The minister said the shortage of power-generating capacities would slow down the growth of GDP in general and be an obstacle to the development of the most promising regions. But Russian power engineers are not idle. In early August RAO UES of Russia endorsed a five-year investment program for the development of the energy industry with a price tag of more than two trillion rubles.
Does Russia have regions suffering from energy shortages? RAO UES of Russia prefers the sterile phrase "regions of maximum load," or a "shortage of energy during the highest demand." Last winter the record for the highest demand (set in 1990) was exceeded in 14 regions. RAO UES of Russia managers insist that there is no shortage of energy, but admit that the equipment of regional systems is becoming less reliable, and the risk of accidents has become higher.
Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Urals Federal District have the biggest problems. The latter produces oil and gas, and is therefore a strategically important area. The Urals and Trans-Urals Arctic regions desperately need to quickly develop their power industry. Both the local authorities and RAO UES of Russia agree that in a year or two this crucial district may be hit by a serious crisis.
The first deputy chairman of the government of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Area, Vyacheslav Novitsky, said that despite the reconstruction and development of energy-producing capacities in the area, they would fail to meet the demand of the oil and gas industry by 2008.
In the Sverdlovsk Region the population and industry will suffer from real energy shortages already in 2007 if old energy stations are not reconstructed and new ones are not built.
Last winter energy supplies were repeatedly limited, power temporarily switched off, and high-risk alerts announced in the Urals Federal District and some other areas of the country. Energy shortages were avoided because the system was working at peak capacity, and when the demand reached its maximum, energy was transferred to four regions, one territory and two autonomous areas from other parts of the country.
There are several reasons behind this situation in the Urals. Firstly, the energy equipment, transformers, and power supply networks are extremely worn out, with depreciation of between 65% and almost 100%. The wear and tear on energy facilities in the Kurgansk Region has reached a point where it has become a source of concern for the local prosecutor's office. By comparison, the average depreciation in all Russian industries was 50.5% in 2004.
Secondly, the rapid growth of industry, especially of the oil and gas sector, has generated an increase in the demand for energy. In the last ten years, that demand has been growing faster than energy capacities. In the Tyumen Region, for example, energy consumption was up by 10% in the first six months of this year compared with the same period in 2005. However, RAO UES of Russia CEO Anatoly Chubais put the average increase in national energy consumption at 2.2%.
Insufficient power capacities have affected the Urals in the last few years. According to official data, the shortfall was particularly acute last winter, when it reached 4,400 megawatt hours. The Tyumen Region, including the Khanty Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenetsk autonomous areas, requires the building and modernization of 3,700 megawatts of energy capacities, while the Sverdlovsk Region needs 3,000 megawatts of additional capacities, or 30% of what it currently has.
There are many reasons for the Urals electric disease, but only one doctor: RAO UES of Russia. Out of the one trillion rubles ($37.27 billion) earmarked for the construction of energy-generation facilities on a national scale, 211 billion rubles ($7.86 billion) will be channeled into creating an additional 3,700 megawatts of capacity in the Urals. Another 100 billion rubles ($3.73 billion) will be spent on the power industry of the Trans-Urals Artic region.
Funds will go towards the construction of the following facilities: one gas-steam unit (800 megawatts) at the Nizhnevartovsk Hydropower Plant, two 100-megawatt gas-steam units at the Urengoi Hydropower Plant, one gas-steam energy unit (800 megawatts) at the Surgut Hydropower Plant 2, an electric power plant in Tarko-Sale (600 megawatts), and a gas-steam unit (190 megawatts) at the Tyumen Thermal Power Plant 1.
In addition, the oil companies Surgutneftegaz, Gazpromneft and Yuganskneftegaz are planning to build 16 turbine-powered electric plants at their own expense with an aggregate capacity of over 850 megawatts.
There are plans to build more than 3,600 km of power transmission lines and 78 switching substations with an aggregate transformer capacity of more than 7,900 MVA in the Tyumen Region before 2011.
The Sverdlovsk Region will get its share as well. In the near future it will receive 60 billion rubles ($2.24 billion) for the construction of 39 major power facilities, including five powerful energy units and a thermal power plant. These include a gas-steam unit (410 megawatts) for the Sredneuralskaya Hydropower Plant. The Sverdlovsk Region will also get 21 new substations and about 500 km of additional power transmission lines.
These ambitious and expensive plans suggest an obvious question: where will these trillions and billions come from? RAO UES of Russia explained that it is going to attract investment in energy generation with an enhanced share issue, and will also use its own funds and loans from energy companies. In particular, it is planning to raise about 40% of the funds from additional share issues of wholesale and regional energy-generating companies. Some 35% will come from energy tariffs and about 14% from loans.
Speaking about ways of preventing an energy crisis in the Urals, I should mention the plan to complete construction of the fourth 800-megawatt power plant (BN-800) at the Beloyarsk Nuclear Power Plant in the Sverdlovsk Region. The government has allocated 57 billion rubles ($2.12 billion) for the project. When it is operational, the Urals will have enough energy for the medium-term.
To sum up, there is every reason to hope that the Urals energy industry will receive first aid in time.
