Common threats of Central Asia

Subscribe

MOSCOW. (Fakhriddin Nizamov, member of the RIA Novosti Expert Council) - Regional security does not wholly depend on internal factors.

Big geopolitical players are skillfully using destabilizing elements such as separatism, ethnic problems or suppression of political rights in order to enhance their influence.

In so doing, they often conceal their strictly economic goals under political slogans and talk of Western values. But the regions are resisting heavy pressure. Southeast Asia has come up with Asian values, while Russia speaks about sovereign democracy. Central Asian countries have stepped up the elaboration of the national idea because they want to be immune both to regressive (religious) and progressive (secular) fundamentalism.

This is how Mobashar Jawed Akbar, the editor of the Asian Age, described the current ideological threats to Central Asian countries. Exporters of Western values do not like being reproached for democratic fundamentalism. They know well that divorced from national traditions, religious sentiments and mentality, democracy is doomed, but they do not stop. In many cases, their pressure is negatively affecting security in many regions, including Central Asia.

Indian expert Ramakant Dwivedi believes that sometimes external impact is useful for the renewal of the internal system and consolidation of forces in the drive against both external and internal threats. They are interlinked and require a comprehensive approach. All sides should participate in a search for a common approach.

Today, Central Asia as an integral whole is not ready for modern challenges and risks. This is an alarming situation because some analysts predict a growing threat to both regional and global security, especially if there is a crisis around Iran, and the Iraqi and Afghan problems remain unresolved. A package of internal and external threats may seriously destabilize Central Asia.

It is not yet ready to counter these processes in full measure. For the time being, it can only minimize the negative regional phenomena. It is particularly important for Central Asian states to step up their cooperation. Such regional agencies as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could play a decisive role in this process.

It is no secret that each republic in the region is determining its home and foreign policies proceeding from its own interests, location, economic potential, and linguistic and cultural affinity with its neighboring and other countries. This leads to the concepts of neutral pragmatism and multi-vector policy. This is acceptable for national interests but is a source of concern for regional security. Lack of coordination and different orientation of Central Asian countries create a fertile soil for the exacerbation of the geopolitical struggle between the external power centers - not only great powers but also international terrorist organisations and major criminal groups engaged in drug trafficking.

Paradoxically, Western countries, which need Central Asian energy more than anyone else, are still making political demands as they did in the early 1990s. As the local political elites describe this, the West is putting the cart before the horse, although the experience of Georgia, Ukraine and especially Kyrgyzstan has shown that "velvet" revolutions cannot be an effective instrument of development. They are plunging local societies into the abyss of a permanent struggle for power. This struggle is turning into a strong destabilizing factor and does not help the region's countries to deal with one of their biggest problems - economic backwardness and poverty of the majority of the population. Discipline and stability are essential for prosperity. This may be a dubious assertion from a democratic point of view, but such is the harsh reality of the region.

Therefore, Russia, India and China are hurrying to invest money in the region and offer it mutually advantageous economic projects. Pakistan has also become markedly more active of late. Before, the presence of terrorist groups threatening Central Asian security was the only obstacle to the development of normal relations, whereas now the attempts to oust them from the region are openly welcomed. It is enough to mention the recent agreement between Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan on the construction of a railway from the Uzbek Termez to Pakistani Peshawar via Kabul. In turn, China is planning to build part of the railway to link its western areas with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The West is not alone in being drawn to the region's rich energy resources.

The Afghan factor of destabilization deserves special mention. The failure of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to consider the local reality is diminishing its chances of success. One gets the impression that Western countries, the United States above all, are fighting not against the terrorists but for the right to keep their presence in the region as long as possible. As a result, the Afghans no longer hope that IASF will make their lives better and are fleeing to the Taliban.

Moreover, some analysts believe that the West is pushing the Karzai government to reconciliation with the Taliban. If the latter returns to power after the ISAF's departure, Afghanistan may turn into an even bigger hotbed of tensions. The independent Central Asian republics will be the first to feel this. Military experts believe that they will have to increase their defense expenditures, but this will hardly produce any results.

In a word, experts are not very optimistic about the region's stability. But Central Asian security is still in its infancy. This is a very sensitive process for a number of reasons. It requires mutual trust and concessions, for which government leaders are not always ready. This makes it difficult for the sides to harmonize their national interests, which are sometimes at variance with each other. Elaboration of a well-orchestrated policy largely depends on the balance of interests between external players, who have different influence on the region's countries. Regional agencies have a big role to play in undoing the tight knot of problems, because no country will be safe without guaranteed security of Central Asia as a region.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

Newsfeed
0
To participate in the discussion
log in or register
loader
Chats
Заголовок открываемого материала