MOSCOW, February 8 (RIA Novosti) Putin's "successors" run neck and neck /Belarusian president blackmailing Russia - expert/Moscow not ready to make economic concessions to EurAsEc/LUKoil to produce oil in Colombia/Will Russians become extinct?

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Gazeta.ru

Putin's "successors" run neck and neck

First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov are running neck and neck in the as yet undeclared race for president, and political analysts cannot say which of them will win.
Both will participate in the 2008 presidential elections, and experts say neither will lose - the winner will become president, while the runner-up will become prime minister.
Dmitry Badovsky, head of the special programs section at the Research Institute of Social Systems, said: "Public discussion of the presidential candidates provides a balanced view of them. When one receives a favorable report or political opportunity to improve his image, the other soon gets comparable support.
"That is further proof that uncertainty over the choice of successor will be maintained until the last possible moment. Moreover, chances are growing that they will form a presidential-prime ministerial alliance."
Alexei Makarkin, deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, said: "Both candidates are playing their parts very convincingly. Ivanov has positioned himself as a tough, maybe even harsh politician who has a negative attitude to Western influences. Medvedev has a congenial image as a social manager. Judging by their growing ratings, they are playing their roles well.
"There cannot be two presidents, but we have a man who will choose the winner - President Vladimir Putin. The candidate who is not chosen for the top post will receive compensation in the form of influence, such as the post of prime minister.
"The next president will definitely be weaker than Putin. In that situation, the prime minister might play a bigger role, with the interests of both the president and the prime minister taken into account in a system of checks and balances," Makarkin said.

Vedomosti

Belarusian president blackmailing Russia - expert

In an interview with a Western news agency Tuesday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that Russia has inflicted $5 billion in damages on Belarus and promised to press for reimbursement.
Moscow will have to pay for energy transit and defense services, he said. He even said that Minsk could turn to the West. Experts, however, told the paper they do not believe him. He is simply going to great lengths to make the Kremlin freeze oil and gas prices, they said.
The Belarusian leader calculated that the hike in energy prices will cost his country $5 billion annually, or 10% of GDP. However, the Belarusian Economic Ministry forecasts that GDP will reach 90.7-92.8 trillion Belarusian rubles ($41.7-42.7 billion) this year.
Lukashenko's claims against Russia have also surged - two weeks ago he estimated damages at $3.5 billion.
Yaroslav Romanchuk, head of the Minsk-based Mises Research Institute, said that Lukashenko exaggerated the figure deliberately in order to reinforce his bargaining position with Moscow.
The expert estimated Belarus' losses at $1.7-2 billion. Alexander Chubrik of the Belarusian Institute of Privatization and Management offered a similar estimate.
Belarus' unilateral orientation toward Moscow was a mistake, Lukashenko said, announcing a possible turn to the West.
However, he is still loyal to the idea of a Union State of Russia and Belarus and is willing to give up any claims against Russia as soon as Moscow abandons its own.
That is the centerpiece of the interview, said Nikolai Cherginets, head of the Committee for International Affairs and Defense of the upper house of the Belarusian parliament.
The president did not say anything about reviewing the current terms of oil and gas deliveries, he said. He just wants Moscow to not raise prices further.
"Belarus wants to draw the line under the issue and move toward a Union State," Cherginets said.
Alexander Fadeyev, head of the Belarusian department of the Institute for CIS Studies, said that Lukashenko was trying to blackmail Russia into returning to the 2006 scenario.
He does not offer measured criticism and underestimates the Russian authorities' determination, so the trade war will inevitably grow, he said.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Moscow not ready to make economic concessions to EurAsEc

