The conference will be held against the backdrop of burned-out buildings in Lebanon and reports of those killed and wounded in clashes between political parties. After a sit-in that lasted nearly two months, the opposition has started acting. It encouraged an anti-government strike to block approaches to the airport on January 23, and the army did its best to stop opposing groups from killing each other.
It did not succeed: three people were killed and dozens wounded. The opposition and government forces are accusing each other of opening fire first. It is bad enough that people have died and been injured, but it is even worse that the Lebanese have crossed the line between political demonstrations and armed confrontation.
There have been isolated clashes between the opposing parties before, and there have been victims. But this time the unrest raged throughout the country for a whole day, killing and maiming more people.
The result of that tragic day in Lebanon was a decision by the opposition to halt all protest actions. However, this has not lifted the general mood, because the opposition leaders said they will resort to more effective measures if the government fails to learn its lesson from the clashes and continues to disregard the opposition's claim to power.
The opposition demands broader representation in the government and parliamentary elections in the near future. The ruling coalition is prepared to give the opposition a third of ministerial posts, but it is not prepared to accept "a third-plus-one-voice" formula, which would allow the opposition to block cabinet decisions.
The situation in Lebanon will not normalize until the opposition receives its share of power, but the governing coalition is not yet prepared to cede it.
Will external forces promote reconciliation in Lebanon or foster strife? According to the Arab media, the latest conflict has been settled thanks to the mediation of France and Saudi Arabia.
Without their intervention, the Paris-3 conference would have been doomed. However, is this the right time to discuss material assistance to Lebanon, including investment and loans, when the country is on the verge of civil war? Investing in it now would not be reasonable because it is never a good idea to invest in a country with a permanent political crisis.
Business activity in Beirut has been regularly coming to a standstill over the past two years, with life in the city center paralyzed by demonstrations, or by unprecedented security measures on days when the Lebanese political forces try to find a compromise. Tourism, which had become one of Lebanon's major sources of revenue, is on the decline.
Lebanon will not solve its problems without external assistance. It is still paying back the loans it received for reconstruction after the 1975-1990 civil war. Life was only beginning to get better when the country was shaken by a new series of political assassinations and a power struggle provoked by the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. This pushed it back to the edge of civil war, and the Lebanese economy and infrastructure were further damaged by last summer's war with Israel.
The West and the Gulf countries are prepared to help Lebanon, but on what terms? Shortly before the Paris conference, the United States and France hinted that assistance would be granted only if the Lebanese government adopted a reform program. The trouble is that the opposition rejects this program, and not only because it has complaints about it.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the opposition Hizbollah movement, said the reform plan would decide the future of Lebanon for years ahead, and therefore it must not be approved by a government that represents the interests of less than half of the Lebanese people.
In other words, Lebanon needs external assistance, but which forces in Lebanon will receive it?
The Arab and Western media wrote before the Paris conference that if the latter succeeds, it would give a major boost to the government of Fouad Siniora. If the West grants the money on the condition that Lebanon's current leaders remain in power, this will seal the country's economic and political future.
The opposition will not permit this, which is pushing the country into a dead-end: it cannot live without foreign investment, but the money will bring with it foreign interference in Lebanon's domestic policy and lead to sectarian strife.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Saltanov, who will lead the Russian delegation at the Paris conference on Lebanon, has said that the government's programs, however good, as well as foreign assistance, will be useless without national accord.
Much will depend on the political statements made in Paris. Will the conference participants agree to support the Lebanese government or help Lebanon as a whole? What will prevail, the will to seek a compromise, or the political preferences of the donor countries?
One way or another, the situation in Lebanon and around it does not inspire optimism, which makes one feel sorry for the Lebanese.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
