This is a repetition of a drama that played out two years ago, but it is still unclear who has written it.
There is no evidence yet that Syria is behind the terrorist attacks that took place on the eve of the second anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Neither is it clear whether any evidence of this will appear. Nobody has proved that Damascus was behind Hariri's murder despite Lebanese accusations. Two years ago, the indignant Lebanese managed to get the Syrian troops out of their country. Now they want sanctions against Syria.
In the past two years, the situation has changed. Hariri's assassination and Syrian withdrawal have split Lebanese society. Since then, every new act of terror has worsened the disagreements and led to stronger mutual accusations. Political discord has now paralyzed the Lebanese government. The latest terrorist attack has prevented the resumption of talks on a compromise between the opposition and the ruling majority under the aegis of the Arab League.
The ruling coalition's new charges against Syria are not likely to facilitate compromise. Damascus is a tacit participant in all Lebanese domestic negotiations. As recent events show, the future of not only Lebanon but also Syria is at stake.
Domestic Lebanese disagreements are not likely to be settled until Damascus and Washington establish normal relations. Let's recall that Syria and Iran support the opposition, whereas the United States and France back the government. It is no accident that anti-Syrian statements in Lebanon are so consonant with American rhetoric.
This situation, as well as Lebanon's ethnic and religious mosaic, naturally suggests a comparison with the events in Iraq. Moreover, the Lebanese fought a 15-year-long civil war and are permanently worried about the start of a new one. The world community and the Lebanese themselves should do everything possible to prevent bloodshed.
I would like to draw your attention to two points.
The first one deals with the Vatican's statement on the recent terrorist attacks in Lebanon. The Vatican's secretary of state, His Eminency Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, said that the explosions in buses near Beirut were aimed at Christians. He proceeded from the premise that the attack took place in a predominantly Christian area of Lebanon. Probably, the explosions were designed to exacerbate religious strife in Lebanon and drive a wedge between the opposition, which consists of the Shiite Hezbollah, and the Free Patriotic Movement, led by a Christian, Gen. Michel Aoun. However, it is dangerous to focus attention on religious motives behind terrorist attacks. It is enough to recall the consequences of this in Iraq. It is possible to resolve political differences, but it is much more difficult to deal with religious strife.
The Lebanese themselves are doing all they can to take the religious aspect out of the conflict. This is why the heads of Lebanon's religious communities protested together against terror after the latest explosions. Lebanon's top Sunni, Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Qabbani, said, "This new heinous crime, which entailed the loss of civilian lives, is aimed not against Christians, but against all of Lebanon, civil peace, and national unity."
Foreigners should not exacerbate the situation with their emotional statements for fear of upsetting Lebanese society's fragile accord.
Now the second point. Outside forces have considerable influence over events in Lebanon, but regardless of any political statements, neither Damascus nor Washington will be able to plunge the Lebanese into a civil war against their will if they are wise enough to resist. They should not shift responsibility for their problems on others, even if there are some grounds for doing so. This is one of the tragedies of present-day Iraq, and the Lebanese should not follow suit. The actions of those responsible for terror in Lebanon will become pointless if they realize that they cannot affect Lebanese unity or manipulate the nation.
For the time being, we have been witnessing the opposite. The masterminds of numerous terrorist attacks in Lebanon are skillfully orchestrating events in this country and the rest of the region. But nobody knows their names, or whether they are acting on their own.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
