The CIS and Baltic media are extensively covering the arrest of the Russian officers on espionage charges and the subsequent deterioration in Russian-Georgian relations.
ESTONIA
The media are blaming Russia for the political crisis and for trying to portray Georgia as a state which is not ready to enter NATO. "Russia is continuously supporting breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia by issuing Russian passports to South Ossetians, and backing the November referendum on separation from Georgia. The circumstances surrounding the explosion of the Russia-Georgia gas pipeline early this year have not yet been fully cleared up. But Russia's response to Georgia's actions was truly hysterical - the day before yesterday Russia announced its decision to suspend troop withdrawal from Georgia, recalled its ambassador, and put its Georgia-deployed troops on high alert... Russia is very irritated by the fact that the state, which it used to include into its sphere of influence, has declared independence. Russia has taken the same measures towards Georgia as to Estonia 10 years ago." (Postimees, Estonia, October 2).
The media inform the readers about the aggravation of Russia's relations with Belarus as well. "Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has invited Russian journalists working in Belarus and told them that nothing good would come of the Russian-Belarusian union. He said, Belarus is not going to give away the shares of Beltransgas (gas transportation network) for the ridiculous $300 million. Lukashenko is convinced that the Americans will pay $2 billion for them, and when Belarus is gone, Putin will lose his last friend." (SLYkhtulekht, October 2).
LATVIA
The press writes that Tbilisi is trying to provoke Moscow into inadequate actions, precipitate its entry into NATO, and neutralize Russia's influence in the Caucasus. "Recently, Russian-Georgian relations... have been described as the Cold War. The main reason is Georgia's orientation towards the West and stubborn reluctance of its authorities to follow in the wake of Russian policy. Tbilisi has long demanded that Russia withdraw its army from Georgian territory and stop supporting Abkhazian and South Ossetian separatists." (Diena, September 29).
"The Kremlin is displeased with Tbilisi's intention to join the alliance. Relations between Tbilisi and Moscow worsened recently when NATO made a decision to start talks with Georgia, which are the first step to accession." (Diena, September 30).
The media emphasize that Georgia will not be able to improve its relations with Russia as long as Mikhail Saakashvili is in office. "Russia is not content with the changes in Georgia's foreign policy and is doing all it can for other people to come to power." (Diena, October 2). Now, even if Georgia makes a volte face in its anti-Russian foreign policy, normal relations may be restored only after the Georgian leader leaves." (Telegraf, October 3).
LITHUANIA
Experts believe that Russia and Georgia have never been so close to hostilities. "Russia and Georgia are preparing for war. Tbilisi has reported that Russia is sending military hardware to South Ossetia, while the unrecognized republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are accusing Georgia of concentrating troops next to the conflict zone. Moscow has made the first step on the road to the formal declaration of war - the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi has reported that almost all diplomats have left for Moscow." (Lietuvos zinios, October 2).
The media are making negative comments about the information reported by Vilija Aleknaite-Abramikene, the leader of the Seimas group on inter-parliamentary links, to the effect that free Russian television channels are producing enormous influence on Lithuanian emigres in Ireland and the rest of Europe. "Lithuanian emigres see the world with the Kremlin's eyes. They do not have an opportunity to watch Lithuanian television, and have to settle for the Russian-controlled channels. It is particularly alarming that the Kremlin is shaping the mentality of children in emigre families." (Lietuvos rytas, September 27). "If we do not take any measures, Vladimir Putin - the best friend of the working people all over the world - will be the most popular politician among foreigners of Lithuanian background... The Seimas should pass a decision on broadcasting at least one program of Lithuanian national television to Europe and America, where the majority of Lithuanian emigres live." (Sugardas.It, September 27).
UKRAINE
Regardless of political orientation, the absolute majority of experts are warning the Ukrainian authorities against involvement in the settlement of the Russian-Georgian conflict. If Kiev acts as a third party, it may upset the fragile balance in its relations with Russia. At the same time, the media are showing respect for the position of Tbilisi, which was not afraid to confront Moscow.
"Moscow's extremely aggressive reaction to this incident... shows what Kiev might expect if it continues its course towards joining NATO.... The resolve of the Georgian leaders demonstrate that it is possible to speak with Russia on equal terms." (Podrobnosti, September 29).
The press writes that by imposing sanctions on Tbilisi, the Kremlin has evinced its inability to settle disputes diplomatically, and found itself in a political deadlock. "After the officers' release, Russia has no other goals than the overthrow of the Saakashvili regime." (Glavred, October 3).
The media have found suspicious Russia's readiness to accept the forthcoming losses of a joint venture which is supplying Ukraine with gas. Gazprom bought gas... from Turkmenbashi at $100 for 1,000 cubic meters. Strange as it may seem, but until the end of the year RosUkrEnergo will continue selling gas to Ukraine at the price of $95. We are either missing something, or are totally in the dark." (Zerkalo nedeli, September 30 - October 6).
"Keeping the price low ... is a kind of bribe for the Yanukovich government." (Glavred, September 29). "The independent gas traders will be gradually ousted from the market." (ProUA, October 2). "The Russians... are not embarrassed to make hard-to-reject proposals...A gas price discount will have to be paid for - with metallurgical plants, if not with the gas pipe." (Ekspert-Ukraina, October 2).
