What the Russian papers say

Subscribe

MOSCOW, September 11 (RIA Novosti) Putin acknowledges Russia's nuclear decline/ CIS countries oppose Russians' return home/ Bridgestone to build St. Petersburg tire plant/ Oil production in Russia to grow 4% a year/ Alrosa one step closer to federal control

(RIA Novosti does not accept responsibility for the articles in the press)

Gazeta

President acknowledges Russia's nuclear decline - expert

Vladimir Putin's comments that Russia would have to give up its nuclear superpower status to focus on developing its power network to modernize its economy were a highlight of his meeting Saturday with Western experts who are members of the Valdai Discussion Club. Experts saw a confident economic pragmatist in the Russian leader. At the same time, for all the epoch-making implications of the president's message, his nearly official reneging on nuclear ambitions could also be seen as an admission of the country's nuclear decline.
Obviously such a serious remark as renouncing a desire to be a "superpower" targeted the West alone. The statement may have provoked questions for the Russian population: What about a nuclear shield and defending the nation's interests? Can an energy lever play the same role as the bomb?
Military experts told the paper that giving up the status of a "superpower with warheads" was a forced future choice based on an objective assessment of the nuclear potential. "Putin in effect forecast a natural decline of Russia's nuclear potential, decommissioning of some of its silo- and sea-based strategic missile systems, and the lack of any replacement," said General (Ret) Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies. "The old systems are living out their days, especially such missiles as the Voyevoda (Satan) and Topol. No new equally credible systems are being developed. When the Americans are reassured that Russia is not able to launch a counter strike, they will dictate their terms in economics and global politics as nuclear monopoly."
General Viktor Yesin, former chief of the Main Headquarters of Strategic Missile Forces, said the United States missile defense system would not be in a position to weaken the effect of Russian strategic forces until 2020. He did not forecast beyond.

Kommersant

Some CIS countries oppose Russians' return home

The implementation of a federal program launched in September to secure the return of ethnic Russians to their homeland has encountered problems: most regions are unprepared for the return of their nationals and cannot provide them with promised privileges. Experts told the paper that the program may be disrupted, and a source in the Kremlin said the program was facing opposition from the authorities in some CIS countries.
The president signed the program in June 2006. The program for 2007-2012 aims to provide regions with skilled personnel from the CIS and, among other things, propaganda: Russia made it clear to its nationals living in the former Soviet republics that they were still remembered and welcome.
By September 1, 2006, 12 regions should have filed applications specifying the number of foreigners they are ready to receive. However, these applications are either unprepared or give a minimal number of migrants the regions could receive next year.
Experts told the paper the program was doomed to fail. "Instead of solving personnel problems in the regions, the government has created new ones: the regions cannot afford to accommodate such a large number of people," said Konstantin Zatulin, director of the Institute for CIS Studies. "That is way the regions are distancing themselves from the program."
A Kremlin source said Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan had so far responded to the initiative. Kyrgyzstan alone should send 600,000 people as part of the program, and 55,000 Russians are already in the line to leave that country. The source said Ukraine and Kazakhstan strongly opposed the migration program. "They made it clear to us through government channels that Ukraine would resent letting Russians go," the source said.
"Russia has the right to invite its nationals back home. Besides, the Ukrainian authorities have been careless about the Russian language, culture and traditions in the past 15 years," said Leonid Grach, a senior member of Ukraine's parliament. "But the departure of 10-12 million Russians from Ukraine will be a disaster for the country for scientific, technological and transnational reasons, so it should be prevented."

Vedomosti

Bridgestone to build tire factory in St. Petersburg

Several foreign tire companies have joined major carmakers in Russia. Japan's Bridgestone may establish its factory in Russia after Michelin of France and Finland's Nokian Tyres.
A source close to the St. Petersburg city administration said the Japanese company had reserved a 10-hectare plot in the Kamenka industrial zone, near the site of the Nissan plant, currently under construction.
In 2005, Nokian Tyres launched production in the Leningrad Region's Vsevolozhsky district. Andrei Pantyukhov, general director of Nokian Tyres Russia, said the factory was sited on a 30-hectare plot. The enterprise is to produce about 1.9 million tires this year and Pantyukhov said capacity would increase to 4 million tires by 2008 and eventually reach 8 million.
In July 2004, Michelin became the first to enter the Russian market by opening a factory near Moscow. Natalia Makeyeva, the company's PR chief, said the enterprise had attained annual design capacity of 2.1 million tires.
Experts are unsurprised over the interest of global tire producers in the Russian market. Maxim Ivanov, an analyst with Tsentrinvest Group brokerage, said producers focused on growing automobile markets and entered Russia after foreign carmakers opted to localize production here. "In this sense, construction of a Bridgestone factory next to Nissan's enterprise is hardly a coincidence," Ivanov told the paper.
Yelena Sakhnova, an analyst with the investment bank Deutsche UFG, said the share of foreign tire producers who have set up production in Russia was continuing to increase. The analyst said they accounted for 6% of national tire production in 2004 and this share would reach about 19% in 2006. Russian tire sales fell from 64% in 2000 to 47% of the market this year.
Tsentrinvest Group's Ivanov said Bridgestone would follow the example of Michelin and Nokian Tyres and at first produce about a million ties a year with initial investment to reach $30 million.

