Features & Opinion
What the Russian papers say
MOSCOW, September 28 (RIA Novosti)
Gazprom to buy all gas produced by Sakhalin PSA projects/ Govt. refuses to control gas prices for industry/ Govt. wants Gazprom to buy Russian stake in TNK-BP/ Rosneft searches for money to buy Yukos assets/ Russian police sympathize with nationalists
(RIA Novosti does not accept responsibility for the articles in the press)
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Gazprom to buy all gas produced by Sakhalin PSA projects
The operators of the Sakhalin 1 and Sakhalin 2 PSA projects, now experiencing problems with official Russian agencies, may receive additional opportunities for bargaining with the state. This could mean they will be able to settle some of the disputes.
A spokesman for energy giant Gazprom said Wednesday his company was ready to buy all gas produced by PSA project operators to ensure quicker and more comprehensive gas supplies for the entire Far Eastern region.
Gazprom will have trouble obtaining over a trillion cubic meters of Sakhalin gas, because both PSA projects are protected by a "grandfather clause," which forbids imposing worse conditions on their development.
Officials and experts suggested a compromise may either renounce preferential PSA terms for the development of Sakhalin deposits or a deal may allow Russian companies to receive larger stakes in both projects.
Most gas-sale contracts have been signed, and most volumes and deadlines coordinated for Sakhalin 2. Operator Sakhalin Energy said PSA supplies did not include all gas from the project and Russia was entitled to part of the gas as payments.
But this will happen only in several years' time later when the project starts to make money. Previous statements inferred that Sakhalin Energy had no surplus gas, an impression reinforced by the announcement that gas supplies to Japan and South Korea under previous contracts would begin in 2008 rather than in November 2007.
Gazprom may receive more gas from Sakhalin 1 because the main supply contracts have not been inked. Dilyara Sydykova, spokesperson for a Sakhalin 1 operator, ExxonMobil, said the company was continuing to examine sale options. She said ExxonMobil was selling gas to the Khabarovsk Territory and analyzing opportunities for the sale of surplus gas.
Kommersant
Government refuses to control gas prices for industry
From 2007, the Russian government may refuse to control gas prices for industrial enterprises. The sudden concession to Russian energy giant Gazprom was made after the last difference on gas supplies abroad was settled yesterday, as Russia relieved itself of the commitment to supply natural gas to Ukraine, switching its neighbor's economy to gas from Central Asia.
At a meeting of energy ministers from the Black Sea Economic Cooperation member countries in Sochi Wednesday, Russian Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said "a market of long-term contracts at freely moving prices will soon be established in Russia, which may involve up to 100 billion cubic meters of gas a year." More than 90% of industrial consumers will have to buy gas at freely moving prices. Low inflexible prices will be maintained for the population and housing and public utilities services, and the prices will be "moderately raised" for energy producers. Industrial enterprises will buy gas at the level of "the EU minus transport," which will cost the country's central regions up to $180 per a 1,000 cubic meters against the current $50. There are plans to launch the reform in 2007.
A source in Renova-Orgsintez, a subsidiary of Renova Group focusing on investment in the chemicals sector, said gas accounts for 40%-80% of the cost of Russian chemicals, and if market prices were introduced for gas, the bulk of enterprises in the sphere would suffer losses. A large metallurgical company assessed the share of gas at 8%-14% and said it did not expect anything good from the reform.
The gas monopoly also made the last step toward determining its export policy Wednesday. CEO Alexei Miller and Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko signed a contract for the delivery of 55 billion cubic meters of Central Asian gas a year in 2007-2009. The contract between Gazpromexport, Gazprom's export arm, trading company Rosukrenergo and Ukraine's national oil and gas company Naftogaz for "Central Asian gas supplies in the fourth quarter of 2006" maintains the price at $95 per 1,000 cubic meters. With a purchase price of $100 this spells direct losses for Gazprom, which, however, will be compensated by Rosukrenergo profits through "long-term cooperation". A source at the negotiations said this may involve "less than $400 million," which Ukraine will pay in cash or with assets in 2007.
Vremya Novostei
Government wants Gazprom to buy Russian stake in TNK-BP
Sources close to TNK-BP said Russian energy giant Gazprom and the Kremlin have made an informal decision to buy the stake in the Anglo-Russian oil venture held by its Russian shareholders: Alfa Group, owned by Mikhail Fridman and German Khan, Leonard Blavatnik's Access Industries and Viktor Vekselberg's Renova. The shareholders are not thought to be against the idea, but that price will have to be right.
