Iran sanctions backfire on Russia

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - Last Wednesday, Iran's parliament approved the general provisions of a bill giving the government a free hand regarding the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), up to and including withdrawal from the NPT and termination of IAEA membership.

This was Tehran's response to the December 23 UN Security Council resolution authorizing sanctions against it.

The resolution has backfired on Russia because the Security Council approved the Russian version of the resolution under apparent pressure from Moscow. This may turn into a new headache for the Kremlin, largely owing to Tehran's moves.

The Security Council approved Resolution 1737 after nearly four months of consultations and debates in the Group of Six countries: the United States, Britain, Germany, China, Russia and France. It requires Iran to suspend all of its enrichment-related and reprocessing activities.

The resolution stipulates that "all States shall take the necessary measures to prevent the supply, sale or transfer directly or indirectly (...) of all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology that could contribute to Iran's enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy-water activities, or to the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems."

It also provides that "all States shall freeze the funds, other financial assets and economic resources (...) that are owned or controlled" by 11 Iranian companies and several individuals if Iran does not stop its uranium-enrichment activities.

The Security Council has also called on its member states to monitor Iranian officials involved in the nuclear program who enter their countries.

At the insistence of Russia and China, the request that 12 Iranian officials involved in nuclear and ballistic missile programs be prohibited from freely moving outside Iran was removed from the resolution.

Russia also insisted that the accounts of Iranian companies abroad should be frozen not immediately but only if Iran continued to ignore the demands of the international community. Russia also ensured the adoption of an amendment stipulating that Resolution 1737 cannot be regarded as the basis for using military force against Iran.

In fact, Russia has helped Iran avoid harsh sanctions.

The Kremlin has always said it would prevent the immediate imposition of sanctions aimed solely at punishing Iran. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, there should be a possibility to ease sanctions or make them harsher depending on Iran's actions. Moscow still hopes that Iran will agree to resume talks.

Vitaly Churkin, the Russian representative in the UN, said Russia had done its best but failed to prevent sanctions.

Unfortunately, this has created nothing but more problems for Russia.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed the UN resolution as "a piece of torn paper ... by which they aim to scare Iranians." Such a reaction was to be expected, as the Iranian leader likes to shock the public. Indeed, what does he care for "a piece of paper" that the UN Security Council unanimously approved as a document binding on all nations?

But still, Tehran's reaction surprises me. The Iranian leaders were aware of Moscow's stance on the issue. In fact, Tehran praised Moscow's constructive efforts during the four months the six nations debated possible sanctions.

Russia had a right to expect that Tehran would understand the essence of the resolution. The Kremlin prevented the adoption of harsh sanctions against Iran and by so doing assumed a degree of responsibility for Tehran's subsequent actions in the hope that it would at least resume talks and cooperate with the IAEA in a more positive mood. As for the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Moscow never thought Iran would dare withdraw from it.

In his article in The Sunday Times on December 17, British journalist Mark Franchetti quoted Ilan Berman, an expert on Iran at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, as having said that the American view was: "If doing a deal with [Russia on] Bushehr is the only way to get an agreement on sanctions, then so be it. However, if the Iranians do go nuclear, it will be a large component in the story of how they succeeded."

Moscow has worked with capricious partners, such as North Korea, Iran and the United States, before. On the other hand, Tehran most likely knows that sanctions against it cannot be kept "mild" forever.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.

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