MOSCOW, (RIA Novosti political commentator Marianna Belenkaya)-
Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian National Authority, has announced a referendum on the National Accord Document, which envisages the creation of an independent Palestinian state with the capital in East Jerusalem and within the borders that existed before the Arab-Israeli war in 1967. The decision set off heated debates within the Palestinian establishment, but the majority of ordinary people favor the referendum. A poll conducted by the Bir Zeit University, Palestine, shows that 77% approve of the initiative and are ready to say yes to the Document.
What will their yes mean and what is the document at issue? Palestinians are ready to vote in favor of a national unity government and to put an end to clashes between different groups that go beyond the House of Parliament and spill into the city streets, incurring victims among civilians. They also hope (at least this is what Abbas maintains) that once the Document is adopted, the economic blockade, introduced by the international community after Hamas, which refuses to recognize Israel, won the parliamentary election last January, will be lifted.
Formally, Abbas is right. Proclaiming Palestine within the 1967 borders is an indirect recognition of Israel's right to exist, which is one of the main conditions for the blockade to be lifted. However, the international community demands this recognition from Hamas rather than Palestinian people. But Hamas, together with Islamic Jihad, intends to boycott the referendum, although the Palestinian Islamists had signed the document earlier.
The Document was drafted by senior representatives of different Palestinian groups detained in Israeli prisons. This is the only national document signed by Fateh, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Democratic and Popular Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine. For the first time, Palestinian Islamists officially stated the possibility of proclaiming a state within the 1967 borders. In the past, they had viewed this only as an interim measure.
But the problem with this Document of the Jailed is in its failure to provide grounds for agreement with Palestinian leaders that remain free: either in the PNA or in emigration. And after Abbas announced the date of the referendum, Hamas and Islamic Jihad revoked their signatures.
What lies behind this move is not a disagreement about Israel and the peace process, but a power struggle. So the referendum is unlikely to reconcile different groups, even if people vote in favor of the national accord. Moreover, if the international community does not see that Islamists have tempered their stance, economic aid to Palestinians will be as limited as before.
Perhaps, Abbas has decided to hold the referendum despite everything hoping that Hamas, which positions itself as the voice of the people, will relent, which will be easier to do after the referendum. A high-ranking Fateh functionary, Nabil Shaat, told RIA Novosti that if Palestinians voted in favor of the decision, it might be easier for Hamas to accept the Palestinian-Israeli talks. "They do not agree to it now, but they may gradually come to it," he said.
There are certain nuances, however. At present there are no talks. Even if Hamas recognizes Israel and signs the National Accord Document in the long term, it will satisfy the international community, but not the Israeli politicians currently in power. This means that the state whose creation is supported by over 70% of Palestinians may not appear on the map, at least in the foreseeable future.
Below are two quotations that are very representative of the opinions of the Israeli and Palestinian establishments. As Shaat told RIA Novosti, the Document envisages that Israel should withdraw from the territories occupied after 1967, including East Jerusalem. "This is the minimum Palestinian people can agree to. We can negotiate only on 1-2% of the territory, no more," he said. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, speaking in London, unveiled the following plans concerning evacuation from the West Bank: "We will never agree to withdraw from all the territories, because the 1967 borders are impossible to defend." He said that Israelis planned to withdraw from 90% of the West Bank territory and to negotiate about the remaining 10%. It is no secret that Israel, supported by the United States, intends to keep large settlement blocs on the occupied territory and that the division of Jerusalem is not on the agenda at all.
So the referendum will plant a dream in Palestinian minds that cannot come true any time soon. It is hard to imagine that Israel will agree to divide Jerusalem and withdraw from all the occupied territories. "Unless it happens, we will continue to fight," said Jamila Saidam, deputy of the Palestinian parliament, who is not even a member of Hamas.
Then why hold the referendum? Only to show the world that the majority of Palestinians want peace and are not intent on wiping Israel off the face of the earth? If this tempers the position of countries that have imposed the blockade, it will be something of a result. But what will Palestinians feel, when, after once again demonstrating their democratic choice to the world, they will get neither peace, nor security, nor economic or political stability, nor national accord?
