Hungary: end of goulash paradise, welcome to Budapest syndrome

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Sergey Zhirnikhin) - A television scene from Hungary - the building of the national TV is on fire, thousands of people are moving in chaos to the parliamentary square. They are chanting: "Resign, stop cheating, hail to 1956!"

Cars are ablaze; the armed-to-the-teeth police are dispersing the demonstrators. Who are they - skinheads, vandals, pogrom-makers? They are resisting fiercely, and there are wounded on both sides; mounted police; tear gas, sticks, and shields. Others are armed with bricks, and Molotov cocktails. Budapest University, which is my Alma Mater, is shut down like many other colleges - students are two volatile during any crisis.

The Pope is praying for peace and tranquility in Hungary. I cannot even believe what I'm seeing. I have studied and worked here for 20 years, and have never seen anything similar. It was a corner of stability in Eastern Europe, a "goulash paradise" during socialist construction. Without any social upheavals Hungary gradually and almost routinely turned into a quite European parliamentary democracy with a very decent standard of living for the entire post-socialist space. What happened with the genetic restraint of the Hungarians, which rested on their inalienable self-esteem, and failed them only when their destiny was at stake?

What have compelled the Hungarians to go into the streets now, on the very eve of the 50th anniversary of the 1956 revolution? And who are they? Do they stand for the legitimate resignation of the prime minister, whom the opposition denounces for impudence, or are they the criminal gang, who has sensed an opportunity for a gain?

Initially, many observers have confidently attributed peaceful demonstrations, riots and pogroms to the leak of the closed speech made by Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany to his Socialist Party associates. An informal Socialist leader, and a legal millionaire, he admitted that the government was just pretending to rule the country, while the Cabinet of Ministers had to cheat the nation round the clock about the real state of affairs in the economy, which was saved from total collapse only by the God's providence, a favorable global economic situation, and a thousand tricks.

Others see the main reason for the unrest in the Cabinet's announcement of a sharp rise in prices, and tariffs for gas and electricity. Economists point justifiably to an extremely high level of the already chronic deficit of the state budget, while sociologists are registering growing pessimism. Only one in four Hungarians is hoping to live better in the future.

Some of the opinions expressed in public discussions, the media, and the Internet seem to me quite radical. Some say that the appearance of the prime minister's secret speech in the media was his own inspired leak because he was trying to avoid an economic collapse, and get a free hand in carrying out unpopular reforms, which would tighten the belts of many social strata.

The proponents of the second radical version claim that the main rival of the Socialists, the leader of the Alliance of Young Democrats, and ex Prime Minister Viktor Orban is going all-out to take revenge for his loss to the Socialists and their partners in the government coalition at the latest parliamentary elections. His goal is the resignation of Ferenc Gyurcsany, who is popular with the Socialists and considerable part of the population, a government crisis, and establishment of the transitional non-party cabinet of ministers.

The third version is a peculiar mix of the first two. It was an inspired leak, and Viktor Orban is ready to go beyond the constitutional framework for his political ambitions, and the criminals are ready to catch fish in troubled waters.

My friends and co-students from Budapest University are now on different sides of the barricades. Some of them occupy high-ranking positions, which allow them to influence the actions of the main political rivals during the current events. Having finally got through to some of them on the phone, I heard almost endless requests to call later, and received some comments only on conditions of anonymity.

A high-ranking leader of the ruling Socialist Party said that rightwing radicals have inspired the riots in Budapest with tacit, if not open connivance of the Young Democrats, and involvement of criminal elements, and that the crisis will soon be overcome. Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany is very popular with the party and will retain his post. No one and nothing can change constitutionally the results of the elections and change the alignment of forces in parliament. "You say those who seized the TV building wanted to read an address to the nation? Do you know that one of their demands was to return the Fradi soccer club (as popular as the Moscow Spartak in Russia) into the higher league? What about the robbed and mucked up TV snack bar? What about stolen or spoilt office equipment? The police know them by name. They are popular figures within the criminal community. Are they bearers of social protest, political fighters? The head of state is a man of great courage. Let me remind you of his words: 'I don't know how this tape appeared and what for, but I do not regret what I said, and am not ashamed of it.' The gist of some phrases may change substantially if they are taken out of the context of a very emotional speech pronounced by a man in an expressive language before his associates and supporters. Last, but not the least, do you know a government, which would tell its nation the whole truth, no matter how awful it might be? Gyurcsany is calling on us to break the vicious circle. Despite all obstacles, we will carry out the announced program of economic stabilization," my interlocutor said.

The opposition is of contrary opinion. A high ranker from the Alliance of Young Democrats, who preferred to remain anonymous, told me, "The Prime Minister, who has cheated the nation all the way, has no moral right to retain his position by all divine and human laws. The same concerns his cabinet. Elections to the local bodies of government will take place in October, and if the Socialists lose them, they will have to give way to a transitional government to include experts without markedly expressed party affiliation. Subsequent parliamentary elections will put everything right. There is no reason to present tens of thousands of people in the streets of Budapest as cutthroats and criminals. They are simply demanding the resignation of the government of liars and hypocrites. The Alliance of Young Democrats has never backed the actions of radical elements. But social upheavals bring forth criminals as well. But this does not and will not determine the situation in Hungary," he said.

The events in Budapest continue unfolding. I recalled what the first post-socialist Prime Minister Jozef Antall told me years ago: "I wish Hungary never got front-paged by the world press." His wish did not come true.

One commentator said with good reason that a government's failure to honor its election commitments may be called 'the Budapest syndrome' in other countries. Following all these events Hungary may lose its 'goulash paradise,' a definition without irony. This is a pity.

There is an old Hungarian saying "let's pour pure water into the glass, and we'll feel better." Will this be the case? I don't know.

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