Lebanon may become another Iraq

Subscribe

MOSCOW, (Vladimir Akhmedov for RIA Novosti) - Unless fighting between the Israeli army and the Hezbollah radical Shiite movement stops soon, Lebanon may turn into a pocket of terrorism, because extremists will flock to it from Iraq.

This would have an adverse effect on the Middle East and the rest of the world.

The drama on the Lebanese-Israeli border, which began with Hezbollah kidnapping Israeli soldiers, has grown into a military operation unprecedented in scale or significance. For the first time in decades, Arabs are firing missiles at Israeli cities situated far away from the country's northern borders.

Hezbollah has done what the regular Arab armies failed to do during their numerous clashes with Israel - and it has not yet started fighting in earnest, military experts from Arab countries warn.

Moral and factual success has encouraged Hezbollah leaders to change their political tune. In the past, Hezbollah posed as a "people's resistance movement" fighting for the interests of Lebanon, but its leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, said recently that it was fighting for the interests of the Islamic community.

These words, and the recent actions of the Shiite movement, threaten not only Israel but also the rest of the region, because they can change the lineup of forces there.

The success of Hezbollah is hurting the people of Israel and the authority of Arab governments. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said the situation of Arab leaders was very complicated. According to inter-Arab agreements, they should rally to support the victim of an attack.

What can they do? Join the war against Israel? Few of them want to, but their inaction is discrediting them at home. Arabs have generally not expressed their opinion so far, but protest actions with unpredictable consequences are imminent.

Social tensions in the majority of the region's countries, and the growing popularity of opposition forces, may provoke actions against the ruling regimes, which, unlike Hezbollah, have done nothing to protect Arab and Islamic interests.

In view of the energy, transport and geopolitical significance of the Middle East, such actions would affect international political and economic stability. Islamic movements, or rather political movements acting under the green banner of Islam, may form an opposition to the ruling regimes in the Middle East.

As a result, the Mideast authorities, although they are not democratic in the Western sense of the word, may be replaced by regimes with which the West would not be able to talk. A recent example is the victory of the Hamas Islamic resistance movement in the Palestinian parliamentary elections.

The threat of losing power may force the governments of some Arab countries, in particular Syria, to start fighting Israel, even if they do not want to.

In short, the outlook for the Middle East is not optimistic, especially because it is not clear when the military operation there can be stopped. The media cite the Israeli military as saying that a plan to liquidate Hezbollah could be initiated within a fortnight. On the other hand, this could be an unrealistic objective, as Israel is bound to see.

Israel's massive attacks on Lebanese infrastructure have not disabled Hezbollah, which is responding as energetically as it did during the first days of hostilities. Sheikh Nasrallah has warned that there are no "red lines" now that Israel is bombing civilian targets in Lebanon, and that Israel was in for unpleasant surprises, though initially Hezbollah planned to attack only the Israeli military.

According to another version, Hezbollah deliberately provoked Israel because the guerrilla group knew that a similar kidnapping of an Israeli solider by Hamas's militant wing had brought Israeli troops to Gaza.

The general mood in Lebanon is another factor. Israel is increasingly attacking not only Hezbollah bases and offices but civilian targets as well. There have been victims even in Lebanese regions that were not scarred by the long civil war or the previous Israeli invasion.

Therefore, even those Lebanese who were initially outraged by the actions of Hezbollah are becoming embittered by Israel. At the same time, the Shiite movement is viewed as the most effective and socially oriented group in Lebanon, and Sheikh Nasrallah is respected by most Lebanese irrespective of their religious beliefs.

The Lebanese government could do nothing to disarm Hezbollah in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1559 before the Israeli invasion, and it has even fewer chances now. Israel will have to occupy all of Lebanon to attain this goal, but will the government of Ehud Olmert approve?

Vladimir Akhmedov is a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.

Newsfeed
0
To participate in the discussion
log in or register
loader
Chats
Заголовок открываемого материала