On Wednesday, the government published a list of goods that can be re-exported by other countries from the EurAsEc. However, the move was more decorative than substantive.
Buffalo hides look particularly exotic on the list of goods from whose export Russia's partners in the EurAsEc are supposed to be profiting.
But the majority of the goods listed are either of no interest to the allied countries, or else their re-export already falls under bilateral agreements with Russia.
Experts believe that, in theory, EurAsEc members could substantially profit from the resale of some goods on the list, such as oil, gas and petrochemicals.
"The issue would be relevant to Belarus, which, according to various estimates, used to earn some $4 billion a year from the resale of petrochemicals obtained from Russian oil and gas," said an analyst on the oil and gas market.
"However, after Moscow and Minsk fixed oil tariffs a month ago, no member of the Eurasian five [Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan] is dependent on the re-export of Russian goods," he said.
"Kazakhstan has enough of its own oil and gas," said Alexander Razuvayev, chief analyst at the Megatrustoil brokerage. He said the decision reminded him of recent resolutions on labor migrants, which are "half sensible, half uncouth."
Analysts believe that the existence of the EurAsEc should be considered from a political angle, as preferences for its members are so vague that experts find it hard to name them.
"For Russia, this is an opportunity for integration and expansion in the region, including through the penetration of Russian businesses on the markets of allied countries," Razuvayev said.

Vremya Novostei

LUKoil to produce oil in Colombia

LUKoil Overseas, a 100% subsidiary of Russia's largest oil company LUKoil, has discovered prospective oil reserves in the Medina structure of the Condor exploration block in Colombia. The oil produced there will likely be delivered to North American clients.
According to LUKoil Overseas, the project will be commercially profitable despite the deposit's small reserves and Colombia's political instability.
The Condor block is located in the foothills of the Andes, at an altitude of 1,128 meters. A vertical well drilled into the dome of the Medina structure is more than 4.5 kilometers (2.8 miles) deep. The block's reserves amount to more than 100 million barrels (some 14.3 million metric tons) of oil.
The Condor project is being implemented by LUKoil Overseas (70%) and Colombia's Ecopetrol national oil company (30%).
"There is considerable oil demand in the region, and so everyone welcomed the discovery of one more deposit there. We will have no problems marketing the output," the Russian company said.
State-run oil company Rosneft, which has tried working in Colombia, stopped the development of the Suroriente field in 2004 because of guerrilla fighting, although oil was already being pumped there.
The Condor project will not greatly increase LUKoil's production, but will have a positive influence on the company's image.
"The deposit's reserves make up only 0.5% of LUKoil's total reserves," said Andrei Fyodorov, an analyst with Alfa Bank. "But the implementation of that project in difficult geographic conditions will confirm the company's ability to implement technically challenging projects and work in trouble spots."
The project will help LUKoil strengthen its foothold on the American oil market, where it owns a network of filling stations. The company may try to get a share in an American oil refinery, for example, one that belongs to LUKoil's major shareholder, ConocoPhillips.
"That would give LUKoil one more chance to establish a vertical production system on the American market," Fyodorov said.

Kommersant

Will Russians become extinct?

World population is expected to reach nine billion people by 2050, according to the new UN report entitled World Demographic Trends.
The rate of population growth will drop by half, to about 30 million a year. However, Russia will not take part in that growth - its population will drop by 20% by that time, researchers forecast, and that figure could double if Russian authorities continue pursuing inefficient demographic policies.
Russian experts say that apart from the global trend toward a population decrease, Russia now faces factors that other countries do not.
"Before 1970, the Soviet Union moved abreast with other countries, but then the West began making serious investment in preventive medicine," said Anatoly Antonov, head of the sociology and demography chair of the sociology department of Moscow State University.
"Russian medicine is still at its wartime level." Olga Antonova, deputy head of the demography department of the Federal Service for State Statistics, said, "The number of deaths from traumas, murders, accidents and alcohol poisoning in Russia comes second after cardiovascular diseases and amounts to 300,000 annually."
Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the demographic problem in May 2006 in his address to the parliament.
He announced a new demographic policy based on the encouragement of immigration, an increase in the birth rate through subsidies for families, and a decrease of the death rate through tough control over alcohol sales.
Experts, however, say that this is not enough.
"There will only be a slight surge in the birth rate in the next three or four years, and then it will be as it was in the past," Antonova said.
"If we do not encourage the birth of three to four children [in a family] by providing tax relief for young families, Russia's population can drop by 40-50 million by 2050. If we simultaneously encourage immigration, by 2080, Russia's population will be 60 million, 60% of whom will be foreigners and their offspring," she said.