MOSCOW. (Alaxander Karavayev for RIA Novosti)

It is more or less clear what the G8 atmosphere is going to be - the Moscow visit of U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has shown that Washington will not make life difficult for the Russians.

Vladimir Putin's consultations with the EU leaders in Samara have not revealed any new problems, although no concessions were made, either. All sides came to terms with the current crisis and find the pause convenient.

Many issues from the agenda of Rice's visit and the EU-Russia Samara summit coincide. But Russian-American dialogue extends beyond the scope of Europe. Kosovo's future and strategic security are of exceptional importance for Europe, but the keys to their resolution are in the hands of Moscow and Washington. The European agenda has its own features - the summit concentrated on immediate problems - "Polish" meat (which Poland bought from third countries and sold to Russia), controversy with Estonia (the transfer of the monument to the Soviet soldier and Russia's subsequent blockade of Estonian producers and transport) and the Lithuanian government's grievances over limitations of oil supplies to the Mazeikiu oil refinery.

This set of problems only looks economic. It is extremely politicized - the said countries are torpedoing both the summit and the talks. Moreover, there are some long-term issues - energy strategy, access of raw materials producers from third countries to Russia's transport facilities, air transit tariffs and general agreements on the so-called "four spaces." Sooner or later, the latter should produce a new agreement on partnership and cooperation to replace the one expiring late this year.

The current situation is a paradoxical collision. On the one hand, during the last decade the Russian and Western leaders have never met in such a chilly atmosphere as today. But on the other hand, they decided not to aggravate the matter further by concentrating on the conflict. In other words, they have reached a point of balance that allows them to go on with the discussion. Condoleezza Rice even asked the Kremlin to tone down its anti-American statements and received a positive response. True, nobody can guarantee that in the next month the anti-Bush circles in Congress will not come up with strong criticism of Russian-U.S. relations in the media or that the Republican think-tank will not lash out at Putin's Russia.

If we analyze personal contributions of American leaders to foreign policy, it will become clear that Bush is responsible for wars and other disasters. As for achievements, he shares them with Rice. With some reservations, it is possible to say that Rice is not associated with destruction. However, there is one achievement which can be credited exclusively to George Bush - his friendly attitude to Putin is extinguishing the flames of many conflicts. As for Rice, she will have to make a choice in the near future - either become an independent policy-maker with good chances for presidency after 2012, or remain loyal to Bush and his family till the very end. In the latter case, she will have to quit the political arena together with the current administration and some of its negative aura. If Rice is oriented to the future she should retire in the next six months or a year. Therefore, Rice should be viewed as a politician that could potentially exercise major influence on Russian-U.S. relations.

The alignment at the future G8 summit is more or less clear - George Bush is almost the only Putin's colleague who is more or less friendly. Initially, Tony Blair and Putin seemed to understand each other but today Russian and British foreign policies are poles apart.

Angela Merkel is not going to follow in the wake of Helmut Schroeder. Nicolas Sarkozy's position is not clear enough, but it is already obvious that Paris and Washington will not be as divided as they were after the U.S. invasion of Iraq. However, Washington is not happy about its problem-ridden relations with the EU. The only predictable moment is the traditional differences between the two "sworn friends" - Washington and Moscow. Nothing is new here - the same convenient-for-all stability of strategic confrontation; the only difference from the 1970s is the new terms of global interdependence.

Bush is quite a convenient president for the Kremlin. In this sense, Moscow has been lucky to some extent. The White House has curbed the tide of anti-Russian criticism. A difference in attitude will be revealed with the advent of the new administration in 2009.

To sum up, on the eve of the G8 summit Moscow and Washington have agreed not to exacerbate the situation before the departure of the Bush Administration and a series of elections in Russia. There is no doubt that both Russia and the United States will be pleased with the future summit.

Alaxander Karavayev works for the news and analysis centre at Moscow State University.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.