The population of Russia is dwindling. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the number of Russians fell from 148.3 million in 1992 to 143.5 million by early 2005. In the same period, the country received about 6 million immigrants.
Demographers from the UN and the Russian Statistics Service, along with Russian and foreign researchers, agree that the country's population will continue to decline at a fast pace.
According to a moderate scenario provided by the Statistics Service, it will fall to 134 million by 2026, and then only if the birth rate and the average life span start growing, and the annual inflow of immigrants rises to 400,000. Without immigrants, the economically active part of the population may lose nearly 20 million, which will be a hard blow.
The decline in population is not hindering the country's economic growth now, because the economically active groups are being replenished with immigrants. The balance between pensioners and young people replacing them has been positive.
A rapid reduction will begin in 2007, and the most difficult time will be from 2010 to 2018, when natural depletion in the working population groups will reach 1.2-1.4 million a year. In all, attrition will total 18-19 million in 2005-2025, which is nearly 30% of the economically active population (67 million).
Such a big hole cannot be quickly mended by technological progress. No country has so far ensured economic growth (which means higher wages and pensions) with a declining number of workers. The most Germany and Japan have done is stabilize their figures.
The Russian government has approved an energetic policy of supporting families in the hope of encouraging Russians to have more children. Even if it succeeds, the economic effect on the labor market will be felt no sooner than 20 years from now. The number of children who will come of age and seek jobs in the next 20 years cannot grow.
Therefore, Russia needs immigrants to keep its economy growing.
But this is an outlook for the future. Why invite Chinese now, when there are many jobless Russians? Surveys show that Russia's jobless are not sufficiently mobile. They want jobs to come to them, not to go where the jobs are. They do not want to work in logging, construction or agriculture. Attracting immigrants to these "problem" sectors in Siberia, where the weather conditions are difficult, is therefore a justified and timely measure.
But still, why Chinese? There is a program for attracting workers from the former Soviet states, but experts have calculated that they can provide no more than 2-4 million Russian speakers, which is not enough if Russia's population will lose 18 million.
Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kygyzes, Ukrainians and Moldovans are readily hired in Russia, but the migration potential of the population of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is not enough to make up for the growing shortage of manpower in Russia.
The conclusion is that immigrants from the CIS cannot ensure Russia's economic development. We need the Chinese.
We can also invite Koreans, Vietnamese, Filipinos, Indians and other foreigners, but China is a close neighbor, and many Chinese, especially from the northern provinces, quickly get used to Russian weather and traditions and are diligent workers.
Chinese readily come to Russia because the population of the Chinese border provinces is many times bigger than that of the Russian border regions, and there are more jobless in China than there are people in Russia. No wonder that China welcomes any chance to get rid of surplus labor.
But this does not constitute organized demographic expansionism. Some politicians in Russia regularly speak about the threat of the Chinese taking over the Russian Far East, but the age of empires is over, and Siberia will remain Russian.
According to the latest population census, there are only 35,000 Chinese in Russia, which is hardly a demographic deluge. Taken together with temporary residents, including illegal immigrants, the total number of Chinese in Russia is probably about half a million.
It is also not true that Russians have become aggressive towards immigrants. A massive inflow of aliens, especially people from different cultures, is not welcome in any country, and Russia is no exception.
Russia will have to fight for immigrants, because competition for migrant labor promises to be fierce in the first half of the 21st century. Russia's toughest rivals will be the European Union and the United States.
Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya is Director of the Russian Center for Migration Studies.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