TNK-BP is worth much more than Sibneft Oil Company, which Gazprom bought a year ago. Russian President Vladimir Putin said then that the deal should be conducted at a market price, and the gas monopoly paid $13.7 billion for a 72% stake in the oil company. Brokerage analysts believe 50% in the Anglo-Russian venture may cost $20-$30 billion.
Gazprom will clearly seek a lower price. Experts say the Natural Resources Ministry's criticism of the Kovykta project, one of the key assets of TNK-BP, will be Gazprom's trump card in negotiations. And a potential Putin-backed revocation of the license slashes the value of the Russian shareholders' stake.
Vekselberg, who is responsible for gas projects within TNK-BP and who has so far failed to implement the Kovykta project due to Gazprom's refusal to export gas, could sell Renova's stake on the cheap to the gas monopoly, a move which is being strongly opposed by his partners. And this is the sticking point in the negotiations.
Fridman said last year that if the Natural Resources Ministry wished to revoke the Kovykta license, it would have done it long ago. Obviously, he did not believe such a scenario was possible back then. Today's situation suggests that it is time to make a decision, even though under the merger agreement with BP the parties may not change their stakes in the company before late next year.
Vedomosti
Rosneft searches for money to buy Yukos assets
The assets of bankrupt Yukos Oil Company have not been put up for sale, but state-controlled Rosneft is looking for money to buy its producing and refining units. Experts told the paper they predicted a tough battle between Rosneft and energy giant Gazprom for the pieces of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's oil empire.
Yukos's bankruptcy receiver Eduard Rebgun is to announce today a tender for the valuator of the company's assets before putting them up for sale. Last summer, Rebgun valuated its biggest production units - Samaraneftegaz and Tomskneft - at $3.28 billion each. Yukos also has many refineries, including in Achinsk, Kuibyshev, Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran and Angarsk, which Rebgun values at $4.5 billion all together.
But they will be sold at a higher price, because Rosneft will have to fight for these assets with Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz, said Natalia Milchakova, an analyst with the Otkrytie brokerage. She said Surgutneftegaz had made public its interest in the Angarsk refinery, and Gazprom wants to take over Tomskneft.
"As a result, the price of assets will soar, which may benefit the minority shareholders of Yukos," said Maxim Shein, chief analyst with Broker Credit Service. "They will have a chance to keep something after the sell-off."
The state-controlled companies will most probably agree to divide the Yukos assets to maintain the balance of interests, with Rosneft taking over the bulk of them, said Steven Dashevsky, chief analyst at the Aton brokerage.
Milchakova said in this case the price of Rosneft's shares would grow by a third to $11 and its capitalization after consolidation to $116 billion.
Rosneft will have to borrow money for the acquisition of Yukos assets. As of late March, the state-run company's debt totaled $11.6 billion. But even if it doubles, the resulting sum would not be critical for Rosneft, Dashevsky said.
Part of the money paid for Yukos assets will later return to Rosneft, which is Yukos's creditor, said Yelena Anankina, an oil and gas analyst with rating agency Standard & Poor's.
Rosneft can take short-term loans for the acquisition, which it will repay as soon as it gets the money Yukos owes it, said Shein.
Novye Izvestia
Russian police sympathize with nationalists
The Russian Interior Ministry made public Wednesday data about crimes against foreigners, according to which the number of such offenses grew 84% from 2000 to 2005.
Deputy Minister Colonel General Andrei Novikov said more effective action should be taken to counter extremists. But experts said nobody could fight aggressive nationalism because more and more policemen sympathized with the extremists.
Experts said "skinheads" felt at home on the streets, whereas the police did not regard them as potential criminals.
"In many cases the police who detained the skinheads for beating up immigrants from the Caucasus promised to release them as soon as the victim filed a complaint," said Svetlana Gannushkina, head of the Civil Assistance Committee.
Journalist Nikolai Svanidze, a member of the Public Chamber, a body set up to act as a bridge between society and the authorities, said nationalist sentiments were widespread in the police. "There are many policemen with prejudices that are widespread in society," he said. "But unlike the rest of society, they have the levers of power at their disposal, which is dangerous."
Nationalists openly say the police are on their side.
"They have a specific attitude to us," said Alexander Belov, leader of the Movement Against Illegal Immigration. "They come up and say blushing that they have to check our documents. In fact, they support us but have to fulfill strange orders."
Some policemen express a desire to join the movement.
"This is logical," Belov said. "We have different people in the movement, many of them former policemen, and there are policemen who maintain contacts with us."
Lieutenant-Colonel Andrei Golovatyuk (Interior), a deputy of the lower house of Russia's parliament from the Liberal Democratic Party, told the paper the government had failed to establish a position on such organizations as the Movement Against Illegal Immigration. "The police will clamp down on them, if a decision is made. But they will not act without a political decision."

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