MOLDOVA
Political scientists view the development of the Russian-Georgian conflict as the collapse of Russia's imperial ambitions. "Russia is undergoing a period when its neo-imperial ambitions are running against Georgia's striving to assert itself as a truly independent state. Georgia has every right to defend its interests and national security, and to take legal action against Russian citizens who encroach on its sovereignty... Russia will have to accept the new reality. One example is that despite Moscow's hysterical outcries, Putin ordered not to stop Russian troop withdrawal from Georgia." (Flux, October 3).
ARMENIA
The media are harshly criticizing the news that all Armenian energy assets already owned by Russian companies will be transferred to Gazprom, Russian gas monopoly, by December of this year. "Armenia's major energy assets are becoming part of Gazprom..." Armenia is now the only country in the region that produces more electricity than it consumes. So, if Russia controls the country's energy, it will become a key energy exporter in the region... It sounds absurd but Russia collected its debts only from Armenia, which is considered Russia's strategic partner. Moscow made no demands on the other indebted countries. Armenia is also the only country to have exchanged one of its largest energy enterprises, the fifth unit of the Razdanskaya hydropower plant, for lower prices on Russia's supplied gas. Actually, we gave our energy to Moscow without getting anything in return." (Aikakan Zhamanak, September 27.)
GEORGIA
The media are expressing full support for its government in the "espionage scandal." The opposition reportedly urged parties to unite against Russia, their "common enemy." Moscow's reaction to the arrest of Russian officers is described as an uncivilized and rude attempt to threaten Tbilisi. "The world can see now that Russia is helpless, and the myth about its powerful intelligence services is nothing but fiction. This myth went down in history. Russia was especially hurt to receive such a blow from Georgia." (Civil.Ge, September 30.)
The Georgian press is much less critical of the government's moves. "Following the arrest of Russian officers, the Georgian-Russian conflict was escalated artificially... The transfer of spies is conducted secretly in the global practice to prevent tensions between countries... The government should show more responsibility and far-sightedness, and care more about its people." (News-Georgia, October 2.)
The media reacted calmly to Russia's sanctions against Georgia. Experts claim that Russia's ally, Armenia, will suffer much more from the isolation. "It is impossible to impose any more sanctions. They had already forbidden everything they could long ago... There were only three or four flights ... a week [from Moscow], we handle more flights to Europe, Ukraine and other destinations... The significance of this attempt at pressure should not be overestimated." (Civil.Ge, October 3.)
"The suspension of communications with Russia will hurt Georgia less than Armenia;" "Even if Russia resolves to make such a move [economic blockade], it will be a big mistake that will show to the rest of the world that Russia's investment climate is unstable and unfavorable." (Georgia Online, October 3.)
AZERBAIJAN
The press has come to a conclusion that Moscow is loosing to Tbilisi on political and information field. "Georgia's statehood has acquired new quality quite unexpected for the Kremlin and its analysts. As a surprise to Putin's Russia, the fundamentally centralized Georgian government proved capable of neutralizing the network of political and other agents of Russian influence. In addition, in his battle with the Kremlin Mikhail Saakashvili has so far taken into account the bitter experience of his predecessors. He plays the all-or-nothing game when there is room for maneuvering, and he retreats when 'the pot gets overheated'. This time, despite the seemingly 'pre-war' developments, Saakashvili made things uncomfortable for the clumsy Russian bear. Tbilisi looks too conclusive in its accusations, and the Kremlin clique is highly unlikely to launch an military offensive against a sovereign state on the eve of the 2008 succession to the throne." (Zerkalo, September 29.)
At the same time, the media set the alarm bells ringing over a potential closure of markets in Moscow and other Russian cities, which employ tens of thousands of Azerbaijanis. "The Interior Ministry, the Tax and Finance Ministry and the sanitary service have launched large-scale inspections at Moscow markets. As a result, at least seven markets are expected to close soon, leaving some 52,000 Azerbaijanis unemployed... In all, 22 marketplaces will be closed in Moscow before the end of the year, and another 80 in 2007. Considering that Azerbaijanis account for about 85.4% of the sellers, it is easy to count how many Azerbaijanis will lose their jobs." (Azadliq, September 29.)
KAZAKHSTAN
The media are giving extensive coverage to the visit of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to the United States. It is emphasized that the cooperation between the U.S. and Kazakhstan goes against Russia's interests. "Today Washington has few friends, especially among Islamic and oil producing countries, so every such country matters... The investment climate and product-sharing agreements with Western companies are much more liberal in Kazakhstan than in neighboring Russia, whose government launched an offensive against the Yukos oil company back in 2003 and is now imposing limitations on investment projects operated by Exxon, Shell and other oil and gas companies on Sakhalin... So far, U.S.-Kazakh contacts have been exemplary. But as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization becomes stronger, with China and Russia playing key roles in it, new challenges are emanating from the north and from the east. In addition, Moscow is promoting a single economic space and the CIS Collective Security Treaty, a Warsaw pact-like military alliance." (Nomad, September 28.)
UZBEKISTAN
The attempt by the GUAM member countries, with U.S. support, to oust Russian peacekeepers from the Georgian-South Ossetian and Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zones is in the spotlight. "The foreign ministers of GUAM member states - Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova - have made a decision to replace Russian peacekeepers with their police forces in the conflict zones. Now the pro-Western quartet is trying to make the UN adopt an anti-Russian resolution. The four foreign ministers met at the 61st session of the UN General Assembly. Though Russia is a guarantor of settling conflicts in Transdnestr, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorny Karabakh, no Russian officials were invited to the meeting. Instead, David J. Kramer, Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs at the U.S. State Department, attended the meeting." ("XXI Àñð", September 28.)
