrespective of the client."
Mikhail Pak of the Finam investment company said the contract would ensure an additional annual inflow of $15-$20 million for the company. "And we cannot rule out further strengthening of the Perm region's relations with Iran, including in the defense sphere."
