Analysts believe that these are natural fluctuations, considering that the Central Bank's efforts to support the dollar are offset not only by market professionals, but also by rank-and-file Russians who have become totally disappointed with the American currency, which was the most popular instrument of personal savings until very recently.
It is hard to overestimate the Central Bank's role in protecting the dollar. The latest trade sessions have demonstrated the following trend - the dollar exchange rate remains stable or goes up a bit only when more or less positive news from the world financial markets are buttressed by the Russian Central Bank's currency interventions. It goes without saying that a certain role is played by positive news, which rarely come from the United States, or the financial markets where the dollar is trying to launch a counteroffensive against the euro. But as a rule, such reports stir the market for a very short time, after which the dollar tends to lose value again.
Experts think that owing to the Central Bank, the dollar has not been falling as fast as it would without its interventions. Although officially, the Russian financial authorities are primarily aiming to curb inflation rather than counter the ruble's consolidation, they continue to control the currency situation and interfere in trade whenever the dollar threatens to dive.
But every trade session at the currency market is making more urgent the question of how long the Central Bank will be able to support the dollar. Backing it in conditions of massive mistrust is a difficult and thankless occupation. The Central Bank's information testifies to the crisis of trust. Thus, in May 2007, the offer of dollars for exchange into rubles by the Russians surpassed the demand for this currency by $1.1 billion. As a result, the net offer of dollars (save purchases) increased almost four-fold compared to February. People in this country got rid of the American currency so fast only on two occasions - in May and December 2006.
One could assume that this is not Russian disappointment with the dollar, but implementation of the government's long-standing dream - consolidation of trust in the ruble, as a result of which Russian citizens are turning their under-the-bed and other U.S. cash savings into rubles. But statistics does not back this assumption. The Russians' demand for the euro is growing at the same pace with which their demand for the U.S. dollar is falling. In the Central Bank's estimate, the net demand for the euro was 0.4 billion - a 50% growth compared to the previous month. In March, the dollar offer grew at the rate of almost double of the relevant euro figure.
The conclusion suggests itself - the Russians are increasingly disenchanted with the dollar as a saving instrument; it is more and more difficult for the Central Bank to "play against everyone," considering that the pressure on the dollar keeps rising because of the growing capital flow into the country. In the first quarter of 2007, the capital flow into Russia reached $13 billion. This is a little less than over a relevant period a year ago - $14.3 billion. But experts do not think that the Central Bank should breathe a sign of relief.
First, a small decline in the first quarter could be seasonal and "the missing $1.3 billion" may well be more than made up for in the next three quarters. This scenario is likely because of the following factors - first, high oil prices allow Russian companies to successfully deploy their assets in the international financial markets, thereby increasing the flow of currency into Russia. Second, even if this flow stands at the desired $13 billion in the next three quarters, the Central Bank's forecast for this year will be exceeded anyway - originally the figure was put at $30 billion and then adjusted to $35 billion.
Experts do not doubt that in reality it will be much higher than that. They are equally convinced that the flow of capital against the backdrop of the dollar's faded glory predicts no bright future either for the U.S. dollar in Russia or its Central Bank.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
