What does Tehran hope for?

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - For almost two months, Iran has been studying a six-nation proposal offering it significant benefits in the nuclear sphere in exchange for suspending nuclear research and uranium enrichment. However, it has said neither "yes" nor "no."

Tehran has recently emphasized that it will agree to resume the talks but without any preconditions, i.e. without halting nuclear enrichment. This position makes pointless the proposals of the Six (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), which are dealing with the Iranian nuclear program.

In its Resolution No. 1696 of July 31, the UN Security Council demanded that Iran suspend all work on uranium enrichment before August 31 as a sine qua non for the resumption of the talks on its nuclear program. Having flatly rejected the resolution, Tehran dismissed this demand as unacceptable, saying that the very adoption of the resolution gives it grounds to stop reviewing the package of the Six.

What stands behind Tehran's current demarche? What does it hope for? Do Iran's political elite believe that the Six will again fail to agree on further measures?

Indeed, the Six were not united in adopting the resolution. Its initial draft provided for automatic and immediate sanctions if Tehran failed to suspend nuclear enrichment by the deadline. Russia and China opposed "automatic sanctions" and had insisted from the very start that Resolution No. 1696 should be binding, but no more than that. This is why the other members of the Six met them halfway and agreed that if Iran failed to comply with the demands of the world community, they would discuss sanctions in early September. Much will now depend on the positions of Moscow and Beijing.

Tehran has obviously overreacted by saying that the resolution has no legal foundation and will not produce any constructive results. This is a feeble argument. The resolution rests on the IAEA's demand that Iran should suspend all work on uranium enrichment until some questionable aspects of its effort are cleared up.

The IAEA made this demand in its recent report after inspecting Iranian nuclear facilities, and the Six used this report as a foundation for their proposals. The majority of experts believe that for all the drawbacks, these proposals create a valid foundation for resuming talks and reaching a compromise.

This is the premise that Moscow and Beijing are working from, and so far they have managed to prove that a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue should be given priority. But this position is becoming increasingly vulnerable. This is particularly evident when Tehran starts talking about its potential responses to the "anti-Iranian resolution," which range from withdrawing from the talks and the Non-Proliferation Treaty altogether to the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East.

But this time Tehran's skills at conducting talks on the verge of collapse may do it a disservice. It is risking a serious blunder if it continues trying the patience of the Six and the rest of the world community. Characteristically, Italy, which is a leader in cooperation with Iran and has never been on its list of enemies, has also urged Tehran to accept the six-nation demand to suspend nuclear enrichment. This is what Rome told Tehran: "Nobody calls into doubt Iran's right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. All that the world community wants is to be convinced that uranium is indeed being enriched for such purposes."

Iran's hope that the conflict in Lebanon will for the time being eclipse its nuclear problem may go up in smoke. A number of experts believe that Tehran's attempt to exploit this situation may backfire and compel the UN Security Council to toughen its position in favor of sanctions.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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