Tehran's refusal to stop all uranium-enrichment operations by August 31, as demanded by Resolution 1696 of the UN Security Council, is hardly surprising. Moreover, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said August 30 that European countries should not impose sanctions against his country because such measures would not dissuade the people of Iran from struggling for the inspirational goal of national pride, namely, the mastering of all the required nuclear technologies.
It appears that U.S., Russian, British, French, Chinese and German deputy foreign ministers will meet early next week to draft a UN Security Council resolution and to decide on a subsequent strategy for dealing with Tehran.
They will have to decide whether that resolution should provide for sanctions or whether it should once again call on Tehran to heed IAEA recommendations.
It may seem paradoxical, but Security Council members remain divided on the Iranian nuclear program. Russia and China oppose any sanctions, whereas the United States will not allow Iran to implement its nuclear program.
Moscow and Beijing still prefer a wait-and-see approach. Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaosing said the Iranian nuclear problem should be solved through diplomatic efforts. Beijing, which insists that Iran stop its nuclear projects, nonetheless opposes any tough sanctions in the event of Tehran's refusal.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said that "it would be at least premature and inappropriate" to discuss sanctions against Iran today. "Anyway, we will continue to advocate a political and diplomatic settlement, as well as complete and lasting compliance with the non-proliferation regime," Ivanov said.
The United States promises to establish an anti-Iranian coalition if Russia and China oppose a Security Council resolution stipulating sanctions against Tehran.
There are more questions than answers in this situation. It is unclear how one can simultaneously advocate a "political and diplomatic solution" and ensure "lasting compliance" with the non-proliferation regime. And what if it turns out that Iran aims to develop nuclear weapons?
Moreover, what countries will join the U.S.-backed anti-Iranian coalition, which may declare bilateral sanctions against the country? Europe mostly keeps silent, making soothing statements to the Iranian side instead.
What ultimate goal does the United States have in insisting on immediate sanctions against Iran?
U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (Republican), head of the House Intelligence Committee, said Russia and China do not plan to call Iran to account and will prevent the United States from imposing economic sanctions against Tehran. Hoekstra complained that President George W. Bush would find it hard to authorize a military strike against Iran if the sanctions fail.
Hoekstra is obviously right in saying that economic sanctions would not work if they turn out to be a sieve with large holes in it through which Russia, China and probably some U.S. allies would provide economic assistance to Iran.
On the other hand, these sanctions seem unlikely as long as Washington considers them to be a first step towards passing a subsequent Security Council resolution that would call for "action by air, sea or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security" in line with Article 42 of the UN Charter. However, Russia and China, as well as some U.S. allies would oppose such sanctions.
Iran, which obviously profits from the Big Six's failure to agree on possible sanctions, continues to drive a wedge between its members. It is no coincidence that Iranian delegations linked with the national nuclear program visited Moscow, Beijing and Tokyo in late August. Moreover, Tehran has just announced a tender for the construction of two nuclear power units and invited Western companies to bid. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and other Iranian officials have now toned down their rhetoric.
Tehran apparently understands that "the members of the United Nations agree to accept and carry out the decisions of the Security Council" in accordance with Article 25 of the UN Charter. The Russian Foreign Ministry, for one, has told Tehran about the need to do this.
The Big Six must therefore reach a consensus and decide whether they should punish Iran or leave it alone.
