MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Kislyakov) - November and December are traditional months for summing up the past year and looking ahead.
A politician gages his political weight and assesses his chances in future elections. A businessman makes a close study of quotations and thinks about how to expand the market for his products. Both follow the same script, where "popularity" and "demand" are the key performers.
The space industry, too, takes a look at where it has been before putting together plans for the future. Criteria that used to be important only for the political and business establishment are now becoming increasingly meaningful for space travel. The Wall Street Journal has released data on receipts posted last year by public and private space projects.
The statistics make fascinating reading, and they suggest it is the right time to wonder how Russia, a leading world power, is going to meet the challenges of the new, pragmatic space era.
Now we know that last year's space revenues totaled about $180 billion. According to the Space Foundation, an international organization, the sum has turned out to be even higher than the expected $89 billion. But is $180 billion too much or too little? It is certainly not too little. The figure amounts to just under one-fifth of Russia's expected total GDP for this year.
The most interesting thing, however, is not the money itself, but where it originated. We read that commercial satellites accounted for $110 billion, or the lion's share of the total revenues of $180 billion. We must remember that this total is comprised of the aggregate revenue from both launching and using spacecraft.
The information suggests a simple and clear conclusion: stationary communications and global navigation satellites are today and will remain tomorrow the most profitable business in space.
In the field of launch vehicles, especially those with commercial payloads, Russia's place here is assured, and its prospects are almost rosy. Why "almost"? Two factors enter into the calculation. Despite leading the world in number of launches, Russia earns less from commercial lift-offs than Europe. In other words, the volume of revenues does not correspond to the number of launches made. Last year, Europe's five Ariane launches brought it $490 million, while Russia's eight successful orbitings yielded it only $350 million.
Though this discrepancy could be avoided in the future with more flexible negotiations, the second factor - the ageing of the fleet of carrier rockets - is more serious. Even bearing in mind the heavily upgraded Soyuz family of rockets and its fitness for launches from the European equatorial space center at Courou, tomorrow's customers will look down on Russian equipment incorporating 40- to 50-year-old design solutions on a market flush with European, Indian and Chinese products.
Large-scale use of communications and navigation satellites, including on a paying basis, is the key priority of Russia's space program for 2006-2015. What is more, the Glonass global satellite navigation system has already turned into a nationwide project, and there is an impressive amount of information on it available.
The Russian leadership deserves credit for understanding that satellite technologies in the modern world are at the core of a developed nation's military and economic might. There is no need to discuss the benefits of using such systems for military purposes.
It is more difficult, however, to assess the willingness of civilian users, or those able to pay for satellite information, to cough up rent for satellite telephones and receivers like the GPS Navstar.
It is not just that Russia has no receivers or transmitters able to use Glonass satellites and that the prospects of manufacturing them are too distant, but that one cannot be sure whether there is a market for this service. Many people are asking a simple question: Do we need it? Or rather, will satellite navigation become a generally useful thing bringing in a lot of money, or an upmarket gimmick subsidized by the public budget?
One will admittedly find it hard to imagine a driver from Ryazan or Smolensk using a satellite whose accuracy is measured in centimeters to check his itinerary on a road still as rough as it was during Napoleon's retreat. Add to that the hefty monthly fee for such a service, and the chances look slim indeed.
Here is one indicative figure. In spite of the long, successful history of Russia's domestic satellite communication and broadcasting system, its volume is just approaching one percent of Russia's total telecoms market, which is already worth tens of billions of dollars.
There's no denying that a great ship seeks deep waters, but an opportunity and a possibility are two different things. If you ignore this fact, you may find yourself stranded in the company of characters from a Fellini movie, casting longing glances at a liner melting in the fog.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