Biznes

Oil production in Russia to grow 4% a year - analysts

Analysts forecast that Russia's oil output will reach 500-530 million metric tons per year (10.7 million bbl/d) by 2008, with the average growth rate across the industry in 2006-2008 amounting to 4%.
The struggle for industry leadership will unfold between front-runner LUKoil and Rosneft, which, upon finally absorbing Yukos, will be able to control 25% of the market. However, neither the outsiders nor leaders will post remarkable financials: with oil prices forecast at $50 per barrel, earnings and net profits of the leading companies will be much lower than in 2005.
Troika Dialog forecasts that the average rate of production growth in the sector in 2006-2008 will be 4%. A model suggested by Uralsib Bank yields about the same figures. "In the medium term, when new fields are developed, we will reach a growth rate of just over 4% a year," said Uralsib analyst Alex Kormshchikov.
Rosneft plans, recently announced by company president Sergei Bogdanchikov, clash with the general picture. He said, even factoring out Yukos assets, Rosneft is going to corner 25-27% of the market by stepping up output to 104 million metric tons per year (2.09 million bbl/d) a year. Models built by analysts credit Rosneft with 17% and, including Yukos's 5% stake, with 22%.
Russneft is likely to post the best growth in the branch, however. According to a Troika Dialog model, its production in 2008 will rise to 17.17 million metric tons per year (345,750 bbl/d) tons. Company head Mikhail Gutseriyev also mentioned other plans: to reach 25 million metric tons per year (503,425 bbl/d) tons. Analysts are not ruling out this possibility.
"The sector is consolidating, and if they continue buying assets, such figures are possible. There are many small oil companies that can be purchased," said Renaissance Capital analyst Roman Yelagin.
But analysts are not sure if the owners of medium-sized companies will be willing to part with them. "It is unprofitable to sell their businesses, because their production rates are much higher than the average for the industry, and oil prices are still climbing. Quite small companies with one or two wells can be targeted for absorption," said Aton analyst Artyom Konchin.

Gazeta.ru

Alrosa one step closer to federal control

Alrosa, Russia's largest diamond producer, has won a case in a Siberian court, fending off back tax claims for 2002 totaling 496 million rubles ($18.5 million). If it wins another lawsuit with the Supreme Arbitration Court in October, there will be no obstacles left in the way of the state taking control.
A source in Alrosa, however, said it was too early to celebrate. "The other party will certainly try to contest the ruling in a higher court," he said without enthusiasm.
Talk of a final victory can begin only after the company wins the other lawsuit, filed by the Federal Property Agency, which wants to restore the government's ownership rights to the property on the former production association Yakutalmaz. The respondent in this case is the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and Alrosa is the third party. Only after winning this case will the company be able to forget about litigation and focus on production. The second hearing in the Supreme Arbitration Court is scheduled for October 6. The parties are expected to reach an amicable agreement by that time.
The Siberian court's ruling is not a major step forward for the company, experts told the paper. Pavel Molchanov, analyst with the Finam brokerage, said, "The company has simply reduced the risks of additional expenses related to payment of back taxes and fines."
The tax bill was not big, so the news is "only slightly positive," said Igor Vasilyev of Financial Bridge.
Alexei Pavlov, head of analysis with the Vika investment group, said the back tax and property claims, as well as constantly changing schemes of bringing the company under federal control, were all links of the same chain. "The state has never been closer to its goal," he said. "Very soon bargaining around Alrosa [and there is something worth bargaining for given Alrosa pays more than 10 billion rubles to the regional budget] will end successfully, and assets will fall under state control."

Newsfeed
0
To participate in the discussion
log in or register
loader
Chats
Заголовок открываемого материала