India was the first to claim that it had conducted a nuclear test because it knew that Pakistan was preparing for a similar test. Pakistan said the same with regard to India.
It does not matter now what they said or did, because we cannot turn back the clock. India and Pakistan have the bomb, and North Korea may acquire it within a few years.
The experience of Pakistan, which is not a very rich country, showed that a considerable amount of time passes between the first test and the delivery of the first few nuclear warheads to the army.
North Korea is poorer than Pakistan, and so it is impossible to forecast how long it will take it to produce warheads for the army. Its recent nuclear tests were not very successful, but it will definitely create the bomb sooner or later.
Worse still, Iran and several other countries, possibly Japan and South Korea, may also build the bomb in response to their neighbor's actions.
Current international law stipulates few punishments for a country that dares to create nuclear weapons. The non-proliferation regime provides for a voluntary commitment by signatories not to transfer nuclear technology to other countries, which are forbidden to seek such technology if they have signed the non-proliferation treaty.
India has not signed it, and North Korea has withdrawn its signature. They cannot therefore be officially punished for their fully independent nuclear weapons research. Every country may decide what sanctions it will impose on the offending country, but only within the framework of bilateral relations. Such sanctions may include cessation of trade or diplomatic relations. The use of bilateral or multilateral military force against such countries is inadmissible without the decision of the UN Security Council.
The Security Council discussed North Korea's nuclear tests when Pyongyang announced its intention to conduct them. Last weekend, the council coordinated a draft statement urging it to give up its nuclear test plans and return to the six-country disarmament talks.
However, the statement did not refer to Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which covers "measures not involving the use of armed force". Should it be considered that such measures "have proved to be inadequate," it may be decided to use armed force.
The United States' proposal to include the reference in the statement was rejected, which is logical. All possible non-military measures against North Korea have been tried, including by Pyongyang itself, which has completely isolated itself from the international community.
The next conceivable step would be the suspension of humanitarian food aid, or a transport blockade by South Korea, Russia and China. But these measures would not be reasonable, since they would precipitate a humanitarian catastrophe for innocent Koreans.
Other suggestions, such as the U.S.'s idea of using warships to patrol the North Korean coast, would be useless.
Over the past few years, diplomats have been looking for ways to close the legal loophole in international law that Pyongyang has used. Traditionally, a carrot and stick policy has been suggested, which involves convincing or forcing nuclear aspirants to terminate their weapons programs, for example by accusing them of an imaginary sin.
In my view, the international community has brandished the stick once too often. The war against Iraq has shown North Korea and other countries that having the bomb, even in international isolation, is safer than negotiating with those who hold the stick. Even the six-country talks, where all the regional powers pledged to provide additional guarantees to U.S. promises to Pyongyang, have not allayed North Korean fears.
In short, the world should not have brandished the stick and should have offered sweeter carrots. This is the conclusion to be drawn from years of international efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem.
Now everyone, including the U.S., South Korea, Japan, Russia and China, is angry. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who usually controls his emotions very well, said at a meeting with government members: "Russia roundly condemns the test in North Korea, which has inflicted great damage on the non-proliferation process."
Chinese diplomats have said Pyongyang's action was "shameless," a word they have not used with regard to anyone for years.
Harsh actions are possible now, including military ones, if only to show that Pyongyang's challenge will not go unanswered. It will be much more difficult to prevent such actions now, which is why the official spokesman of the Russian Foreign Ministry has demanded that North Korea immediately return to the non-proliferation regime and has called on all countries concerned to show restraint.
In this situation, the global powers should revise their non-proliferation policy of the past few years. Russia warned them, both privately and publicly, that putting pressure on Korea or Iran would not have the desired effect. It also reminded the world that some countries voluntarily abandoned their nuclear status, referring to South Africa, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Russia and the United States successfully took joint action to convince these countries to make that decision. And they did not use the stick to attain their objective.
It takes time to revise foreign policy. For now, it seems that the Korean Peninsula will not be denuclearized.
