Contrary to Moscow's hopes, it was not the first stop in the new Turkmen president's diplomatic tour. Several days before his Moscow trip, he went to Saudi Arabia, and the haj hardly explains his choice of priorities. Moscow was the second stop, in line with the Eastern system of political symbols. Turkmenistan made it clear that the momentum was still there, no matter how it may respond to the special attention it is getting from the West. The new Turkmen president arrived in Moscow to prove the existence of that momentum. This is the gist of the matter.
Turkmenistan is among the few countries whose sovereignty Russia has always respected. It is probably the only former-Soviet country with which Russia has built relations that are completely free of any verbiage about centuries-long friendship or involvement in some irrational alliances. Turkmen-Russian relations have rested strictly on business, no matter what surprises the current president's predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, might have liked to spring the world. At the end of his life, Niyazov seemed to show amazing reciprocity towards Russia by letting Gazprom contract virtually all Turkmen gas until 2028 and ridding Ukraine, Russia's main rival, of all possible illusions. Even a rise in price to $100 per thousand cubic meters did not seem so disheartening considering that the relevant agreement expires in 2009.
Niyazov had shown more than once that he did not believe contracts were written in stone, and for this reason, Russia's apprehensions persisted even during his lifetime, all the more so since its pragmatic style of dealing with Turkmenistan was readily adopted by other interested parties. Moreover, their number has been steadily growing. Now even Armenia, not to mention Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine, cannot conceal its excitement over proposals for transporting gas via a trans-Caspian pipeline, bypassing Russia. Likewise, all countries that lie along the proposed Nabucco gas pipeline, which would transport Central Asian gas from Erzurum in Turkey to Austria, have announced their interest in the project.
These ideas did not emerge overnight. The hopes for global gas diversification that seemed to have faded away have come back with the change of power in Turkmenistan. However, such hopes were before and are still nothing more than an absorbing exercise in drawing on a geopolitical map. The pipe's underwater leg from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan carries a price tag of five billion dollars. Some 10 years ago, it was half that figure. This is no surprise if we recall the enormous gap between the tentative estimates for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline and its final costs. There are no volunteers lining up to finance the drive to diversify gas supplies just like there were no enthusiastic oil giants ready to pay for the BTC project. In general, these projects have one common feature: their economic practicality lags several years behind political scheming.
But as follows from the history of the same BTC project, sooner or later this gap may be bridged, despite the price and the less-than-ideal route. Therefore, Turkmenistan may take the liberty of making a rather sophisticated and at the same time simple maneuver.
President Berdymukhammedov does not say "no" to anyone - neither to Russia, which he assures of his loyalty, nor to the West, which expects him to take a broader look at the world. He may choose to build the same kind of triangular relationship he currently has with Moscow and Kiev but on a much bigger scale and with different stakes. As a skilful auctioneer, he can wait for new proposals.
There is not even any need to blackmail Moscow independently. On the eve of Berdymukhammedov's visit, Moscow learned that the European Union had already offered 1.7 million euros for a feasibility report on the proposed trans-Caspian pipeline. This money can be accepted without any qualms since such a report has never come with any strings attached. But the West also has to know it is not the only suitor, and it is enough for the Turkmen president to visit Moscow and let the world hear, for the umpteenth time now, about Turkmen loyalty to the established traditions.
There is only one thing that Turkmenistan cannot do: make a final decision. None of its partners, who are compelled to be nice, demand that it do so. The world's interest in the country, particularly while the exact amount of its gas reserves is still unclear, is far from exhausted. His somewhat ambiguous status as a successor does not encourage Berdymukhammedov to take abrupt steps, something which the interested world is also ready to understand.
To sum up, there is a dynamic equilibrium. Today, it has shifted in the direction of Russia, which had to back up its interest with investment proposals. Regardless of the visit's program, both sides have done their bit. Moscow has reason to believe in the momentum shown by Turkmenistan. The world may now expect a third, Western, visit by the Turkmen president, the scenario for which was written a long time ago.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
