The Orange coalition has achieved apparent unity, but is still unable to start working. More than three months have passed since the elections but the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) has not elected a speaker, nor endorsed the prime minister. What explains these setbacks?
The answer lies in the status of Ukrainian statehood. A constitutional reform, which brought about a proportionate system of elections and the imperative mandate (if you were elected to the Rada from a party, you should remain in this party), was aimed against total corruption in Ukrainian policy. Previously, the Rada was a big market where the owners of mandates held endless auctions, moving from one corner of the political spectrum to the other.
This trade had little sense - it had nothing to do with the adopted laws or current policy. But for deputies, it meant distribution of positions or feeding troughs. The executive authorities were trying to control a constitutionally vital body, and secure carte blanche for the presidential administration. Politicians motivated by ideology looked like rara avis, and were a laughing stock for down-to-earth statesmen. A huge crowd of constituency lawmakers without any limits and a continuously changing kaleidoscope of microscopic party fragments left no hope for the formation of steady coalitions. For this reason, the transition to a parliamentary-presidential republic designed as a safeguard against authoritarianism brought to the fore the task of streamlining parliament.
Author of the constitutional reform Vladimir Malinkovich believed that the imperative mandate-imposed "serfdom" of party deputies would secure stability of agreements, and curtail the MPs who were prone to change sides. This mechanism is supposed to function in Ukraine until the formation of political parties, which would be guided by the interests of big social groups.
But it is clear that such a process takes time. The Party of Regions, the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, and Our Ukraine, the three major election winners, are a weak union. The difficult birth of the Orange coalition during the presidential campaign was midwifed by its common animosity to the Kuchma regime, and a common striving for power and property. They have never had any common interests within the coalition.
Naturally enough, this generated squabbles in the Yushchenko bloc, and the resignation of the first Tymoshenko-led cabinet. Little has changed since then. No matter what agreements the coalition members may reach, they will not trust each other. Regrettably, Ukraine's political culture is low, and the sides are honoring their words as long as they looking into each other's eyes. As soon as they leave for their cabinets, they start acting in their own interests, taking little notice of the commitments assumed.
Hence today's attempts to violate the Rada's rules of procedure and conduct open package voting. This does not suit the opposition (Viktor Yanukovich), which has every reason to believe that under the rules the Orange parties will find it difficult to nominate their speaker and distribute the committees between their representatives because they keep quarrelling with each other. Indeed, how can Yulia Tymoshenko be confident that Poroshenko, who leads the most influential group in Our Ukraine, will vote secretly for her to become the prime minister if he has been opposing this idea for a year and a half and lobbied a coalition with Yanukovich after the elections to the Rada? How can Poroshenko believe that Tymoshenko's bloc will cast a secret vote for him to become the speaker if it is perfectly obvious that he will oppose her and try to paralyze the work of her government?
These are just some of the many problems facing the Orange coalition. The coalition agreement is not a consensus of different political forces with definite positions but a compromise in the name of power. Under the circumstances, it is much easier to violate the rules and vote openly, under the supervision of the bosses who would use the imperative mandate as a whip if needed. But the opposition is not going to let the Orange coalition continue its dictate, and the tactic of the Orange is becoming that of the White-Blue. By blocking the work of parliament, they are doing what the Orange have done more than once. But today they are acting in line with the law and enjoying massive support of the population.
The nationalist part of the Ukrainian political class, which mobilized the street for protests, has now found itself in the minority - the citizens of Ukraine, who saw in Yushchenko and Tymoshenko an alternative to the rotten and corrupt Kuchma regime, have been demoralized by their inability to rule the country, and lost any desire to support an even weaker government.
To the contrary, the White-Blue are fully aware of the growing activity in the south and east of Ukraine, and are going to transform their political dividends into direct civil action.
This fact gives rise to the hope for the triumph of democracy.
Vyacheslav Igrunov is the director of the International Institute of Humanitarian and Political Studies.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
