MOSCOW, (RIA Novosti political commentator Vladimir Simonov) - As any hopes of success wane in the fourth year of the Iraqi war, a theatrical gesture may be the only way to revive them.
This Tuesday U.S. President George W. Bush made a surprise five-hour visit to Baghdad - to show the new Iraqi government that America was standing by it, and to lift the voters' spirits before the midterm November elections to Congress.
As surfers say, Bush is trying to catch the wave raised by two events favoring American interests - the creation of Iraq's first permanent government, and the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, in a U.S. air strike.
On June 7, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appointed the two remaining cabinet ministers, of the interior and defense, and American fighter planes razed to the ground the building in which Iraq's Number One terrorist was hiding.
The organizers of the blitz visit thought it was a brilliant idea. Bush's meeting with al-Maliki was aimed to draw the attention of the global media to the new Iraqi government and buttress its prestige, and, most importantly for Washington, to ensure the success of the new package of measures against the growing armed resistance in Iraq.
A sweeping purge has started in Baghdad this week. Tens of thousands of U.S. and Iraqi troops are trying to enforce a curfew from 8:30 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. and to discourage the people from carrying weapons without a permit. Washington thought that the Maliki government would have found it difficult to make this painful move without the assistance of the U.S. president, who appeared in Baghdad like Jack in the box.
In fact, Bush's visit looked farcical and proved counterproductive.
Has the situation in Iraq really improved? It does not seem so, because the U.S. president had to lie to his team - he left a conference early Monday evening so as "to read a book before going to bed" - and to the press, which went to Camp David for a TV linkup of the U.S. administration with the Iraqi authorities. And lastly, he had to lie to his host, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who was told about the trip only five minutes before meeting Bush at the U.S. Embassy.
This "top secret" aura of the trip proves that the war on terror is not succeeding, although the presidential speechwriters never tire of saying the contrary, and U.S. relations with Iraq remain troubled. At best, they can be described as the relations of a rider and a horse.
Maliki had hardly felt himself the premier of a sovereign state when he was speeded off to the U.S. Embassy for a meeting with "somebody." This will do little to boost the prestige of his cabinet, contrary to the aspirations of the visit organizers.
Such theatricals can propel the image of the star performer, but not for long, especially because U.S. achievements in Iraq are not as unquestionable as Washington claims. The liquidation of the al Qaeda leader in Iraq has not wreaked havoc in the terrorist network. A new leader has been appointed and a series of explosions in Baghdad shows that June might break the bloody May record, when 2,155 people died in terrorist attacks in the city.
The killing of al-Zarqawi, a radical Sunni who had a pathological hatred for Shias, can boomerang at American interests, because al-Zarqawi was the main obstacle to the unification of Iraq's two Islamic communities into a broad anti-American coalition. U.S. troops in Iraq may be sorry yet for getting rid of the man who loved blowing up Shiite mosques more than American Hummers.
The positive effect of the visit on the public mood back home will be short-lived too. A week after the killing of al-Zarqawi, Bush's rating rose by 2% to 38%, and the surprise visit to Baghdad might add another point or two. But it looks a bit like a knee jerk reflex.
For the majority of Americans, the one and only unquestionable proof of Bush's success in Iraq will be the withdrawal of American troops, even if partial and initially symbolic. Senator John Kerry (D-MA), who had run for presidency, seriously annoyed Bush by asking on the day of his blitz visit when the U.S. troops would be pulling out of Iraq.
As much as Bush would love to, he cannot perform this miracle in time for the midterm November elections to Congress, although the situation in Iraq is "hopeful," is allegedly headed "in the right direction," and should "bring democracy to the Broader Middle East."
According to Pentagon sources, the U.S. plans to keep at least 50,000 troops, or 10% of the national army, in Iraq for decades after the end of Bush's term.
So, the repertoire of the Bush Theater does not include a play about Iraq with a happy ending.
