The closer the election day, the better we see that Turkmenistan will not sharply veer off the course set by the late Saparmurat Niyazov. But this doesn't mean that no attempts will be made.
Turkmenistan is attracting many players with its rich hydrocarbon resources. Some are eyeing them as customers, while others want them as an instrument of pressure on the customers. The former want to preserve the status quo in the gas trade, while the latter are advocating the diversification of gas export and the construction of alternative pipelines, a Trans-Caspian pipeline to Europe and pipelines to Pakistan (via Uzbekistan and Afghanistan) and to China.
The struggle for access to hydrocarbon reserves in Central Asia and the South Caucasus is an element of security or instability. It is the defining reason behind economic troubles, pipeline wars, and even "color" revolutions.
The European Commission has called for revising the European energy policy, and is studying Central Asia for new sources of its energy security. A growing demand for Central Asian resources will change the tone of arguments in the European Commission and other international organizations, as well as individual countries.
The moderate sanctions imposed on Uzbekistan after the Andijan tragedy can be lifted, as Europeans easily forego "moral values" when economic interests are at stake. This is the only explanation for the import of Gulf oil to Europe regardless of human rights or any other moral issues.
Europe is pinning its hopes on the Nabucco pipeline via Turkey. The sides had seemed unable to come to terms on that major project. After Moscow refused to ratify the EU's Energy Charter, the change of leadership in Turkmenistan seems like a good chance for diversifying energy routes to Europe.
The EU cannot remain indifferent to the outcome of the presidential campaign in Turkmenistan, which will end on February 11. But major changes there are unlikely, because the EU has no levers of influence on the Turkmen authorities. The Turkmen opposition, which is on the payroll of European foundations and the United States, is impotent to change anything either, and rumors of a "cotton" or "flour" revolution appear groundless.
Acting President Berdymukhamedov and the other presidential candidate, first deputy head of the Dashoguz Region Amanyaz Atadzhykov, have called for maintaining neutrality. But political continuity does not mean that nothing will change in the republic after the death of Turkmenbashi. Turkmenistan's relations with neighboring countries are strained, which is not good for regional security.
In this situation, the cautious policy of Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan seems justified. These two countries do not want to rock the boat during the presidential race in Turkmenistan by making loud statements or taking action.
But other countries concerned are not keeping silent. The U.S. administration has announced readiness to cooperate with the new Turkmen authorities if the latter meet Washington halfway. Americans are mostly concerned with the export variants the new Turkmen authorities may choose.
At the same time, Iran does not want to be surrounded by pro-American countries.
According to a plan formulated by Professor S. Frederick Starr, director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute (CACI) at Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. should snatch Central Asian and South Caucasian states from the influence of Russia and China. Afghanistan should be "saved" from the destabilizing influence of neighboring Iran and Pakistan and connected to a more stable and pro-Western Central Asian region.
The professor's ultimate goal is to speedily integrate Central Asia into global structures controlled by Western countries. In fact, this is why the Broader Central Asia plan was devised. The U.S. knows very well that such big players as Russia, China and India will not sit on their hands.
Russia's policy in Central Asia looks more consistent and pragmatic. The Kremlin is not forcing "color revolutions" there and has proposed a form of security cooperation that meets the interests of all regional states. At the same time, it has announced firmly that it will cooperate only with legitimate authorities.
Presidential elections in Turkmenistan are scheduled to take place in less than a month, and many people are waiting impatiently for their results. Geopolitical patriarchs used to say, "Whoever controls the Mediterranean, controls the world." To paraphrase them, we can now say, "Whoever controls oil and gas pipelines, can become a new center of global power."
The struggle for control over energy resources in Central Asia will be at the top of the global agenda in the next decade, and security in that region will depend on the lineup of the main geopolitical players.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
