MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Marianna Belenkaya)
The string of terrorist attacks in Algeria and Morocco in March and April raises several questions. Does it mean that Al Qaeda has established a new base? How will it affect regional security, not only in the Greater Middle East (from North Africa to Afghanistan), but also in the Mediterranean, which is within the sphere of influence of the European Union and NATO?
The latest events in these two North African countries - especially Algeria, where terrorist attacks are common - would not have attracted so much attention from the mass media and, consequently, the international community, but for a number of specific features.
First of all is their quick succession. On March 11, a suicide bomber struck an Internet cafe in Casablanca, Morocco. On April 10, during a police raid in Casablanca three suicide bombers blew themselves up and another one was shot. The next day, suicide bombers carried out two big terrorist attacks in Algeria: near the government building in the center of Algiers and in the east of the city, targeting the headquarters of Interpol's local division and the barracks of a special police unit. Another terrorist attack in Algiers was foiled on April 12. On April 14, explosions were again heard in Casablanca, in the quarter where diplomatic missions are located.
At first, the Algerian and Moroccan authorities tried to deny that Al Qaeda was involved. This is easy to understand: any indication that the terrorist organization could become active in these countries would undermine their economic and political stability. Morocco would no longer be attractive for tourists, while foreign investment would be scared away from some industrial sectors in Algeria.
Nikolai Mokhov, an expert on Algeria, told RIA Novosti that high revenues from oil exports allow the country to spend large sums on infrastructure and construction, attracting foreign companies through tenders. This would stop if investors feared that Algeria might become another Iraq.
This, however, is a distant prospect. Yet given that Morocco and Algeria will soon hold parliamentary elections, the situation in these countries could really be destabilized, especially given sentiments among Muslim youth, who are upset about the policies of the West, particularly the United States, toward Iraq, Palestine and Iran and about globalization according to "the Western model." Extremists often use these sore points to further their aims. It may be a matter of honor for terrorists to prove that the policies used by the Moroccan and, especially, Algerian authorities to fight radical Islam have failed, that neither the stick nor the carrot has helped. There might even be attempts to disrupt the domestic situation in Tunisia, although this is less likely.
It is no coincidence that the group that claimed responsibility for the attacks in Algeria calls itself the Al Qaeda Group in the Maghreb (AQM), which means that it is trying to spread its activities throughout the entire region. Until recently, it was called the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat.
Mokhov says that it is well known that AQM has received financial and organizational support from Al Qaeda since the late 1990s. Recently, information about it has been appearing on websites linked to Al Qaeda, so it appears that the connection between the two groups, especially given that one of them has changed its name, has become official. Mokhov also points out that the terrorist attacks were carried out by suicide bombers, which is typical for Al Qaeda, while Algerian Islamists, including AQM, had until recently used different tactics.
As to the attacks in Morocco, no one has claimed responsibility so far, but experts, including local ones, are positive that the events in both countries have the same root.
Yet another indication of Al Qaeda's involvement is the fact that the recent attacks were connected to the figure 11, which has apparently become the group's trademark. On September 11, 2001, it carried out attacks on the United States; on April 11, 2002, an attack near a synagogue on the Tunisian island of Djerba; and on March 11, 2004, the bombings on Madrid commuter trains.
Apparently, Al Qaeda is using these attacks to stake its claim on North Africa and demonstrate the failure of both the local authorities' counterterrorist policies and the international fight against terrorism. The terrorist base moved from Afghanistan to Iraq and could now move on to North Africa. Experts say that the latest attacks in Algeria and Morocco involved terrorists who had fought in Iraq. This is a challenge to the West, all the more so because the region has close ties with the European Union and NATO, including agreements on security cooperation.
Morocco has already announced its desire to set up a mechanism for counterterrorist cooperation between the Maghreb countries. Yet given the tensions between Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara, the two countries are unlikely to cooperate effectively in any sphere. This means that other countries, especially those who have the potential to become the first targets of Al Qaeda's Mediterranean division, must do what they can to ensure that calls for counterterrorist cooperation are not just empty words and that measures to increase security are really taken.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
